On July 4, 2020 the seat of Eden-Monaro in NSW, Australia, had a By-Electiondue to the resignation of the sitting Labor Member, Mike Kelly. Eden-Monaro (E-M) is a key electoral seat/district in Australia. Up to the 2016 election, E-M was long regarded as Australia's most well-known "bellwether seat". From the 1972 electionuntil the 2013 election, E-M was won by the party that also won the overall Federal Election for the whole of Australia.
SUMMARY
The main takeaways are that the Labor Party won E-M on July 4, 2020, by a decreased (two party preferred (TPP)) majority. But Labor only won on preferences - most significantly from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SFFP). The main reason for that is SFFP voters being dissatisfied with Liberal-National Coalition Government's poor bushfire performance – especially that of Prime Minister Scott Morrison who was on a Hawaiin holiday when E-M was hardest hit by bushfires in December 2019 to February 2020.
The main takeaways are that the Labor Party won E-M on July 4, 2020, by a decreased (two party preferred (TPP)) majority. But Labor only won on preferences - most significantly from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SFFP). The main reason for that is SFFP voters being dissatisfied with Liberal-National Coalition Government's poor bushfire performance – especially that of Prime Minister Scott Morrison who was on a Hawaiin holiday when E-M was hardest hit by bushfires in December 2019 to February 2020.
IN DETAIL
It is also not surprising Labor won because in this situation because to lose would have been a 1 in 100 year event. Put another way if the Liberals won it would have been the first Federal Government win against a Labor held seat candidate, in a by-election, for more than 100 years.
- Labor only won due to preferences. Most significantly/oddly from the SFFP (see "burning to the ground"). The Liberals would have won if they negotiated the usual preference deal with SFFP. A significant number of SFFP voters were likely burned out, or very threatened, by the bushfires (holidaying Morrison's main mistake).
- Labor won with just over 2,000 FEWERFirst Preference votes than the Liberals
- Labor won on a margin of less than 1% (ie. 0.44%or 822 TPP votes - so far - as postal votes are still being counted). Labor won E-M in 2019 by a slightly larger margin, of 0.85% TPP.
- The Liberal Party candidate, Fiona Kotvojs, speaks/presents well. However, she needed more media airtime to display that during the campaign, with airtime/rallies reduced by COVID-19 social distancing requirements.
It all seems a case, in E-M, of Labor drifting more to the centre-right (with virtually no union concerns in E-M other than some light union activity by nurses). Meanwhile the Morrison Coalition Government is drifting to a COVID stimulus centre-left policy direction (which may have picked up some young "JobKeeper" and "JobSeeker" social welfare votes).
So it could be said the Labor Opposition Leader Albanese remains popular, but only just and by a decreased projected majority. It is possible the previous Labor Opposition Leader Bill Shorten may snatch the Labor leadership back in time for the expected 2022 Federal Election or may wait for Albanese to lose the 2022 Election then Shorten will take the helm again as Labor leader.
Pete