In response to Anonymous's interesting comments of July 1, 2020 that it is an unfavourable time for China to invade Taiwan, I say:
Thanks Anonymous
Taking your points in turn:
i) true that China is unpopular with all those regional countries and with the US (but not with Russia). Being so unpopular China has nothing to lose, in terms of popularity, by invading Taiwan.
ii) The whole world knows already that Coronavirus started in Wuhan, China. Disease has little to do with invasion strategy (including timing).
iii) China's bad economic state is indeed a consideration. However if China launched a successful invasion it would eventually save $Billions by standing down its anti-Taiwan military forces AND gaining the industrial capacity of Taiwan (including seizing what you say is "the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)").
iv) China's aging problem (cost to the Chinese economy) is only going to get worse over the years. Best to invade soon before the aging problem gets much worse.
Unlikely Putin would go to war with China because of comparatively minor China-India border skirmish. China is more important to Russia economically than India is https://www.advantour.com/russia/economy/trade.htm#:~:text=Major%20trading%20partners%20of%20Russia,%2C%20timber%2C%20machinery%20and%20equipment.
Russia has been exporting submarines and high tech aircraft to China for years. Russia has been exporting the S-400 missile system to China since 2018 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_missile_system#China
Re: "Recent clash between Chinese and Indian troops in Himalayan border area might suggest arbitrary behaviour of PLA." The clash and previous border tension was/is an extended political and public event that the Party has studied closely and seems to be on top of. eg. see this of June 22, 2020:
It must be remembered Chinese leader Xi Jinping is Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) which directs the PLA. Below that Generals and Admirals of the CMC head military formations down to divisional level. Below Division many Communist Party members in the officer corps report to the party.
It may be a favourable time for invasion of Taiwan while Trump is making the US internationally unpopular and distrusted. If Trump loses the November 3, 2020 Election the "lame duck period" that ends on January 20, 2021(?) may be a propitious time for actions by China.
BUT the superior strength of the US military in conventional and nuclear terms AND much larger US economy makes invasion risky for China.
The most dangerous condition for Taiwan may be when China has a larger economy than the US permitting China to sustain a war longer than the US.
Pete
Thanks Anonymous
Taking your points in turn:
i) true that China is unpopular with all those regional countries and with the US (but not with Russia). Being so unpopular China has nothing to lose, in terms of popularity, by invading Taiwan.
ii) The whole world knows already that Coronavirus started in Wuhan, China. Disease has little to do with invasion strategy (including timing).
iii) China's bad economic state is indeed a consideration. However if China launched a successful invasion it would eventually save $Billions by standing down its anti-Taiwan military forces AND gaining the industrial capacity of Taiwan (including seizing what you say is "the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)").
iv) China's aging problem (cost to the Chinese economy) is only going to get worse over the years. Best to invade soon before the aging problem gets much worse.
Unlikely Putin would go to war with China because of comparatively minor China-India border skirmish. China is more important to Russia economically than India is https://www.advantour.com/russia/economy/trade.htm#:~:text=Major%20trading%20partners%20of%20Russia,%2C%20timber%2C%20machinery%20and%20equipment.
Russia has been exporting submarines and high tech aircraft to China for years. Russia has been exporting the S-400 missile system to China since 2018 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_missile_system#China
Re: "Recent clash between Chinese and Indian troops in Himalayan border area might suggest arbitrary behaviour of PLA." The clash and previous border tension was/is an extended political and public event that the Party has studied closely and seems to be on top of. eg. see this of June 22, 2020:
Gen. Zhao Zongqi, head of the Western Theater Command and among the few combat veterans still serving in the People's Liberation Army, approved the operation along the contested border region of northern India and southwestern China, a source familiar with the assessment says on the condition of anonymity. Zhao, who has overseen prior standoffs with India, has previously expressed concerns that China must not appear weak to avoid exploitation by the United States and its allies, including in New Delhi, the source says, and saw the faceoff last week as a way to "teach India a lesson."
It must be remembered Chinese leader Xi Jinping is Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) which directs the PLA. Below that Generals and Admirals of the CMC head military formations down to divisional level. Below Division many Communist Party members in the officer corps report to the party.
It may be a favourable time for invasion of Taiwan while Trump is making the US internationally unpopular and distrusted. If Trump loses the November 3, 2020 Election the "lame duck period" that ends on January 20, 2021(?) may be a propitious time for actions by China.
BUT the superior strength of the US military in conventional and nuclear terms AND much larger US economy makes invasion risky for China.
The most dangerous condition for Taiwan may be when China has a larger economy than the US permitting China to sustain a war longer than the US.
Pete