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Australia's post-Election Nuclear Proliferation Concerns

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Photo of  India's "S-1" land based nuclear submarine reactor at Kalpakkam an Indian nuclear enclave 45 km south of Chennai. (Photo courtesy The Hindu). Australia will probably need a similar sized land based reactor. This time for nuclear submarine reactor simulation training. The reactor will probably be built at Australia's Lucas Heights, Sydney reactor complex. The current civilian reactor at Lucas Heights cannot perform the rapid ramp-up and slow-down actions used in the nuclear attack submarine reactors that Australia will be buying under AUKUS. 

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Australia's Federal Election is on May 21, 2022. But our future A$200 Billion nuclear submarine purchase has been sadly played down as an election issue.

Thanks Anonymous for your May 10, 2022 comments in identifying key points in the ASPI Strategistarticle"Australia considering next-generation US and UK designs for nuclear submarines". 

In the article the Chief of the RAN's Nuclear Powered Submarine Taskforce, Vice Admiral Mead, is heroic in his nuclear proliferation safety claims - no mention of our neighbours being worried. Australia buying weapons grade HEU in reactors used to power Australia's future nuclear attack submarines (SSNs), may open up a proliferation can of worms.  

Playing Devil's Advocate here, I would argue: 

1. "Would there be proliferation worries if key nations in Australia's region used HEU in their own submarine reactors?" 

2.  Lets start with Indonesia which has a history of buying weapon systems (including fourteen Whiskey-class submarines) from Russia. 

3.  Looking at IMF rankings of nominal GDP by country Indonesia ranks 17th, which is not too far behind Australia's rank of 13th. Indonesia may well surpass Australia's GDP in 10 years. That may mean a larger Indonesia defence budget to buy SSNs than Australia's budget.

4.  The economic sanctions against Russia, over Ukraine, may make Russia desperate to sell high priced weapons to countries willing to buy, maybe Indonesia. This is similar to two Russian SSNs "leased" at high prices to India. See Chakra III,  and the future "Chakra III" (K-391). 

Russia also sold nuclear missile ballistic submarine (SSBN) technology to India and might sell to Indonesia, if the price is right. Indonesia would have noticed that the US and UK are  helping Australia develop hypersonic missiles - missiles that may be ideal for nuclear warheads. 

5.  Indonesia has shown itself to by hypersensitive about Australia having a stronger submarine arm. From 2009, when Australia Defence White Paper was projecting 12 new conventional submarines (SSKs), key parts of the Indonesia military-industrial complex also started talking 12 new SSKs for Indonesia. Australia's plans for nuclear propelled submarines make Indonesia even more nervous. 

6.  Countries that wish to operate SSNs always (to my knowledge) have onshore training reactors (see photo and caption above). Australian political statements are limited to reactors that are never opened on submarines. Politicians and some in uniform have neglected to add that we will need an on land training reactor. I assume Australia will build its submarine training reactor at Sydney's Lucas Heights reactor complex (or perhaps at Fleet Base West near Perth) in the 2030s. 

Australia needs SSNs to face China. But Indonesia may then decide to buy SSNs to face China and Indonesia's future SSN armed neighbour, Australia.


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