On Australia’s On Line Opinion, under the pseudonym “plantagenet”, on 29 October 2020 at https://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?discussion=9299&page=0
I started a discussion under with the predictive title “Trump Tipped To Win Election”.
So far it has proven more accurate than most pollsters who predicted a landslide for Biden with Biden 9% or more ahead. The discussion has attracted 102 comments so far. So what do you think of my
29 October 2020 prediction below?:
" Trump Tipped To Win Election
Short Proposition
It is better to be pessimistic, that way you won’t be disappointed. While the collective polls at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/ currently tip Biden to win on a 9% basis, collective poll predictions proved wrong in 2016.
Within the collective polls Rusmussen Reports, a very accurate pollster in 2016 http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/how_we_did
sharply disagreed with the collective on 28 October 2020, tipping Trump to win by 1%.
Long Proposition
See Rusmussen's 2020 prediction here http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct28
“Trump 48%, Biden 47%, Wednesday, October 28, 2020
President Trump has seesawed back into a one-point lead over Democrat Joe Biden in Rasmussen Reports’ daily White House Watch survey.
The latest national telephone and online survey finds Trump edging Biden 48% to 47% among Likely U.S. Voters. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) remain undecided... The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points...”
The US voting system is very complicated, due to:
The President is elected according to the Electoral College System http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College not directly on the popular vote. In 2016 Trump won more Electoral College votes (304 to Hillary’s 227) while Hillary won more popular votes (65,853,514 compared to Trump’s 62,984,828).
Tied to Electoral College system, Swing/Battleground/Toss-up State results often determine who wins. See this Electoral Map http://www.270towin.com/maps/biden-trump-polling-map where Trump or Biden needs 270 Electoral College Votes to win. Swing States (Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin and Iowa) are identified and predicted here http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/28/us-election-polls-tracker-swing-states-donald-trump-joe-biden .
In very close State counts disputes have been filed with State or Federal courts, perhaps ultimately for the US Supreme Court to decide. http://theconversation.com/the-case-of-biden-versus-trump-or-how-a-judge-could-decide-the-presidential-election-146367 .
This 2020 election is very unusual in that the President says he won’t accept a Biden win under the electoral system http://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/24/politics/trump-election-warnings-leaving-office/index.html .
Here's hoping Biden wins.
Posted by plantagenet, Thursday, 29 October 2020 5:13:02 PM "