An Australia's ABC News article has reported, September 8, 2014, that Japan (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kawasasiki Heavy Industries) remains the front-runner to build Australia's future new conventional submarines.
My estimate is the number of submarines specified for building will probably be 6 to 8 (6 first, then an option of 2 more - the number earlier set down for the Collins project) and less likely the 12 (set down in Australia's 2009 Defence White Paper section 8.39, page 64 (PDF 1.8 MB). ABC also reported on the TV News on September 8, 2014 that after Japan it is Germany (TKMS-HDW) and France (DCNS) that are secondary possibilities.
The expection of journalists that Japan will be chosen is partially due to a visit of 16 Japanese submarine technicians to the Australian Submarine Corporation's (ASC) sub and shipbuilding facility at Osborne (Adelaide, South Australia) on August 26, 2014. The reason for the visit was not explained, but may be the beginning of a study regarding ASC's ability to maintain the future submarines and/or ASC's ability to provide components, even some sections, of a future submarine
If the Japanese Government finalises the submarine deal this will be the the first major arms export by Japan. The export would be a major departure from the intent of Japan's peace constitution and a change in Japan's post-WWII ban on defence exports. Depending on the timings of a submarine export program Japan would likely design and build (in Japan) an export version of the Soryu or perhaps a submarine sufficiently evolved to be categorised as a new class.
Japan's Soryu is attractive as it of the size, a bit over 4,000 tonnes, that Australia wants. The Soryu also has a highly developed propulsion system for such a large submarine (propulsion is a major weakness of the Collins). German or French submarines would be the second and third choices - if the Japanese deal cannot be concluded or if it fell through for political reasons. The main weakness of Germany and France are that they have never built conventional submarines of 4,000 tonnes.
The level of Australian (particularly South Australian state) participation in a submarine building program remains a significant industrial-economic issue that is causing tension between the South Australian state government and Australia's Federal (Abbott) government. Abbott denies (in an unconvincing way) that industry policy is a major issue for the submarine project. Some industrial offset agreement with Japan is likely - perhaps concerning components for the submarines or perhaps components for Mitsubishi cars. South Australian industy has been hit hard due to the closure of car factories (including Mitsubishi) in that State .
The Australian Government is expected to announce before the end of 2014 that Japan will build the submarines. Oddly the Government has not to date referred to any formal selection process e.g. a tender. So any announcement will be in a manner unknown.
Perhaps the Government before the end of 2014 will say it is enquiring into choosing Japan with Australia's decision being explained in the next Defence White Paper due in 2015.
I raised many of the above issues in an article Future submarines: Australia's $40 billion risk of July 21, 2014 published on On Line Opinion.
The ABC article at http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-08/xenophon-urges-pm-to-end-uncertainty-over-submarine-project/5727028 is below:
My estimate is the number of submarines specified for building will probably be 6 to 8 (6 first, then an option of 2 more - the number earlier set down for the Collins project) and less likely the 12 (set down in Australia's 2009 Defence White Paper section 8.39, page 64 (PDF 1.8 MB). ABC also reported on the TV News on September 8, 2014 that after Japan it is Germany (TKMS-HDW) and France (DCNS) that are secondary possibilities.
The expection of journalists that Japan will be chosen is partially due to a visit of 16 Japanese submarine technicians to the Australian Submarine Corporation's (ASC) sub and shipbuilding facility at Osborne (Adelaide, South Australia) on August 26, 2014. The reason for the visit was not explained, but may be the beginning of a study regarding ASC's ability to maintain the future submarines and/or ASC's ability to provide components, even some sections, of a future submarine
If the Japanese Government finalises the submarine deal this will be the the first major arms export by Japan. The export would be a major departure from the intent of Japan's peace constitution and a change in Japan's post-WWII ban on defence exports. Depending on the timings of a submarine export program Japan would likely design and build (in Japan) an export version of the Soryu or perhaps a submarine sufficiently evolved to be categorised as a new class.
Japan's Soryu is attractive as it of the size, a bit over 4,000 tonnes, that Australia wants. The Soryu also has a highly developed propulsion system for such a large submarine (propulsion is a major weakness of the Collins). German or French submarines would be the second and third choices - if the Japanese deal cannot be concluded or if it fell through for political reasons. The main weakness of Germany and France are that they have never built conventional submarines of 4,000 tonnes.
The level of Australian (particularly South Australian state) participation in a submarine building program remains a significant industrial-economic issue that is causing tension between the South Australian state government and Australia's Federal (Abbott) government. Abbott denies (in an unconvincing way) that industry policy is a major issue for the submarine project. Some industrial offset agreement with Japan is likely - perhaps concerning components for the submarines or perhaps components for Mitsubishi cars. South Australian industy has been hit hard due to the closure of car factories (including Mitsubishi) in that State .
The Australian Government is expected to announce before the end of 2014 that Japan will build the submarines. Oddly the Government has not to date referred to any formal selection process e.g. a tender. So any announcement will be in a manner unknown.
Perhaps the Government before the end of 2014 will say it is enquiring into choosing Japan with Australia's decision being explained in the next Defence White Paper due in 2015.
I raised many of the above issues in an article Future submarines: Australia's $40 billion risk of July 21, 2014 published on On Line Opinion.
The ABC article at http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-08/xenophon-urges-pm-to-end-uncertainty-over-submarine-project/5727028 is below:
"Submarine policy: Nick Xenophon urges PM to 'end the uncertainty' over SA project
September 8, 2014
Thousands of jobs would be lost if the Federal Government announced Australian submarines would be made in Japan, independent senator Nick Xenophon has said. [Xenophon is a Federal Senator who represents the State of South Australia]
Ongoing uncertainty over the Federal Government's policy for its ageing fleet of Collins Class submarines has flared again.
It follows a visit of Japanese submarine experts to Adelaide last month.
The Coalition [Federal Government] is due to reveal its policy for replacing the submarines next year, with speculation Defence Minister David Johnston will reveal a significant downgrade in plans to build the 12 submarines in Adelaide.
Senator Xenophon has called on the Prime Minister to "come clean".
"There must be an end to the uncertainty," he said.
"The fact that it's not being denied is a real concern.
"We can't plan as a state unless we know what the Federal Government is doing or not doing with the subs, whether there are alternative projects in the pipeline."But the important thing is to avoid the so-called valley of death, which is literally thousands of jobs which are at stake... until we know that there is an alternative out there, if that's what the Government is planning to do."
PM reaffirms work to take place in SA
The Prime Minister said the Government's decision about the new fleet of submarines would be based on defence requirements, not industry policy.
Tony Abbott said work would take place in Adelaide, but stopped short of guaranteeing the submarines would be built there.
"The most important thing is to get the best and most capable submarines at a reasonable price to the taxpayer," Mr Abbott said.
"As I stressed all along, we should make a decision here based on defence requirements, not on the basis of industry policy based on regional policy.
"The Australian work on the new submarines will be centred on the South Australian ship yards in Adelaide.
"The precise nature of how we are going to do our next generation of submarines is still subject to a whole range of further decisions."
A spokesman for Defence Minister David Johnston said a decision had not yet been made.
"The future submarine program is being considered as part of the white paper process and we will not comment on the timing of the decision," he said.
Premier Jay Weatherill confirmed he had spoken with Mr Johnston during his recent trip to Canberra and that the Minister had given assurances that no decision had been made.
"It was a very positive meeting," Mr Weatherill said.
"I can only take the Defence Minister at his word when he reassures us that no decisions have been taken in this regard."
A body blow to South Australia: Stephen Conroy
The Federal Opposition's Stephen Conroy said he had received a number of credible reports the Prime Minister would be backing away from his election promise to build submarines in Adelaide.
"I have spoken to a number of people who have been involved in the process and they say they believe the Government will be making an announcement before the end of the year that Japan is getting Australia's submarine build," he said.
"What it will see is a body blow to the people of South Australia. Thousands more jobs are at risk, not just in Adelaide but across Australia.
"This follows on from the Government's callous decision to push Holden and Toyota out of Australia."
Bill Shorten will be in Adelaide on Tuesday with a number of Labor colleagues to visit the shipbuilding company ASC's base in Osborne.
Mr Conroy said Labor would continue to campaign in South Australia.
"This will be devastating. Thousands and thousands of jobs are at stake. We're going to fight this decision every inch of the way," he said.
"It's not good enough simply to say we're breaking our promise, tough to Adelaide."
The State Government said it would also continue to lobby the Federal Government.
Acting State Minister for Defence Susan Close said she was hoping to persuade the Government to keep the work local.
"The Federal Government taunted Holden [car company] until they left and we're contemplating the loss of an important part of our defence industry," Ms Close said.
"What we need is a government that is prepared to invest in Australian and South Australian jobs, invest in the technology we have here and not contemplate spending money overseas."
See Kym Bergmann's commentary, Making sense of the Japanese submarine option of September 9, 2014, on the many downsides of choosing a Japanese submarine in such haste.
See Kym Bergmann's commentary, Making sense of the Japanese submarine option of September 9, 2014, on the many downsides of choosing a Japanese submarine in such haste.
Pete