On April 17, 2022, Gessler kindly drew my attention to a CNBC article of March 31, 2022.
That article reported:
“Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s announcement on [March 31, 2022] that he would not abandon a massive Russian [Sakhalin-2 liquefied natural gas (LNG)] project was decided weeks ago when he told top officials in private he wouldn’t risk Japan’s energy security, three sources said. [Pete comment: Japanese, other western and Russian entities have been discussing the Sakhalin-II aka Sakhalin-2 LNG concept as early as 1991/92.]
Even as [Japan] targets Russian banks and oligarchs with sanctions, Japan has less leeway than some of its allies to cut ties to Russian gas, on which it has become more reliant since shutting down nuclear reactors after the 2011 Fukushima disaster.
For more than a decade, energy-poor Japan has tapped Russian gas to cut its Middle East oil reliance and to make up for lost nuclear capacity.”
Though Russia's share of Japanese energy imports is only about 8-10% (still much greater than India's), the Sakhalin LNG projects are crucial for Japan's decarbonization agenda.
Pete Comment
Such a large project will continue long after Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been fought to standstill. If, as seems possible, Russia may end the invasion after seizing additional eastern and southern Ukrainian territory, it will be of little help to Ukraine if Japan permanently refuses to do business with Russia.