There has been much speculation on Israel's future Dolphin 3, Dakar-class submarines.
On January 20, 2022 /Kjell brought up some useful purchasing details of Israel’s future Dakar-class submarines, which I christened the "Dolphin 3s" in 2016. The first of the Dolphin 3s, INS Dakar, is expected to be commissioned in 2031.
Vertical Launch Systems (VLS) For Dolphin Submarines?
As the Dolphin 1s and Dolphin 2s reportedly carry nuclear weapon tipped missiles (maybe cruise missiles (SLCMs) or maybe ballistic (SLBMs) the missile details and their launch modes are secret. After Israel receives each Dolphins from TKMS Israel apparently carries out extensive modifications to make them nuclear missile capable.
At a minimum Israel would have a specialised Combat System (including special sensors, databases, software and hardware) to enable firing and tracking the missiles. Wiki implies the Dolphin 1s and 2s use their 4 x 650mm torpedo tubes to fire the nuclear missiles and for other purposes.
Alternatively Israel’s extensive Dolphin 1 and 2 post-delivery modifications may go as far as installing VLS to enable rapid ripple fire of the nuclear missiles. H I Sutton on January 19, 2022 discussed whether the last in class Dolphin 2, named INS Dragon (Drakon in Hebrew) may owe its greater length possibly to 6 VLS tubes.
Whether INS Dragon has VLS or not, now that South Korea has launched a part TKMS derived KSS-III, with VLS, it is thought increasingly likely that Israel’s future TKMS built Dolphin 3s may carry VLS.
Anonymous, on February 2, 2022, also provided useful comments on the sale of the Dolphin 3s.
“Israel has ordered three Dolphin 3, Dakar-class submarines from TKMS [1-3]. The price of the submarines is 3 billion euros. This is with a 20% of German government [post Holocaust humanitarian] subsidy [4]. According to the picture by H I Sutton [3], currently, specific diamond shape of 212CD to reduce noise may probably not be adopted for Dakar-class.
[1]https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/01/israel-orders-3-new-dakar-class-submarines-from-tkms/
“Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) has reached an agreement with the Israeli Ministry of Defence on the framework conditions for the purchase of three Dakar-class submarines. After extensive negotiations, all parties involved agreed to the technical content and contractual provisions on Thursday.”
Pete Comment: Artwork 2's sail/fin is so long it almost begs the questions"Might Israel's Dolphin 3 SLBM VLS's be housed in the sail/fin, like a North Korean Sinpo-C submarine? Or is it just a radical design concept to fool the viewer?"
Germany's Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKAG.DE) will build three advanced submarines for the Israeli Navy in a deal worth 3 billion euros (US$3.4 billion), the Israeli Defense Ministry said on [January 20, 2022]
“The Israeli Navy maintains a high level of secrecy surrounding its submarine capabilities. And the latest boat, the INS Dragon, is more secretive than most. This may be driven by new weapon capabilities, possibly including a vertical launch system (VLS).”
”the Germans had raised the price of the vessels to 3 billion euros, and that the German government had not increased its subsidy. Israel, which originally was to pay 1.2 billion euros, was now required to pay 2.4 billion euros.”
Pete Comment
Almost a “law of submarine purchasing” is that over decades a customer buys steadily larger, heavier, therefore more capable, submarines. Israel has followed this trend in its 50 years of purchasing TKMS designs (as far back as the 500 tonne Gal-class). The Dolphins 2s could be described as TKMS Type 214 variants, heavier than the Dolphin 1s (Type 209 variants).
In turn the Dolphin 3s may turn out to be influenced by Type 212CDinsides. This might include larger batteries, more diesel fuel, more AIP chemicals (for greater range) and to take the weight of VLS and SLBMs. All this may be in a Dolphin 3 that is as large as the 2,500 tonne (surfaced) Type 212CD.
The shape of INS Dakar, the first Dolphin 3, may only become public in 2030. It may look more like Artwork 2 (TKMS’s “Official rendering”) than a "diamond shape" Type 212CD.