Anonymous has posed the questions in bolded Red with his answers in bolded Blue. Under some are Pete comments in Black.
1(a). What can Taiwan do to discourage a Chinese blockade?
Taiwan should try get Hammerhead type smart mines with some means of placing them around Chinese (PRC) ports. I advocated for these before.
[Pete comment: Mine laying by Taiwanese (T) aircraft would be shot down by the PRC, laying by T's ancient subs would be detected by PRC subs or its fixed undersea sensors. The US method of choice is laying by large US expendable UUVs.]
1(b).
Also try to stock up on food and consumables.
[Pete comment: In 2018, T's foodself-sufficiency rate was only 35%, which still may apply. T lacksnatural resources and relies heavily on imported energy sources, with 98 per cent of its energy and mineral resources from overseas.Natural resources such as coal, iron ore and other metalscontinue to be major import items.]
2. What can the democratic world do to discourage a Chinese blockade?
Democratic world should organize "peaceful" blockades of China traffic at choke points too far for Chinese navy to clear. Economic collateral damage would be horrific, but letting China win is worse.
[Pete comment: If PRC's blockade is restricted to the already tested ballistic missile impacts in waters surrounding T then this US led escalation could start World War Three, which would be worse.
The US still officially subscribes to the One China Policy which has not officially changed from the 1972 expression"The United States' One-China policy was first stated in the Shanghai Communiqué of 1972: "the United States acknowledges that Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China.[14] The United States does not challenge that position."]
3. Would "Freedom of Navigation" exercises be useful?
Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) may be useful to show China that west is united. China also probably does not want to fire first shot at combined western fleets. Wonder if you agree.
[Pete Comment: I don't agree, after the US led Afghanistan and Iraq wars, with Australia being led by the US into another shooting war - this time that may see 1,000s of Australian casualties.]
4. If/when a blockade happens, how can Taiwanese endurance of the blockade be maximized?
To maximize endurance, stock up on fuel, food, munitions ASAP.
[Pete Comment: See my response to red 1(b).)
5. If/when a blockade happens, what can Taiwan and the democratic world do to maximize the cost/risk to China?
Taiwan to mine Chinese harbors once China starts blockade would incur no additional risks to Taiwan, would not require action by west. Always liked this option. West embargo Chinese trade would be catastrophic to everyone, but Chinese victory would be worse. This should happen when China attacks any shipping near Taiwan.
6. How far out is the threat? Is there time to get more hardware, or must we go with what we have on hand?
My gut feel (25% chance) is China may choose to move while west is preoccupied with Ukraine, which would mean very near term. This requires having a plan using equipment on hand.
25% chance happens after Xi gets his next term [maybe in November 2022] , once he decides that west may not make concessions and relative position to Taiwan will stop improving in his favor. Gives us time to stock on food and munitions.
[Pete comment: Xi may be more likely to be voted leader for another 5 years in Nov 2022 if he has become a PRC "wartime President". Xi may also wish to attack T before the unpredictable, relatively anti-PRC Trump has a chance to return to the US Presidency after the US November 2024 election.]
25% chance he thinks arms race is in his favor, and his position will be better in 5 years, in which case Taiwan and west need to get new kit
The actions above need to be politically AND militarily realistic given the circumstances.
[Pete comment: Blundering into World War Three over Taiwan is unrealistic.]