Nicky on November 9, 2019 made interesting comments on Submarine Matters article South Korea Could Export Submarines to Philippines of November 6, 2019 to which I respond.
No matter the US attitude to human rights in the Philippines (Phils) the US has little influence over what country the Phils buys submarines from. The US has not exported a conventional sub in decades so wouldn’t itself export subs to the Phils. Furthermore the US combat system (eg. sensors and computer components) are generally too electrical power hungry to be included in any submarines that other countries would export to the Phils.
The risk is if there are even small US components on subs of potential sub suppliers to the Philippines (ie. German-TKMS, French-Naval Group, Spanish-Navantia, Swedish-Saab or South Korean-DSME) the US might block such a sale on intellectual property-licencing grounds. The Philippines may then turn to suppliers that have no US components, ie. China and Russia.
The risk is if there are even small US components on subs of potential sub suppliers to the Philippines (ie. German-TKMS, French-Naval Group, Spanish-Navantia, Swedish-Saab or South Korean-DSME) the US might block such a sale on intellectual property-licencing grounds. The Philippines may then turn to suppliers that have no US components, ie. China and Russia.
If the US did try to pressure the Phils on a submarine buy over human rights or other reasons this might just encourage the Phils to "do a Thailand". Thailand was heavily criticized by the US after Thailand's 2014 coup. Thailand commenced the purchase of 3 Chinese submarines in 2015. Alternatively US pressure might speed the Phils into the arms of Putin with a possible sale of Russian built Kilo subs to the Phils.
The Philippines buying submarines from China or Russia would not be an outcome that the US (though tending to downgrade established alliances under Trump) would want.
If a sale of Chinese or Russian submarines did occur this may mean years of Russian or Chinese supervision of Philippine submarines (and perhaps increased undersea sensor laying). This would heighten the geographical reality that Philippine archipelago forms a part barrier to access of US submarines from Squadron 15 (based in Guam) to the South China Sea.
Even though the US no longer has air or naval bases in the Philippines USN SSNs, SSGNs and surface ships still visit the Subic Bay Freeport Zone.
The US also relies on the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the Philippines which permits US Special Forces to fight and advise against Philippine Islamist-Separatist “terrorists” in the southern Philippines - part of the US’s international “War on Terrorism”. Some of these terrorists can be categorized as Islamic State while others come under the longer established acronyms MNLF and MILF.
Pete