Following several well argued Anonymous comments, from January 17 to 19, I'll renew my Devil’s Advocate position.
I’ll start by reaffirming that the pencilled-in AUKUS submarine intention is a good idea. Australia should maintain its lead with a “regionally superior submarine” - something only achievable with nuclear reactors in our future subs.
Labor
Yes the Labor Party Opposition has followed the bipartisan tradition of supporting the Liberal-National Government In Power on major defence issues. In this case the AUKUS submarine announcement.
Note that as Labor and the Government go into the Federal Election by May 2022. Labor’s Two Party Preferred (TPP) lead of 6% (53% to 47%) is high. It is higher than the Liberal National's lead at the 2019 Election which was only 51.53% to 48.47%. See the right sidebar.
However when/if Labor is the Government In Power after the by-May 2022 Election it will be Labor that will set major defence policies. It would then need to justify the AUKUS submarine to the voting/taxpaying public. This is also noting that when Labor was last in power it didn’t authorise any new shipbuilding projects. Even if there is support for the future AUKUS subs they have not formally authorised.
That lack of new authorisation during Labor's last period in office may have been due to Labor factional battles on defence. Such battles could resurface if Labor wins in May 2022.
From May 2022 Labor's Left Wing, which includes Labor's main foreign policy spokesperson, Penny Wong may push for reduced growth in defence expenses and resume the anti-nuclear stance.
Nuclear Submarine Task Force Report
Another major political hurdle will be 10 months later, around March 2023, when Australia's Nuclear Power Submarine Task Force is due to report its findings. The findings on cost and schedule may be vague with much more nuclear submarine budgetary detail to address - in 2024 or later.
In a situation where Australia's Government is already running a large Covid caused national deficit it may be difficult to explain that future nuclear subs will be a major expense over and above what the Attack class would have cost.
A Long Bow - But Trump May Return
Another hurdle or reversal may be the return of Trump (2.0) if he wins the November 2024 Presidential Elections.
One of the fathers of AUKUS was Biden. Due to age Biden is highly unlikely to contest the November 2024 Elections. He'll almost certainly leave office, at 82, in January 2025 when the next President is Inaugurated. Though its early days yet no other Democrat seems a popular successor.
Trump continues to dominate the Republican Party. Trump has a history of attempting to renegotiate alliance arrangements – like the $Billions for keeping US forces in South Korea. Trump may demand an unacceptable rise in the price of US technology going into AUKUS sub. Trump might withdraw US support for AUKUS if his monetary and other demands are not met.
Again, I support the AUKUS sub idea, but raising issues over whether it will survive is a valid activity.