In a free flowing, yet strangely sober sermon “Bureaucratus Lex” has provided perhaps prescient pathways on perturbingly problematic AUKUS SSN perambulations.
Bureaucratus, on October 26, 2021, commented (with some tiny editing) below:
Yet more AUKUS SSN Observations
If deftly executed, the nascent Australian SSN program could meet the key force capability goals set by the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) as provisionally approved by Australia's cabinet and endorsed by the loyal opposition Australian Labor Party.
Yet I would bet an all-expenses paid long weekend at a Hyatt resort that this initiative will go pear shaped.
There is little chance of Australian Labor Party (or UK Labour Party (thy are spelt differently!)) parliamentarians taking the risk/wearing the blame for a highly foreseeable SSN fiasco.
Therefore, in my humble opinion, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison have less than three years, to conjure up:
(a) a signed bilateral contract, blessed by all three AUKUS partners, for the UK and Australian future submarine construction programs to be seamlessly joined, with Australia and the UK jointly building (and separately operating) at least eight SSNs of the same design each - including a mix of Astute SSN and their successor class, aka SSN(R) [due to be delivered first to the UK Royal Navy (RN) in the 2040s or 2050s.]
(b) live video of an impressive looking new nuclear boat, underway in UK waters, flying the Australian ensign
(c) a UK Treasury disclosure document showing rivers of gold flowing to the UK under a line item titled “Leasing Fees for HMS Agamemnon and HMS Agincourt from the RN to the RAN”
(d) footage shot at Osborne shipyard, South Australia or Henderson shipyard, Western Australia of Australian workers cutting metal for the fin/sail or forward pressure hull of an Astute boat No. 8, and
(e) other proof of an actual (not projected) hiring surge at both Osborne and the UK’s Barrow-in-Furness shipyard, etc.
From the UK perspective - without landing a whale of an AUKUS SSN contract, UK (own use) submarine production volumes are unlikely to support even the minimum required design and production infrastructure needed to produce SSBNs.
It follows that the UK continuous at sea nuclear deterrent will eventually have to be abandoned, as nobody except France (oh what delicious irony) would be prepared to sell the UK an SSBN if the UK loses its current ability to build them itself at Barrow Infernal.
RN leadership might talk Boris down from agreeing to gap Astute boats six and seven and wet lease them (with crews and full logistic support) to the RAN until Rolls Royce and BAE can crank up the tepid production lines for UK Pressurized Water Reactor No. 2 (PWR2) and Astute to get the eighth and subsequent Astute boats into commission.
If Boris declines to agree to an urgent loan to the RAN of Astute boats six and seven, then Australia might be just as likely to abolish its submarine service (as Denmark did) to punish the RAN (and avoid a Collins SSK sinking after 32 years in service), than to press on to create a viable SSN force prior to the 2040s.
Somebody pass me the popcorn, this saga is 'must-sea' viewing.
Bureaucratus Lex, October 26, 2021.