Following Submarine Matters’ article "Some See Serious Stresses in US-South Korean Alliance" of September 18, 2019 Anonymous commented (with some improved English editing by Pete) on November 20, 2019:
The South Korean (SK) President Moon Jae-in rejected maintenance of the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) (the deadline is November 23, 2019) in talks with a US delegation (led by US Defense Secretary Mark Esper). The Special Measures Agreement (SMA) negotiation with the US is also not working at all [1, 2]. Withdrawal from the GSOMIA and a breakdown in negotiations on the SMA are likely to happen. According to Japanese academic Takashi Suzuki, the situation on withdrawal of US-SK alliance is deteriorating faster than he expected and will be soon critical [3].
[1]“Moon: Difficult to reconsider GSOMIA termination”, NHK-WORLD, Nov/15/2019
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20191115_45/
SK President Moon Jae-in says it would be difficult to review the country's decision to scrap the GSOMIA intelligence-sharing pact with Japan, as long as Japan keeps its export controls against SK in place.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20191115_45/
SK President Moon Jae-in says it would be difficult to review the country's decision to scrap the GSOMIA intelligence-sharing pact with Japan, as long as Japan keeps its export controls against SK in place.
[2]”U.S. envoy cuts short troop funding negotiations in South Korea”, Jen Kwon, CBS NEWS, Nov/19/2019,https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-south-korea-funding-sma-american-military-presence-kim-jong-uns-deadline-looms-2019-11-19/
Shortly after James DeHart, a US State Department senior advisor, walked out of the talks on November 17, 2019, top SK negotiator, Jeong Eun Bo, said there was "a significant difference between the overall US proposal and the principles that [SK wants] to engage in."
Shortly after James DeHart, a US State Department senior advisor, walked out of the talks on November 17, 2019, top SK negotiator, Jeong Eun Bo, said there was "a significant difference between the overall US proposal and the principles that [SK wants] to engage in."
The Special Measures Agreement (SMA) is the formal document that lays out US-SK cost sharing for the American military deployment in SK.
[3]”Moon Jae-in declared GSOMIA war against JSA. Shift from “Boiling Frog” tactics to early withdrawal of US-South Korea Alliance.” by Japanese academic Takashi Suzuki, DAILY SHINCHO, Nov/18/2019, https://www.dailyshincho.jp/article/2019/11181631/?all=1[translated from Japanese and Korean] Suzukirefers to the Japan-SK tensions over the likely GSOMIA breakdown and the lack of US influence to stop the breakdown.
Suzuki’s reference to the “Boiling Frog” fable in the Japan-SK-US relations context means “If you drop a frog into hot water, it dies immediately. But, if you drop a frog (= people) into warm water, it is happy because warm water is effective for health. Then if you slowly heat the water, it dies peacefully. This means SK’s Moon Jae-in tricks people by honey words and tried to end slowly the alliance. But, now, he changes time-consuming Boiling Frog tactics. Soon or later, Moon Jae-in administration makes US a bad guy and tries early withdrawal of the US-SK alliance.”
Underestimation of the US-SK alliance and cheating of US by SK makes US furious regarding SK’s hard posture in GSOMIA and SMA negotiations. As China and North Korea strongly dislike the GSOMIA pact between Japan and SK, withdrawal of GSOMIA implies shift of SK from the blue team to the red team. Previously, SK’s Moon Jae-in promised US maintenance of GSOMIA, but, Moon Jae-in broke the promise including other lies. The Moon Jae-in administration utilizes hard posture of US in GSOMIA and SMA negotiations to stir up nationalism of SK people and to try an early withdrawal from the US-SK alliance.
Takashi Suzukiwrote the book “U.S.-Korean Alliance Disappearance”, published on
October 17, 2018.
Anonymous