SSNs are proving too delayed, expensive and hard for Australia to acquire.
Australia should stick to extending the life of Collins, while buying existing conventionally propelled ballistic missile submarines (SSBs) from South Korea.
1. I'm coming around to the view that SSN Batch building country, the UK, is of no help to Australia's SSN aspirations.
A "batch"? The UK is Commissioning the 7 Astutes as a batch, from 2010 to 2026.
Then, for Australia, there is the very unhelpful gap between UK batches with the UK only commissioning Astute successors SSN(R)s from the mid 2040s.
The UK batch builds SSNs for its own navy because it doesn't have the requirement for the large number of SSNs that would be produced by a Continuous build (of 1 or more SSNs every year).
Only the US (with Virginias) and China (probably with the future Type 095s) have the will, competitive need, industrial capacity and defence budget for Continuous build of SSNs.
2. From all I've read the US appears to have delegated to the UK the task of assisting Australia build AUKUS SSNs.
Otherwise it would be much more logical that constantly inter-operating Pacific and Indian Ocean allies (Australia and the US) formed an A-US SSN building alliance rather than AUKUS. The UK, most of the time, is a far off North Atlantic power these days.
Reasons for the US delegation to the UK seem to be based on a US expectation that the US will never deliver its own world's best SSNs to Australia. Here are five reasons:
- the US sees it as essential that all Virginia SSNs produced go to its own navy. Total US SSN numbers will soon decline while threats/commitments for US SSNs increase. The US largely built its SSN force to face the Russian threat but added to that the China threat is even greater.
- the US's "F-22 like"national security tradition of not exporting its complete-most-sensitive weapons. Yes Australia now has some US reactor tech, but is the US offering whole of Virginia tech?
- US SSN building companies, GD-EB and HII, have never exported whole SSN tech, because that may eventually boost international SSN building commercial competition against them.
- Also GD-EB or HII providing Australia with SSNs or overseeing Virginia construction in Adelaide is a very inefficient Contractural, Administrative and Training process. GD-EB and HII don't have the time or resources to do this while they are fully committed building Virginia SSNs and Columbia SSBNs.
and
- delivery of Virginias to Australia is politically and financially risky (for GD-EB and HII and Australia) due to the unpredictability of the Next US President and the fickleness of US Congressional export permissions. Australia is caught between perhaps one-term, US President Biden and the far worse prospect of the return of Trump. Trump, with no sense of alliance loyalty, could consider AUKUS "Biden's Deal to be broken".
Trump is currently odds on favourite to win the November 2024 Presidential Election https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2024-5479667
3. Instead we should rely on the Collins Life of Type Extension (LOTE) (out to 2042) and Australia simultaneously beginning purchase of four already developed South Korean
KSS-III conventionally propelled ballistic missile submarines (SSBs).
This SSB idea runs ahead of current overt Australian strategic thought. But in the end Australia needs its own independent strategic deterrent against the China threat, that is moving south. More details on Australian SSB thinking in a future article.