China doesn't suffer from the downsides of new party in power commotion from elections every 3-5 years. So its long term senior officials and CCP leaders can keep their eyes on the ball, One China treaties and all. My take Taiwan by missile theory may make invasion lower risk for China.
Timelines that may increase or decrease chances that China may invade Taiwan within the next 2 years include:
- Added to supply chain slowdowns China is experiencing a drought, leading to hydropower and food shortages that are slowing economic growth. Hence value of a Peoples War distraction.
- the risk Xi needs the extra popularity that a Xi created wartime Presidency would provide. This is before or after the November 2022 Party Congress. The Congress is expected to certify Xi as leader for a third term which may pan out to life.
- the US midterm Elections in November 2022 may associate Biden with losing Democrats while the Trump myth wins. China may want to take Taiwan while Biden is muddling along, ie. before November 2024 when a tougher US President might be elected.
We live in interesting times.