In response to Andrew’s comment of February 28, 2022.
Yes, if Russia succeeds in invading all of Ukraine then, after a year or more, the West's main option will be to lift sanctions and resume trading with Russia. Otherwise a Russian dominated Ukraine would inadvertently suffer from those Western sanctions.
Also Russia's gas pipelines to Europe, especially to Germany, are too valuable to remain inactive.
Furthermore there's the major consideration of China boosting its trade with Russia (Russian oil, gas, minerals and agricultural products) to counter Western sanctions. The China trade would support much of Russia's foreign exchange and broader financial needs. If such Chinese trade makes Western sanctions ineffective then the West can only lift the sanctions.
Putin's major fear may be a slow war of attrition in Ukraine. This would be unpopular with the Russian public, thus eroding Putin's Leader for Life legitimacy. After 4 days Russia appears to have failed (so far) in its Blitzkrieg strategy to invade most of northern Ukraine, including a capture of Kyiv. See the map below.
Xi would be watching the effects of Russia's aggression closely. If Putin-Russia suffers then China might need to revise its own aggressive strategic posture. Xi might see a military takeover of Taiwan as too ambitious and unpredictable.
Xi might then see political and economic domination of Taiwan (and of weak countries in Southeast and Central Asia and island nations) as acceptable legacies of his rule.
Then, again, Putin's brinkmanship gambit of "West stop supporting Ukraine or risknuclear war with Russia" might prove an attractive strategy for Xi concerning Taiwan.
With each televised address Putin looks increasingly tired - those eyes. He is probably surviving on NoDoz Caffeine pills, or something stronger, with the effect of losing touch, paranoia, and inability to recognise sensible advice.
