Concerning Russian withdrawals within Ukraine and the increasing long range of Ukraine's missile artillery AljazeerareportsSeptember 20, 2022:
"Russia’s Black Sea Fleet [BSF] relocating some of its submarines: UK"
"The UK defence ministry says submarines ‘almost certainly’ moved as Moscow fears them being hit.
Moscow has likely moved its Kilo-class submarines from the Crimean peninsula [see "BSF" in this Table] to southern Russia over fears of them being struck by long-range Ukrainian fire, according to British intelligence.
In a daily briefing on [September 20, 2022], the United Kingdom’s defence ministry said those submarines had “almost certainly” been moved to Krasnodar Krai in mainland Russia, instead of a naval base at Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula.
…Moscow considers Crimea as Russian territory, but the peninsula is internationally recognised as part of Ukraine, which wants it back.
…Kyiv forces swept through the Kharkiv region this month after bursting through the front line, sending thousands of Russian troops fleeing while abandoning their tanks and ammunition.
…Officially, Russia announced it was moving some troops out of the Kharkiv region to regroup elsewhere. But the losses are being openly acknowledged on state television by local commentators calling for escalation.
Putin has promised to continue, recently warning of a “more serious” military response to Ukraine’s “acts of terrorism”.
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PETE COMMENT
Its unknowable if Putin is seriously contemplating a tactical nuclear escalation. However its significant that Putin would have authorised Russian politician and general Andrey Gurulev, in this second article, to openly contemplate tactical nuclear war. Gurulev said:
“It will not provoke a nuclear war, because we will use operative - not strategic - nuclear weapons on [Kalibr and Iskander missiles], and bombs on planes. [probably Su-30s or larger]”
If Russia escalates to a tactical nuclear stage it is possible Russia might do a small high altitude warning nuclear explosion over the Black Sea, with the implication Ukrainian armed forces (or even civilians) may be the next target.
Russia using Chemical Weapons presents a perhaps more likely initial danger.
It seems Putin would prefer to trash the region and kill additional tens of thousands rather than lose his personal control of Russia.