Ways for Marles out of the submarine mess are presented in PETE COMMENTS below:
Brisbane Times Article
Anthony Galloway, foreign affairs and national security correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, has written an excellent articlefor The Brisbane Times, dated June 6, 2022. Galloway states in part:
"Expect submarine delays, Marles says, as he plans for defence capability gap
Defence Minister Richard Marles says he doubts Australia will be able to build its first nuclear submarine by the previous government’s deadline of 2038, accepting an interim fleet of conventional boats may be needed to avoid a serious capability gap in the nation’s defences.
“…The former government last year controversially dumped a $90 billion deal with France to build a conventional fleet of submarines in favour of building nuclear-powered submarines under a deal with the US and Britain, but it meant the timeline for the delivery blew out by years.
Former defence minister Peter Dutton maintained that the first of the nuclear submarines under the AUKUS agreement would likely arrive before 2038 when Australia’s Collins-class submarines are expected to start being taken out of service.
But [Marles] the defence minister and deputy prime minister suggested that timeline wasn’t a realistic expectation.
“I think in reality as the former government left office, the projection of most was that [delivery] was more likely to be in the mid-2040s,” Marles told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, which could leave a major capability gap.
Asked whether he would order Defence to look into building a conventional fleet of submarines, Marles said: “We need to look at how we bridge the gap. That’s all I can say. And my mind is open about how we do that.”
“I think that the failure of the former government in managing submarines was unforgivable and is really one of the worst procurement issues that we have seen in our country’s history,” he said.
“The challenge we now face is how we deal with them. There is no more important priority for me coming into this portfolio than this question.”…
“I think that the failure of the former government in managing submarines was unforgivable.” [said] Defence Minister Richard Marles…”
SEE THE WHOLE BRISBANE TIMESARTICLEBY ANTHONY GALLOWAY
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PETE COMMENTS
You'll note I wrote on June 4, 2022:
"...If we want 2 SSNs fast that means GD EB or HII Newport News Shipbuilding built Virginias
[This is] rather than stretching the much smaller UK industry resources which, for the next 10 years are concentrating on Dreadnought-class SSBNs.
The UK will suffer a no SSN Completion Gap between about 2027and about2044."
It seems clear Australia is being driven by UK Astute successor SSN(R) timelines, which are:
"The new class of submarine is expected to replace the Astute-class during the 2040s.[24]"
Regarding conventional submarines to fill any Australian submarine gap the already in train Collins Life of Type Extention (LOTE) Program should fill the gap. Note that Sweden has been successfully undertaking a defacto LOTE of its Gotland class subs.
The "alternative"? There are no off the (mythical) "shelf" very large conventional submarines with the large crew, speed, range and 20+ heavyweight shot characteristics that Australia needs. One would need to be specially designed - which was the Attack-class subs which we dumped in September 2021. To design and build "Attack-class 2.0" (from France, Germany or Japan) or "Collins 2.0" (Swedish help) would take about 10 years, ie. 2032 at a minimum, to bring them into RAN service.
An alternative SSN? As the US and UK seem unable to provide SSNs for Australian within a reasonable timeframe, France seems to be floating the option of Barracuda SSNs for Australia. Maybe French designed SSNs are a serious option if they can begin to enter Australian service in the 2030s.
Defence Minister Richard Marles says he doubts Australia will be able to build its first nuclear submarine by the previous government’s deadline of 2038, accepting an interim fleet of conventional boats may be needed to avoid a serious capability gap in the nation’s defences.
“…The former government last year controversially dumped a $90 billion deal with France to build a conventional fleet of submarines in favour of building nuclear-powered submarines under a deal with the US and Britain, but it meant the timeline for the delivery blew out by years.
Former defence minister Peter Dutton maintained that the first of the nuclear submarines under the AUKUS agreement would likely arrive before 2038 when Australia’s Collins-class submarines are expected to start being taken out of service.
But [Marles] the defence minister and deputy prime minister suggested that timeline wasn’t a realistic expectation.
“I think in reality as the former government left office, the projection of most was that [delivery] was more likely to be in the mid-2040s,” Marles told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, which could leave a major capability gap.
Asked whether he would order Defence to look into building a conventional fleet of submarines, Marles said: “We need to look at how we bridge the gap. That’s all I can say. And my mind is open about how we do that.”
“I think that the failure of the former government in managing submarines was unforgivable and is really one of the worst procurement issues that we have seen in our country’s history,” he said.
“The challenge we now face is how we deal with them. There is no more important priority for me coming into this portfolio than this question.”…
“I think that the failure of the former government in managing submarines was unforgivable.” [said] Defence Minister Richard Marles…”
SEE THE WHOLE BRISBANE TIMESARTICLEBY ANTHONY GALLOWAY
++++++++++++++++++
PETE COMMENTS
You'll note I wrote on June 4, 2022:
"...If we want 2 SSNs fast that means GD EB or HII Newport News Shipbuilding built Virginias
[This is] rather than stretching the much smaller UK industry resources which, for the next 10 years are concentrating on Dreadnought-class SSBNs.
The UK will suffer a no SSN Completion Gap between about 2027and about2044."
It seems clear Australia is being driven by UK Astute successor SSN(R) timelines, which are:
"The new class of submarine is expected to replace the Astute-class during the 2040s.[24]"
Regarding conventional submarines to fill any Australian submarine gap the already in train Collins Life of Type Extention (LOTE) Program should fill the gap. Note that Sweden has been successfully undertaking a defacto LOTE of its Gotland class subs.
The "alternative"? There are no off the (mythical) "shelf" very large conventional submarines with the large crew, speed, range and 20+ heavyweight shot characteristics that Australia needs. One would need to be specially designed - which was the Attack-class subs which we dumped in September 2021. To design and build "Attack-class 2.0" (from France, Germany or Japan) or "Collins 2.0" (Swedish help) would take about 10 years, ie. 2032 at a minimum, to bring them into RAN service.
An alternative SSN? As the US and UK seem unable to provide SSNs for Australian within a reasonable timeframe, France seems to be floating the option of Barracuda SSNs for Australia. Maybe French designed SSNs are a serious option if they can begin to enter Australian service in the 2030s.