For what a prediction of events further than 15 years in the future is worth:
Anthony Galloway for the Sydney Morning Herald, February 7, 2022,reports :
Australian Defence Minister Peter Dutton“…revealed he was extremely confident that Australia would have its first nuclear-powered submarine before 2038, saying recent discussions with American and British officials under the AUKUS agreement had reassured him that the submarines would be built years earlier than many defence experts expected.”
“…The Defence Minister’s comments come before the arrival in Australia of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who will take part in a meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue’s foreign ministers in Melbourne this week, before travelling to Fiji and Hawaii.”
Pete Comment
1. Note that 2038 is in 14 year Gap between likely production of UK submarines. That is the last Astute-class submarine is "expected" to end production in 2026 and many tentatively predict the next UK SSN class, "SSN(R)", will be delivered in the 2040s.
But if the UK, by the mid 2030s, has developed a reactor small enough to fit in an SSN(R) (maybe a small PWR3 or future "PWR4".
andAustralian money is enough of a "develop SSN(R) faster" incentive,
then, "before 2038" may be doable.
2. If Minister Dutton has a US designed SSN in mind, then the above UK SSN assumptions may be off the track. More details, suggesting a whole US designed SSN, are needed.