See former UK Royal Navy nuclear submarine Commander, Robert Forsyth's 's excellent essay of July 31, 2019 at ASPI's The Strategist website, at
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/counting-the-costs-of-an-independent-nuclear-deterrent/
Comment
Inspired by the essay an independent (of France, the UK or US) Australian nuclear deterrent (using submarines) would be totally unaffordable with Australia's much lower technical, financial and personnel resources than the 6 SSBN/SSN powers. And also considering the UK dependently used/uses US designs and build methods for its nuclear (submarine) reactors, all the SLBMs (Polaris through to Trident D5) and the SSBNs and SSNs themselves.
Necessities for an independent Australian nuclear deterrent
- developing (maybe A$200 Billion?) and building 4 ultra modern, discrete, SSBNs, with a SSBN 40
year program life cost of another A$300 Billion?
Would be even more unaffordable for Australia as a whole system of support forces and communications are required, including:
So due to development time and the astronomical figures above an independently developed and built Australian nuclear deterrent using nuclear submarines is impossible.
If Australia were ever to have SSBNs, SLBMs and SSNs they would need to be developed and most probably built overseas, with the only choices being France, the US or UK.
Pete
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/counting-the-costs-of-an-independent-nuclear-deterrent/
Comment
Inspired by the essay an independent (of France, the UK or US) Australian nuclear deterrent (using submarines) would be totally unaffordable with Australia's much lower technical, financial and personnel resources than the 6 SSBN/SSN powers. And also considering the UK dependently used/uses US designs and build methods for its nuclear (submarine) reactors, all the SLBMs (Polaris through to Trident D5) and the SSBNs and SSNs themselves.
Necessities for an independent Australian nuclear deterrent
- developing (maybe A$200 Billion?) and building 4 ultra modern, discrete, SSBNs, with a SSBN 40
year program life cost of another A$300 Billion?
Would be even more unaffordable for Australia as a whole system of support forces and communications are required, including:
- developing and building our own nuclear (submarine) reactors (even France has major problems
doing that), SLBMs, associated space-launch system, nuclear warheads, specialised satellites for
navigation, targeting and communications systems. (A$300 Billion?).
doing that), SLBMs, associated space-launch system, nuclear warheads, specialised satellites for
navigation, targeting and communications systems. (A$300 Billion?).
- a more isolated new west coast Australian base (A$20 Billion? minimum) or at least heavily rebuilt
submarine base (at HMAS Stirling, Fleet Base West, Rockingham) would be required.
submarine base (at HMAS Stirling, Fleet Base West, Rockingham) would be required.
- due to the distance to Australia’s east coast, strategic redundancy, and possibility of SSBN or SSN
breakdown a new secondary east coast submarine base may need to be built (being politically
realistic it would probably be in Queensland, A$15 Billion?).
breakdown a new secondary east coast submarine base may need to be built (being politically
realistic it would probably be in Queensland, A$15 Billion?).
This is because the current secondary base in Sydney Harbour would be unsuitable. This is due to lack of space(for nuclear submarines AND nuclear weapons) and especially due to reactor leak safety concerns and the inevitable public/political rejection of nuclear propelled, nuclear armed submarines in the harbour of Australia’s largest city.
To protect each of the 4 SSBN being rotated an SSN, at least one surface ship and maritime patrol aircraft would be required.
- this requires (development and building) a force of at least 6 ultra-modern SSNs.(A$500 Billion?)
There would also be consequent huge and growing strains on the conventional forces of the Australian Navy and also a major drop in financial and personnel resources for the Australian Army and Air Force.
Conclusion
So due to development time and the astronomical figures above an independently developed and built Australian nuclear deterrent using nuclear submarines is impossible.
If Australia were ever to have SSBNs, SLBMs and SSNs they would need to be developed and most probably built overseas, with the only choices being France, the US or UK.
Pete