Following my article "Eden-Monaro By-Election: Gov Lost on Preferences-Bushfires Link"of July 7, 2020, I made the comment on July 13, 2020, below the article, along the lines:
1/ My July 7, 2020 article argued that the Shooters Fishers and Farmers Party (SFFP) preferences to the Labor Party, in the July 4th, 2020 Eden-Monaro By-Election, decided the Election in favour of Labor. I also argue it was Australian Prime Minister, Scott Morrison's"unannounced overseas holiday with his family to Hawaii during the 2019–20 Australian bushfire season" that angered rural people in the Eden-Monrao Electorate. It was this that may have led to the SFFP directing its preferences to Labor.
"Where was the Deputy Prime Minister in all this?" You have touched on a major problem. The Deputy Prime Minister then-and-now is a "stuffed shirt" numbers man who heads the National Party coalition partner. The Nationalsare an essential partner the ruling Liberalsdespair in knowing they must keep on good terms with to govern.
2/ Leader of the Opposition Labor Party Albanesenow (like Kim Beazley years ago (but Beazley was a great Ambassador to the US)) is an uninspiring Labor leader. "Nice" isn't enough, indeed. Labor'selection strategy is more the hope the overall-popular-Liberals will make major mistakes (and/or fall out with the Nationals) by 2022, than Labor winning on charismatic, better policy, merit.
3/ The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SFFP) are more than disillusioned "National Party voters". Australian politics for decades has been balance-of-power determined by minor parties like the Australian Greensand once the now invisible Australian Democrats.Now the growing SFFP has preference power over the 3 main parties (the Liberals, Nationals and Labor).
The politically unstable National Party now represents big agri-businesses including large Darling River water stealers, billionaire Arab horse stud owners and even massive Chinese owned farms. Under the table political donations, from powerful monied interests, are a fact of life for the 3 main parties.
The SFFP are more than just small-medium farmers and small town voters, but many center-right people dissatisfied with All of the 3 main parties. The SFFP recognise their votes and preferences would be wasted if they delivered them to a main party that already had the highest number of First Preference votes. A well directed preference strategy, as practiced by SFFP, is inching towards holding the balance of power in future years.
4/ "Rural people" love politics, because by backing swing parties like the SFFP, it can give rural people disproportionate political power compared to the majority of people in the cities.
"Where was the Deputy Prime Minister in all this?" You have touched on a major problem. The Deputy Prime Minister then-and-now is a "stuffed shirt" numbers man who heads the National Party coalition partner. The Nationalsare an essential partner the ruling Liberalsdespair in knowing they must keep on good terms with to govern.
2/ Leader of the Opposition Labor Party Albanesenow (like Kim Beazley years ago (but Beazley was a great Ambassador to the US)) is an uninspiring Labor leader. "Nice" isn't enough, indeed. Labor'selection strategy is more the hope the overall-popular-Liberals will make major mistakes (and/or fall out with the Nationals) by 2022, than Labor winning on charismatic, better policy, merit.
3/ The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SFFP) are more than disillusioned "National Party voters". Australian politics for decades has been balance-of-power determined by minor parties like the Australian Greensand once the now invisible Australian Democrats.Now the growing SFFP has preference power over the 3 main parties (the Liberals, Nationals and Labor).
The politically unstable National Party now represents big agri-businesses including large Darling River water stealers, billionaire Arab horse stud owners and even massive Chinese owned farms. Under the table political donations, from powerful monied interests, are a fact of life for the 3 main parties.
The SFFP are more than just small-medium farmers and small town voters, but many center-right people dissatisfied with All of the 3 main parties. The SFFP recognise their votes and preferences would be wasted if they delivered them to a main party that already had the highest number of First Preference votes. A well directed preference strategy, as practiced by SFFP, is inching towards holding the balance of power in future years.
4/ "Rural people" love politics, because by backing swing parties like the SFFP, it can give rural people disproportionate political power compared to the majority of people in the cities.