COMMENT

Methinks the US Air Force is unprofessionally cheerleading and stretching definitions of having  “flown” a Next-Generation Air Dominance aircraft, until proven otherwise. The USAF has then prevented any chance of public verification due to its wall of security “classification”. 

What could the Sixth Generation Aircraft “prototype” amount to?

SUMMARY

Wiki reports“On September 14, 2020, the USAF announced [via DefenseNews] that a prototype aircraft part of the Next-Generation Air Dominance [NGAD] program had flown for the first time at the Air Force Foundation's Air, Space, and Cyber Conference. The details remain highly classified. There are no available details about the plane's first flight date and location or capabilities. Additionally, there is no available information on who the manufacturer of the aircraft is.”

DEFENSENEWS ARTICLE

The announcement: came via Valerie Insinnaat DefenseNews, who, in an excellent article, reportedSeptember 14, 2020:

“The US Air Force has built and flown a mysterious full-scale prototype of its future fighter jet”

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Air Force has secretly designed, built and flown at least one prototype of its enigmatic next-generation fighter jet, [Will Roper] the service’s top acquisition official confirmed to Defense News on Sept. 14.

The development is certain to shock the defense community, which last saw the first flight of an experimental fighter during the battle for the Joint Strike Fighter contract 20 years ago. With the Air Force’s future fighter program still in its infancy, the rollout and successful first flight of a demonstrator was not expected for years.

“We’ve already built and flown a full-scale flight demonstrator in the real world, and we broke records in doing it,” Will Roper told Defense News in an exclusive interview ahead of the Air Force Association’s Air, Space and Cyber Conference. “We are ready to go and build the next-generation aircraft in a way that has never happened before.”

Almost every detail about the aircraft itself will remain a mystery due to the classification of the Next Generation Air Dominance program, the Air Force’s effort for fielding a family of connected air warfare systems that could include fighters, drones and other networked platforms in space or the cyber realm. [IS THAT MEANT TO PROVE “FLOWN”?]

Roper declined to comment on how many prototype aircraft have been flown or which defense contractors manufactured them. He wouldn’t saywhen or where the first flight occurred. And he refused to divulge any aspect of the aircraft’s design — its mission, whether it was uncrewed or optionally crewed, whether it could fly at hypersonic speeds or if it has stealth characteristics.

Those attributes, he said, are beside the point.

The importance, Roper said...”In fact, [we’ve] not just checked the boxes, [we’ve] demonstrated something that’s truly magical.” ["magical" WTF! Really professional USAF language?]

Now, the Next Generation Air Dominance program, or NGAD, sits at a decision point. Roper declined to say how quickly the Air Force could move its next-gen fighter into production, except to say “pretty fast.” But before the service decides to begin producing a new generation of fighters, it must determine how many aircraft it will commit to buy and when it wants to start purchasing them — all choices that could influence the fiscal 2022 budget.

The program itself has the potential to radically shake up the defense industry. Should the Air Force move to buy NGAD in the near term, it will be adding a challenger to the F-35 and F-15EX programs, potentially putting those programs at risk...and perhaps give SpaceX founder Elon Musk a shot at designing an F-35 competitor.

“I have to imagine there will be a lot of engineers — maybe famous ones with well-known household names with billions of dollars to invest — that will decide starting the world’s greatestaircraft company to build the world’s greatest aircraft with the Air Force is exactly the kind of inspiring thing they want to do as a hobby or even a maingig,” [the USAF's] Roper said.

The disclosure of a flying full-scale fighter prototype could be just what the Air Force needs to garner more financial support from Congress during a critical time where the service is facing budget constraints and needs to gain momentum, said Mackenzie Eaglen, a defense budget analyst with the American Enterprise Institute."

SEE WHOLE EXCELLENT DEFENSENEWS ARTICLE

COMMENT

The USAF's over-the-top Trumpadorian language suits snake oil selling well!

This rendering of a Next Generation Air Dominance aircraft, by Lockheed Martin, shows a tailless stealthy future fighter. (Lockheed Martin) (Courtesy via DefenseNews 2019)

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This artist's rendering from Boeing shows one concept for the Air Force's future fighter, known as Next Generation Air Dominance. (Boeing)(Courtesy via DefenseNews 2019)
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Anonymous kindly provided many details on September 23 to 29, 2020, regarding diesel generators (diesels) and Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) for Japan's newest submarines. I have noted these changes in the revised  SORYU TABLE below the details.

Anonymous's September 23 to 29, 2020 comments are:

"Japan’s Ministry of Defense (MoD) is building 3,000 ton submarines as successors to the Soryus, and the fourth ship (02SS) [1] will be equipped with new diesels [2].

[1] "SS" numbers and Financial Year names for Japanese submarines are based on the era of reigning Japanese Emperors. So that is the eras of former Emperor "Heisei" and present Emperor "Reiwa". Hence the names of the newest (post Soryu) Japanese submarines are 29SS, 30SS, 01SS and 02SS for Financial Years 2017 (Heisei 29), 2018 (Heisei 30), 2019 (Reiwa 01) and 2020 (Reiwa 02), respectively.

[2] The final two Soryus, which use LIBs, are 27SS and 28SS. LIBs makes them "Soryu Mk IIs". The early New Class 3,000 ton (surfaced) submarines (29SS, 30SS, 01SS) will be equipped with 12V32/25S diesels which are longer stroke versions of the 12V25/25SB used for LAB+AIP Soryu Mk Is. Performance of new diesel generators for 02SS seems to be improved significantly.

[Pete Comment: the New Class will likely be assigned a name of a Japanese mythological creature (eg. a mermaid or a different dragon than "Soryu", etc)] 

02SS will also equip with improved LIBs. The electrical system for LIB-submarines is summarized as follows:

-  Soryu (27SS, 28SS): LIBs type SLH (see SLH explationation below); with 2 x Kawasaki 
   12V25/25SB or 12V25/31 diesels

-  first 3 subs of the New 3,000 ton Class (29SS, 30SS, 01SS): LIBs type SLH and
   2 x 12V/25/31 diesels

-  4th sub of 3,000 ton class (02SS): LIBs type improved SLH [1], new diesel [2]

[1]  According to the ex-Minister of Defense, improved SLH LIBs with better performance had been
       developed but was not immediately adopted due to defense budget shortfalls.

[2]  As an item for a new diesel was not found in R&D planning for submarine, a new diesel might be
       based on an existing diesel (e.g., the 12V25/25SB) being a largely modified version of the
       12V/25/31.

Noise testing by KHI, for new or modified diesels took place in a simulated pressure hull, which was constructed by KHI in 2019. This strongly suggests that the new diesel 02SS is made by KHI.

Judging from specifications of the NDS (National Defense Standard), output of 12V25/25S is 2,000kW  and it may be an evolution from the diesel for 29SS (12V25/31). Output of a new diesel for 02SS is expected to be more than that of 12V25/31 (2,500-2,800kW) and to be 3,000kW or more.

In this case of a 3,000kW-output, the indiscretion ratio (IR) of 02SS might be 4%-5%. As ex-Vice Admiral Masao Kobayashi [see his photo and biodata here] suggested charging of LIBs would be conducted outside the operational sea area. Then the real IR of 02SS may be considerably lower (less than 1%?). [Pete Note: "A submarine’s indiscretion rate [or ratio] is defined as the percentage of time a submarine spends snorting. This indiscretion rate depends strongly on the energy discharged from the batteries and the diesel generators’ capacity to recharge the batteries. Typical snorting indiscretion rates [of LAB submarines] are between five and twenty per cent"]

[1] NDS F80182D [General Rules of Rotating Electric Machine for Ship] 4.1 a) and 4.1 g) specify rated output of AC generator and rated speed AC generator driven diesel, respectively, as follows:

4.1 a) 80, 100, 160, 200, 300,400, 500, 600, 800, 1000, 1200, 1500, 1800, 2000, 2500, 2800, 3000 [kW]

and

4.1 g) 900, 1200 or 1800 [rpm]

[2] SHIPS OF THE WORLD 2020, No930, Page109

“Output of KAWASAKI 12V25/25S for Oyashio is 3400PS (=2040kW)”

Latest information on battery arrangement for Oryu (27SS), a Soryu Mk II, was reported at [1] below. There, additional LIBs are loaded in a double deck arrangement in place of LOx for AIP tanks [as there is no AIP on Mk IIs] see [2] below. 

Then, amount of batteries in Oryu (27SS) and Toryu (28SS) seem to be twice as much as those in Soryu Mk Is [which have LABs and much space taken up by AIP chemicals and Stirling engines], suggesting loading of 960 LIB-arrays (total energy, 70MWh?). 27SS and 28SS might show better performance previously reported here, in Submarine Matters.

[1] SHIPS OF THE WORLD 2020, No935

[2] at http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2016/09/pressure-hull-alloys-debate-titanium.html see the “Cutaway diagram of a Soryu submarine”

In the Oryu (27SS), LOx tanks in section 10 are removed, doubled decker structure is adopted for section 10 and filled with additional LIBs (240 LIB-arrays x 2).

SLH

Japan’s Ministry of Defense (MoD) discloses purchasing information in detail but not perfectly. SLH is a model name of a LIB for submarine. SLH is made by GS YUASA. Specifications of equipment are classified as “old”, “revised” and “new” for existing, revised and new models, respectively.

Specification class of SLH for 02SS in FY2020 is “revised”, suggesting that LIB for 02SS is an  improved version of LIBs (“old” SLH) for 01SS. If LIB is fully model changed, new model name is selected and specification is “new”.

Specification of the 2 diesels for 02SS in FY2020 are classified as “new”, suggesting that they are a new model.

 In 27SS, improvements other than LIBs are achieved, and 28SS Toryu improves 27SS somewhat.

By the way, an ex-Vice Admiral (not Kobayashi) of JMSDF said nuclear submarine is needed in future, because even LIB-submarine is still powerless (10% energy of nuclear submarine). RAN might have the same idea for Australia."

[See most of the diesel and battery details incorporated in the revised SORYU TABLE below.]

Anonymous and Pete

When there is this kind of crisis some countries feel they can take advantage of US "peacemaking".  Usually the US Lame-duck presidential period presents opportunities, but a very ill US President even more so. 

Countries can most quickly boost border tensions or take the prize they have coveted for so long. 

Possible scenarios include:

1. China invades Taiwan

2. China being much more assertive in South China and East China Seas, eg. China cracking down on
    US FONOPs.

3. China cracks down even more in Hong Kong, eg. 100s-1,000s of arrests rather than just a few.

4. Heightened North Korean border tensions with South Korea.

5. Increased Russia boosting of Ukrainian civil war, Russia advancing into Baltic States or

6. Russian and/or Belarus authoritarian Government violently "restoring order" against democratic
    Belarussian protesters.

7. Many Middle Eastern possibilities - including Iraq, Syria, Israel, Iran, blowing up oil facilities, Saudi-
    Yemen, etc. Oil rise spikes. 

8. Increased skirmishing on India-China border, India-Pakistan skirmishing and airstrikes.

Many other opportunistic scenarios while US "peacemaking" is sleeping and while other countries, and the UN, are focussing/reacting to US happenings.

Trump's joyride on, October 4th, to wave to supporters outside Walter Reed Hospital, shocked health experts and other sensible people. 

Trump reasons, that as he is The Boss, normal quarantine measures, to minimize risk to others, don't apply to a great man, like him. 

"It also sums up why his approval ratings have been stuck below 50 per cent through his entire presidency and why he is significantly trailing Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the polls less than a month before election day.

Trump's willingness to ROPE IN SEVERAL SECRET SERVICE AGENTS TO SIT IN A CAR WITH HIM so that he could wave to supporters outside Walter Reed Medical Centre [yesterday], shocked medical experts who said HE HAD ENDANGERED LIVES.

[The car is hermetically sealed, for security reasons, thus increasing the chances Trump’s breath and feverish sweat will infect people inside the car].

"Every single person in the vehicle during that completely unnecessary presidential 'drive-by' just NOW HAS TO BE QUARANTINED FOR 14 DAYS," tweeted James Phillips, an attending physician at Walter Reed.

"They might get sick. THEY MAY DIE. FOR POLITICAL THEATRE. Commanded by Trump to put their lives at risk for theatre. This is insanity."

Explaining what she would do if Trump were her patient and suggested such a ride, Dr Leana Wen, a visiting health professor at George Washington University, said: "I'd call security to restrain him then perform a psychiatric evaluation to examine his decision-making capacity."

MORE SEE http://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-reckless-joyride-tops-bible-holding-photo-opp-in-washington-20201005-p5622b.html

-----------------------------------------------------

Here is Trump exposing himself in the car (on the second day of Walter Reed Hospital quarantine)  here https://youtu.be/CS4pGkfF37Q and below.

Following “Soryu and New Japanese Submarine Class Table” of September 30, 2020 Anonymous, on October 4, 2020, advised [with some word changes by Pete for improved English]:

The price of new SLH LIBs for Soryu Mk II (27SS Oryu, 28SS Toryu) and the New “3,000ton” Class submarine (8.6 B yen for 29SS, 8.4 B yen for 30SS) are nearly same suggesting the following.

First, the unit price of a LIB module is 8.75 million yen (hence 8.4 Billion yen for 960 modules) nearly three times as expensive as a corresponding 3 million yen LAB module. The LIB modules are significantly cheaper than previously expected [1].

Second, a New Class (3,000t) submarine will be equipped with the same amount of LIBs as a Soryu Mk II [2, 3, 4].

[1] Cost of underwater electricity supply system (LIBs) of a Soryu Mk II and a New “3,000t” Class submarine is nearly twice as expensive as [the 5 Billion Yen price?] of a Soryu Mk I's (LABs and AIP). In a Soryu Mk I the price of 480 LABs [totals around 1.5 Billion Yen?] and the prices of 4 Stirling AIP engines and the LOx tank is also added. 

[2] Maximum power output for Oryu, a Soryu Mk II is reduced to 4,200kW from 6,000kW for a Soryu Mk I suggesting maximum speed of 18knots for Oryu down from 20knots for a Soryu Mk I [8knot/20knot)^3*6000kW=4200kW].

I doubt a Soryu Mk I can efficiently achieve a maximum speed of 20knots as this may cause problems such as permanent damage to the propulsion system. Therefore, a reduction of maximum speed to 18knots in a Soryu Mk II, is a more realistic speed to avoid permanent damage to the propulsion system.

[3] Judging from the direction of Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD) R&D for submarine, the undetected performances (including quietness and maximum silent speed) have improved for Soryu Mk IIs and the New “3,000t” Class submarines. 

[4] In the Soryu Mk II, based on the previous AIP sectional loading structure, additional LIBs are loaded in a double deck manner (in section 10 above diagram) in place of the large LOx tank that would have been in the Soryu Mk I. This LIB arrangement also provides an improved center of gravity. In contrast, the New “3,000t” Class submarine may have an optimal arrangement of LIBs all on the bottom with a newly developed non-AIP sectional structure.

By Anonymous

In answer to Benjamin's Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) Aircraft, specifically  Fighter question of October 4, 2020.

I'd say, as the US is still at the beginning of the process of operationally massdeploying its 3 variants of 5th Generation (Gen) F-35s AND the US is in the middle of developing its 5th-6th Gen B-21s, then 6th Gen FIGHTER deployment may begin in the late 2030s. 

If the 6th Gen FIGHTER is of flying wing configuration, then lack of tails would normally prevent a fighter from radically manoeuvring in a dogfight. However if it has highly developed vectored thrust jets that could be a way of manoeuvring radically.

Tailless, flying wings, tend to have low radar observability. They also tend to be subsonic. The major reason being flying wing configuration prioritizers stealth as being the No.1 priority. Also going supersonic is very non-stealthily Noisy and it can generate IR visible Heat in the engine ducts and airframe generally. But a 6th Gen fighter being able to fly supersonic is desirable, if not essential. 

[Even 6th Gen fighters, in peacetime, need to be able to intercept and escort out fighters trespassing on national airspace. Its no good shooting a missile or directed energy (laser) weapon at a trespassing aircraft in peacetime. As Japan has found, to see off-escort trespassing Chinese fighters, that are travelling supersonic, Japan's F-35s are often not fast enough or manoeuvrable enough. Japan is therefore upgrading its (faster and more manoeuvrable than F-35s) F-15s to extend their lives. This is rather than simply replacing its F-15 interceptors with relatively slow, less manoeuvrable, F-35s.

So, over time, Japan and other F-35 customers, will demand faster, more manoeuvrable, fighters or more upgrades to existing-effective interceptor-fighters. Don't be surprised if the US begins to make available, assembly-line-restarted export-grade F-22s for its allies, from the late 2020s.]

As well as for peacetime interception, being able to traval supersonically will be important for a 6th Gen fighter to get from its base (or aircraft carrier) to the area of combat quickly. 

For 6th Gen flying wing fighters, new advanced more powerful engines, new airframe materials and sonic boom mitigation advances may allow a 6th Gen fighter to operate supersonically, be manoeuvrable and be stealthy, simultaneously. But such a 6th Gen aircraft may only be mature in the late 2030s. In the meantime the US's closest Western allies, who have already bought F-35s, may be offered export grade F-22s, at a price.

Pete

Australia’s Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter (APDR)released an interesting article, on September 29, 2020, about a less known bilateral activity, see https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/ran-singapore-complete-naval-exercise-singaroo/

“RAN, Singapore complete naval Exercise SINGAROO”

“The Royal Australian Navy (RAN) and the Republic of Singapore Navy have completed the bilateral Exercise SINGAROO in Southeast Asia, marking its 25th year. This year, the guided missile destroyer HMAS Hobart, auxiliary oiler HMAS Sirius and an embarked MH-60R helicopter joined four Singaporean warships, a submarine, and aircraft from the Republic of Singapore Air Force to train together to enhance professional ties and interoperability. HMA Ships Hobart and Sirius left their home ports in June for a Regional Presence Deployment to exercise in Southeast Asia and Hawaii, and participated in Exercise SINGAROO as they returned transit through the region.

Minister for Defence Linda Reynolds said Exercise SINGAROO is a biennial event built on existing shared mariner skills between both navies. “Operating effectively together at sea relies on regular joint training opportunities to improve our interoperability. This three-day exercise underlines the importance of military-to-military cooperation as an avenue to hone our expertise and build on our ability to work together,”...”

MORE OF THIS APDR ARTICLE HERE

This short 6 minute, September 2020, "sub brief" Youtube at https://youtu.be/LWM259XA19I and below:

If only the Grishas had the extra tonnage to carry ASW helicopters their tactics would have been far more effective in hunting "free world" submarines. But that is next week's story.

Shawn C. made some very interesting comments on October 8, 2020 [with further comments added by Pete in [...] brackets] :

The [Republic of Singapore Navy] RSN had a video [lasting 2 minutes called "Look back on 25 years of Ex SINGAROO" dated September 25, 2020] on [the RSN's] Facebook page:  https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=454085885508149 [The video is very dramatic, great theme music, with vessels (eg. a Challenger-classsubmarine) aircraft, personnel and weapons firing.]

------------------ 

Quite a busy period for Royal Australian Navy (RAN) Task Group commander Captain Phillipa Hay [some biodata, also about her RIMPAC command]. She provides 4min, 30sec, briefing at https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=4036503553109501

------------------- 

Singapore's F-15SGs train in Australia's Northern Territory About 200 RSAF personnel will use the training grounds for flight and live weapons training. (Photo courtesy, Republic Of Singapore Air Force/Facebook via Straits Times.)
---

VIDEO

This is the 2 minute, 30 second Chinese video (carried by China's CCTV and also Global Times) here https://youtu.be/DPp_Guk3GEc "Joint multidimensional landing drill conducted in sea areas of East and South China" aka Chinese PLA Invasion of Taiwan Drill (with stirring music).  

ARTICLE

Liu Zhenin Beijing for Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post (SCMP) reports. October 11, 2020 https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3105059/chinese-military-stages-island-invasion-drill-during-taiwans 

“Chinese military stages island invasion drill during Taiwan’s ‘Double Tenth’ holiday”

The large-scale PLA exercise saw units moving from multiple locations in a simulated air and seaborne attack

The exercise came as [Taiwan’s] President Tsai Ing-wen called for meaningful dialogue with the mainland during celebration to mark the foundation of the Republic of China.”

The People’s Liberation Army held a large-scale exercise that simulated the invasion of an island during Taiwan’s Double Tenth holiday, Chinese state media has reported.

The drill included new units such as drones, special forces and airborne troops, and saw forces moving from multiple locations in the coastal provinces of Guangdong and Fujian, some of them by night, state broadcaster CCTV reported.

“This exercise, with the effective integration of multiple new combat forces, increased the PLA’s capabilities in joint landings and three-dimensaional assaults,” the report said."

[as the SCMP article asks you to sign up more coverage is here https://sg.news.yahoo.com/chinese-military-stages-island-invasion-125655756.html

Nuclear propulsion gives ballistic missile submarines significant strategic and tactical advantages. So, facing a nuclear armed North Korea, South Korea is displaying the signs of seeking such a capability. Nuclear propulsion provides for much more rapid discrete movement and much longer term discrete/submerged operation.

On Oct 25, 2019I wrote the article South Korea Looking at France’s Barracuda SSN or Just the K15 Reactor. It is significant that France’s K15 reactor, that powers its Barracuda (Suffren-class) SSN, uses Low Enriched Uranium (LEU)of 7.5% (see page 66 here). LEU is more acceptable, from a nuclear proliferation politico-legal viewpoint, than HEU - as higher percentages of HEU (40% in the tamper secondary stage at a minimum) can be used for nuclear weapons.

So it comes as less of a surprise that a South China Morning Post (SCMP) article, dated October 6, 2020https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3104424/south-koreas-request-submarine-nuclear-fuel-us-denied-reportreported:

“Citing an unidentified diplomatic source in Washington, [South Korean news site DONG-A ILBO] said South Korea [in September 2020] briefed the US side on its plan to develop [SSBNs] and expressed its wish to be supplied with low-enriched uranium from the USto use as fuel for the subs.” But “its initial request has been turned down by Washington” due to the US-SK Agreement for Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation (aka “123 Agreement”)

Providing context for this South Korean LEU request, SCMP further reported, October 6, 2020:

“As part of its programme to build up its military capabilities over the next five years, South Korea’s defence ministry in August [2020] unveiled a plan to develop three 3,600-4,000-tonne submarines, [what I termed “KSS III Batch III”s in 2019] which would be capable of carrying more ballistic missiles than the existing [KSS III] 3,000-tonne submarines.

The defence ministry is keeping open the possibility that the new subs could be powered by nuclear fuel instead of diesel fuel, although a ministry spokesman said that details “have not yet been fixed as to the propulsion methods of the submarines”

COMMENT

As the US Trump Administration has rejected South Korea’s enriched Uranium request just weeks before the US November 3, 2020 Elections, it is possible South Korea is waiting on whether any incoming Biden Administration might reverse the LEU rejection decision.

LEU and other aspects of a nuclear propelled ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) capability are interlinked. South Korea could only develop a submarine reactor and an SSBN design from scratch with great difficulty. So it is more likely South Korea would seek the elements of an SSBN deterrent system from a combination of countries.

Failing US LEU approval South Korea might:

-  again discuss with Russia, as South Korea did in 2017, a naval reactor design.

-  renew what likely have been discrete talks with France on K15 reactor design and Barracuda variant
   as an SSBN and also French sourced or designed LEU for a K15 reactor. In terms of SLBMs South
   Korea would also be aware France, in the 1960s, helped Israel develop the Jericho ballistic missile
   for nuclear warhead delivery system. This was while France, in the 1950s/60s, was also building
   Israel's Dimona/Negev Reactor Center for nuclear explosives, including the Plutonium
   Reprocessing Plant. 

OR

-  South Korea could enrich its own LEU. In 2000 South Korea laser enrich uranium to 77%.
   Enriching its own Uranium is the only way South Korea can guarantee supply. However to do so
   South Korea would still politically need US permission and need US influence over the IAEA and
   other non-proliferation forums. The US can always remove its armed forces from South Korea, if US
   policies are not heeded.

South Korean risks, policies and technical transitions to develop nuclear tipped SLBMs will be the subject of a future article.

The Japan Times reports on October 14, 2020, in MHI's Kobe shipyard, Japan launched and named the first of a new class of submarine. Following my September 29, 2020 prediction that "the New Class would likely be assigned a name of a Japanese mythological creature" this has occurred. 

The first submarine of class (and with it Class Name) has been named "Taigei" ("Big Whale") after the WWII submarine tender Taigei which was converted into the Japanese aircraft carrier Ryuho. 

See Taigei, with further details, in the Table below.

Japanese Submarine Table as at October 14, 2020. 

"Jive" of Sub Brief gives a briefing on Soviet ASW Helicopter Tactics in the Youtube here https://youtu.be/eBxXIwJCjv4 and above.

The helicopters illustrated are Kamov Ka-25 Hormones especially designed for ASW. They carry a  dipping sonar and a light weight torpedo or 2).

Helicopters work more effectivey in concert with warships. The warship and its helicopter can operate active and/or passive sonars. For example (a Harbin Z-9) can operate from a Chinese Type 056 corvette of around 1,500 tons. 

A rotary wing UAV eg. the VSR700, of 700kg max takeoff weight, might be able to operate off an even smaller vessel, 

               Torpedo Counter Measure
               (TCM) System

                                                          Command        Non-Hull
                                                           Center            Penetrating Masts
Main Motor                                                                 (eg. photonics)        Anechoic Tiles

All information from friends of Submarine Matters, October 15 to 17, 2020 here. 

English captions translated from Japanese by Abao coincide with original Japanese. 

Cutaway image of Japan's new submarine Taigei (Source: Japan Maritime Staff Office Public Relations Office, October 2020) via https://news.yahoo.co.jp/byline/takahashikosuke/20201014-00202968/ provided by Anonymous October 15, 20120. 

More than the 640 likely LIB battery modules on Taigei and the Soryu Mk IIs (Oryu and Toryu) is possible, although evidence on this is not definite. Maybe 3 x 240 = 720 in bottom decks is possible. Twice as many batteries 2 x 480 = 960 is less likely if double decks are required.

According to several sources, including Janes(October 14, 2020), Japan’s new Taigei class submarine will have almost identical dimensions/displacement (length 84m, beam 9.1m, draught 10.4m, and standard [surfaced] displacement of about 3,000 tonnes) compared to Soryu Mk I and II class’s (84m, 9.1m, 10.3m, standard displacement of 2,950 tonnes).The main change will be/is replacement of the Soryu Mk I’s AIP (Stirling engines, Hydrogen and LOx tanks) with more batteries in the Oryu, Toryu and the Taigeiclass. But how many extra batteries is not publically known.

So the almost identical Soryu/Taigei dimensions/displacement means the Taigei class represents a something for something switch rather than the usual larger submarine class replacing its predecessor.

In the Table at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2017/03/comparison-of-soryu-modes-of-electrical.htmlAnonymous indicates:
-  Soryu Mk Is have 480 LAB modules and
-  Soryu Mk IIs [ie Oryu and Toryu and presumably the Taigei-class] may have 576 or 672 LIB modules
   [or some number in between]

Here https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2017/05/first-picture-of-libs-and-labs-for.htmlAnonymous indicates dimensions and weights of modules are:
-  LAB is 444mm x 432mm x 1,665mm and weighing 880kg, and 
-  LIB is 444mm x 431mm x 1,647mm and weighing 770kg

If accurate this demonstrates that LAB and LIB battery modules for Japanese submarines are of similar dimensions and weights. It is likely Japan would not drastically increase the number of modules.

For example, even when Soryu Mk I’s AIP (Stirling engines, Hydogen and LOx tanks) are removed Japan might not double the number of 480 modules to 960 (in a Soryu Mk II (Oryu and Toryu) or Taigei class) submarine as this may make the submarine too heavy and take up too much of a submarine’s space/volume.

Also, as Anonymous advises, a double deck arrangements (if used) is unstable in terms of top heavy balance/buoyancy and increases “stray magnetic fields” see paragraph [4] at http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2020/10/electrical-propulsion-costs-soryu-mk_5.html. So it is more likely Japan has maintained a single deck, “all on bottom” arrangement. 

As there are electrical power/engineering and measurement/slot advantages of having a simple multiple of batteries of the same size then exactly one third more than 480 modules of the 444mm x 432mm LAB measurement equals 640 modules of the 444mm x 431mm LIB measuement on Oryu, Toryu and Taigei.

If/As the LIBs are slightly shorter at 1,647mm they can fit into the LABs 1,665mm slots. This may also allow some space for active and/or passive heat dispersal and fire suppressant fittings for the LIBs (if needed). Also if the LIBs weigh just 770kg compared to each LAB’s 880kg that is another reason (in addition to AIP removal) that more LIBs can fit – in terms of not increasing the Taigei class’s weight unduly. 

Supporting the 640 LIB module estimate is Japan’s defense agency ATLA'slists of central procurement items.“SMC-8B specification” p.9, part translated at http://blog.livedoor.jp/wispywood2344/others/SMC-8B%20P_9_s.pngwhich indicates the [submarine] “is powered by 2 groups of battery modules, each consisting of 320 battery modules...” ATLA’s lists suggests this battery specification of Taigeiis the same as Oryu and Toryu ie. 640 battery modules.

More than 640 battery modules is possible, although there is less definite evidence of more than 640. Twice as many batteries as the 480 in Soryu Mk Is is unlikely for the reasons stated above. Maybe 3 x 240 = 720 in bottom decks is possible. More evidence for these numbers, which may appear in months or years, is needed.       

Of interest is ATLA’s current listed research activity - as at October 19, 2020:  "Conduct research on electricity storage system with large capacity and high density, electricity supply system with high efficient and compact sized to extend submarines’ underwater endurance without increasing ship size." (Diagram and caption courtesy ATLA, October 2020, at https://www.mod.go.jp/atla/en/soubi_kansen.html).
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Reuters reports,  October 20, 2020: 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indonesia-usa-exclusive/exclusive-indonesia-rejected-u-s-request-to-host-spy-planes-officials-idUSKBN2750KX 

PETE COMMENT

It appears Japan has maintained a large Plutonium stockpile because Plutonium, being the most common, modern, nuclear explosive, gives Japan a future option of a nuclear weapons capability.

Alternatively Japan maintains such a high profile nuclear breakout capacity to encourage continuing US maintenance of the nuclear deterrent umbrella against Japan's possible enemies (North Korea, China and Russia). 

Japan and the US both realize that if Japan moved toward building its own nuclear deterrent this would severely destabilize the power balance in East Asia, eg. leading North Korea and China to rapidly enlarge their nuclear arsenals. Also South Korea and Taiwan might be tempted to follow Japan's indigenous nuclear weapons lead. 

So the US is better off maintaining the nuclear umbrella so Japan doesn't need to build its own.

ARTICLE

MARI YAMAGUCHI for Associated Press, has written an excellent article, dated October 21, 2020, at https://apnews.com/article/cabinets-recycling-yoshihide-suga-energy-policy-japan-66218c8a44a498a1535380066da466e9.

“Japan sticks to nuke fuel cycle despite plutonium stockpile”

TOKYO (AP) — Japan’s government said Wednesday it will pursue its nuclear fuel recycling program that would involve extracting plutonium from spent fuel, despite international concerns about the country’s already huge plutonium stockpile and lack of prospects for effectively consuming it as nuclear fuel.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato, at a meeting with the governor of Aomori prefecture, home to Japan’s pending nuclear fuel reprocessing plant, reaffirmed that new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s government will pursue the country’s nuclear energy policy.

“The government will firmly promote our nuclear energy policy and fuel cycle programs,” Kato said. He said Japan will make effort to reduce volume and toxicity of high-level nuclear waste, and extract plutonium from spent fuel from a resource conservation point of view.

But critics say continuation of spent fuel reprocessing only adds to Japan’s already large plutonium stockpile. Japan also lacks a final repository for high-level nuclear waste.

Wednesday’s meeting came after the Nuclear Regulation Authority granted a safety approval this past summer for the Rokkasho fuel reprocessing plant, operated by Japan Nuclear Fuel Ltd., located in northern Japan, for a planned launch in 2022. The authority also gave a preliminary permit for the Rokkasho MOX fuel production plant, also planned for completion in 2022.

Japan now has 45.5 tons of separated plutonium — 8.9 tons at home, and 36.6 tons in Britain and France, where spent fuel from Japanese nuclear plants has been reprocessed and stored because Japan lacks a plant to produce MOX fuel containing plutonium at home. The amount is enough to make about 6,000 atomic bombs.

Despite security concerns raised by Washington and others, the stockpile is hardly decreasing due to difficulties in achieving a full nuclear fuel recycling program and slow restarts of reactors amid setbacks from the 2011 Fukushima disaster.

Japan reprocesses spent fuel, instead of disposing it as waste, to extract plutonium and uranium to make MOX fuel for reuse, while the U.S. discontinued the costly and challenging program. Allowed under international safeguard rules, Japan is the only non-nuclear weapons state that separates plutonium for peaceful purposes, though the same technology can make atomic bombs.

Japan has pledged not to possess excess plutonium and to put a cap on the amount of extraction from spent fuel. The Rokkasho plant operator rules out any proliferation risks, citing tight safeguards and close monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency."

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Follow Mari Yamaguchi on Twitter at https://www.twitter.com/mariyamaguchi

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FURTHER READING

See Submarine Matters' articles on Japan’s nuclear weapons capabilities written in 2008,  2012, 2013,2016and 2018.

By chopping Perle in half! 

See https://www.defensenews.com/smr/euronaval/2020/10/22/naval-group-will-repair-french-perle-nuclear-sub-damaged-by-fire/

 "Jive" (an ex-USN electronic warfare (sonar) specialist submariner through to the 2000s) here https://youtu.be/stoYRQKhKtQ and below 

provides a briefing on India's nuclear submarine Arihant class/"Advanced Technology Vessel" project. From the video:

1:40 -  Project 932 (for a submarine reactors and nuclear subs (SSBN and SSNs) began in the 1970s.

2:10 - in the early 1980s the top Russian military leadership announce and commence Transfer of Technology (ToT) of nuclear subs especially reactors to India. 

3:00 as a technology and training demonstrator, Soviet Charlie-class SSGN, is leased to India for 4 years from 1987 being called INS Chakra I.

4:15 another demonstrator, a Russian Akula class SSN, is leased to India for 10 years from 2012, called INS Chakra II. At end of lease in 2022 it is expected India will buy it outright.

5:20 Jive is wrong in saying the keel of INS Arihant was laid down in "2009". 2009 was the year Arihant was launched - see here "July 26, 2009" and here. Meanwhile INS Arighat's keel was laid down 2011. Both "very short" for SSBNs, so have few meters/little space for missile compartments.

7:00 Bow of Arihant very similar to Kilo class, according to photos Jive presents. Jive then assumes  Arihant has the bow of the design and size/beam of a diesel electric Kilo sub. Jive assumes Arihant therefore has 6 x 530mm torpedo tubes (capable of launching "Kalibr" [or Klub?] land attack SLCMs.

8:12 Jives assumes the Arihant has an USHUS-2 indigenous bow sonar system, based in Russian Rubicon-M

8:42 The sail and non (hull) penetrating masts (eg. photonic) etc. Non penetrating reduces flooding risks.

10:40 Arihant's ballistic missile capacity is minor, but a good start.

11:45 Combat system (Russian derived?) and steering/diving

13:50 Exterior. "INS Arihant at sea."

Jive concludes India developing several SSBNs and SLBM types is a "huge advance" done quickly and in line with non-proliferation treaties [except for proliferating the nuclear weapons? Noting some international reactions to 1998 nuclear tests.].

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Submarine Matters has numerous articles on Arihant, Arighat, submarine reactors, SLBMs and India's whole submarine fleet since 2009.

I think Australia’s ABCNews video title “How China is flexing its military muscle under the rule of Chinese President Xi Jinping” is off the mark.

Also ABC’s comparison of China and US power shows limitations. For example implying a Chinese aircraft carrier can be compared 1-to-1 with an American one? Comparing recent, large scale, operational experience?

The video is here https://youtu.be/sK89YutzjBQ and below. What do you think?