Minnie Chan for the now China ruled Hong Kong South China Morning Post (SCMP) August 8, 2021, has written a most complicated and excellent article:
"New submarine hints at China’s search for stealth ahead of potential Taiwan war: analysts"
French and American submarine watchers note features of a new Type 039A Chinese sub would make it quieter and more agile
‘To some extent, the revision and design told us that Taiwan is the top target of the Type 039 subs,’ says Macau-based expert
There is much speculation about the Type 039D Chinese Submarine that appeared on social media on May 12 and what the latest modifications might mean for its battle capacity.
China’s move to create quieter submarines by reconfiguring its Type 039A diesel-powered submarines would aid the Chinese navy in a possible war for Taiwan reunification and territory conflicts in the East and South China seas, according to military analysts.
The Type 039A is China’s first conventional submarine equipped with air-independent propulsion (AIP). It was designed mainly as an anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM) platform capable of hiding submerged for longer in difficult-to-access shallow coastal areas.
The new variation, which the authors called Type 039D, features a distinctively stealthy sail – an angled upper section with a ridge running along it – and was first pictured and posted on Chinese social media platforms on May 12, days before its launch in a shipyard in Wuhan, Hubei province, according to the analysis article published on the authors’ personal websites.
“The shape of the sail seems to have been studied to allow better reflection of radar waves on the surface,” Genevelle wrote, adding that the coating of the anechoic – or free from echo – tiles on the sail looked different and outlines were much less visible.
Dome covers, rudder, navigation lights, observation windows on the sail and even an exhaust grid and other parts on the hull were all modified, according to the authors.
With a higher exhaust diffuser on the sail, the Type 039D was the first AIP-powered submarine developed in China and was believed to be one of the quietest diesel-electric submarines in service, the article said.
The angled sail was similar to the design of the future Swedish A26 Blekinge-class submarine, which is expected to be launched as early as 2024, raising speculation about whether the PLA Navy was again catching up to leading submarine technologies, wrote defence analyst H I Sutton, in an article published on the military website Naval News in June.
Genevelle, who in December published an encyclopaedia detailing submarines built around the world since World War II, found the sub with the unusual sail was just one of the more than 30 variants of conventional Chinese subs based on the Type 039A over three decades, with shapes of the sail, locations of limber holes for water flow, rudders, and other designs being modified, according to his study with Stirn.
All those changes were based on designs aimed at making the diesel-powered submarines quiet, the report added.
Western sub observers such as Genevelle criticised China for not revealing all its successes to the outside world, including whether the AIP subs were supported by lithium-ion battery technology.
Zhou Chenming, a researcher from the Yuan Wang military science and technology institute in Beijing, said the Type 039A had been equipped with the lithium-ion battery to support the AIP system since the new marine propulsion technology was applied to the vessel.
Macau-based military expert Antony Wong Tong said the revised Type 039A was aimed at the Taiwan contingency, which the PLA had been preparing for decades.
“From the designs and revision of rudder, sail and vents, limber holes, we can see the development of the subs has focused on snorkel operation [for shallow littorals operation], which is so different from the US and Russian deep-diving types,” Wong said.
“To some extent, the revision and design told us that Taiwan is the top target of the Type 039 subs.”
Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie agreed with Wong, adding that the revision could be seen as the PLA’s answer to the US Navy’s modernisation plan for its four operational nuclear-powered submarines – the Ohio, Los Angeles, Seawolf and Virginia – in the next two decades at an estimated cost of US$15 billion.
“Once there is a Taiwan contingency, the US will definitely deploy nuclear-powered subs to the Asia-Pacific region due to the long journey, but the PLA just needs to send the Type 039 subs to cope with them because it’s happening just on the doorstep,” Li said.
A military source told the South China Morning Post that Beijing aimed to build the world’s largest conventional-powered fleet led by the Type 039, but declined to say how many 039s there would be.
“China has kept going to revise and upgrade the Type 039, with some little revision for every two hulls, meaning there are so many variants,” said the source, who requested anonymity because of the sensitive subject.
“Submarine design and operations should be a country’s top secret. All the new models of the Type 039A described by the Western experts – like the Type 039B, 039C or even 039G and 039AG – are not correct, because you can see China never announced that, just saying they are the variants of the Type 039.”
Zhou said the variants of the Type 039A would focus on offshore surveillance and necessary “surprise attacks” against intrusive foreign ships in shallow waters about 100-200km (62-124 miles) along the East and South China seas.
In 2006, a PLA Navy older model Type 039 diesel-electric submarine surfaced within 5 nautical miles (9km) of the USS Kitty Hawk when the aircraft carrier was on a training exercise in the East China Sea between Japan and Taiwan.
In October 2015, officers on the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan were shocked to discover a PLA attack submarine had sailed “very close” to it near Japanese waters."
ENDS
----------------------------
P.S. As I write this HMS Queen Elizabeth is reportyed by MarineTraffic as porting at Guam naval base - see https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:5618808/mmsi:235107775/imo:4907892/vessel:HMS_QUEEN_ELIZABETH