Part inspired by Anonymous’ May 27, 2022 comment:
Economics
Australian Defence Spending is going to face close examination when the new Labor government runs its upcoming Force Posture Review.
Projects that Labor has made no promises about, are not Labors’ idea, involve minimal local employment, or cannot be linked easily to strategy will be vulnerable to cutting. On all those grounds projects like a range of light and heavy armour projects may be at risk.
An expanded submarine force for Australia under Program SEA 1000 was an idea of former Labor Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, so should be safer and the AUKUS alliance is valued by Labor.
But cuts in scope and cost of Defence Projects have to be a real risk. This is with the Australian Government’s deficit nearing A$1 Trillion. This is no time for Defence to trot out its wish list of high priced sub options when the Australian public value cost of living, health and welfare more highly.
It is still important to keep SSN program costs in perspective compared to the Australian Government's A$667.3 billion in the 2020-21 Annual budget. See Page 159 of the 2021-22 Budget. Defence accounted for A$34.5 Billion 2020-21 in "Estimates" on Page 161.
Politics
Despite all the rhetoric about savings, Labor and Coalition governments always find money for projects they care about, even if very costly (like the Coalition purchasing F-35As). The Coalition fund projects their big donors like. Labor funds projects that big unions and major employers of unionists like. In this case, if the AUKUS subs are built at Osborne, Adelaide’s ASC Ltd. Large unions (like the CFMEU) benefit.
Also important is Labor's wish to fill the component order books of broader Australian equipment suppliers. This is for the AUKUS SSNs and preceding that, the Hunter-class Future Frigates, all to be built in Osborne, Adelaide, South Australia.
Labor’s high ranking Deputy Leader and Defence Minister Richard Marleswill spread the benefits of sub and ship building right across the Australian economy. Marles is from the Right faction of the Labor Party and thus could have easily felt at home in the Coalition. He represents continuity in supporting AUKUS.
Balancing Marles, to a degree, is Minister for Defence Industry, Pat Conroy at “Outer” (non Cabinet) Minister level. Conroy, from the Labor Left, may have been selected (in part) to liaise with the Unions and reassure anti-nuclear ideological elements in the Labor Party and in the crossbench (including Greens).
Labor is fully aware substantial AUKUS sub building work in Adelaide is essential because Adelaide is a new Labor heartland. Labor won all (but one) Federal seats on offer in Adelaide at the May 21, 2022 Election. Labor doesn’t want to lose any of these seats.
Also Labor, earlier in 2022, resoundingly won the South Australian State Election. The new Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas probably has a big future if /when he moves to Federal politics. He might be a future Labor Prime Minister one day.
The Enemy
Against Labor is the Liberals' new Leader, Peter Dutton, the Coalition’s former Defence Minister. Dutton might pursue the line that the AUKUS subs should be fully built overseas to have any chance of taking on China’s encroachments in a timely manner.
If this plays out Dutton could calculate that “Build AUKUS subs in Adelaide or not?” could split the Labor Party, between Right-Center Naval Strategic and Left Shipbuilding Industry wings.
Watch this space. These are early days for Labor working on SSNs and AUKUS generally. Surprises are likely.