The Australian Nuclear Powered Submarine Taskforce (NPST?) has constantly been advising Canberra based senior RAN, DoD officers/officials and, of course, politicians. This is in order for the Australian Government to announce which country’s AUKUS submarine design will be selected or a "common AUKUS design". The decision is due within the first quarter of this year (2023) (ie. by Friday March 31, 2023). Also relevant in advising government is the bigger picture Australian Defence Strategic Review - due to report around the same time.
As an aside I’m guessing the NPST’s main HQ is in Canberra (at Defence Central, Russel Offices?) to facilitate frequent and intensive reporting to government.
My predictions of which country’s submarine design will be selected in the AUKUS SSN competition (with SSNs to be (party built in the UK or US) + (much built in Adelaide)) is:
UK 50% chance- If so, very likely the SSN(R). The SSN(R) will very likely be powered by the UK’s PWR3 reactor which is already partly based on the US S9G reactor (which powers Virginia-class SSNs). The PWR3 will also likely power the UK’s future Dreadnought-class SSBNs.
My prediction that a UK SSN design is most likely is part due to then UK PM Boris Johnson announcing UK jobs and funding, implicitly for an AUKUS SSN(R), on the same day, September 15, 2021, that the AUKUS pact was announced. There was no similar US SSN(X) or Improved Virginia SSN, aimed at AUKUS, announcement that day. Higher odds for the UK SSN(R ) have also increased by the UK MoD’s decision to quietly publicize, through various websites (eg. NavalNews), the expectation that the SSN(R) will have a multi-missile type vertical launch system (VLS).
VLS is very likely a major attribute for Australian selectors. This is because missiles more advanced, faster, larger and longer range than the current US-UK SSN Tomahawk VL missile will more flexibly fit into a VLS compared to a virtually unalterable 533mm horizontal torpedo tube. In short, VLS makes the future SSN(R) more competitive against the US Virginia (a SSN that already has VLS).
An Australian order of 8 SSN(R)s on top of a UK RN order of 7 SSN(R)s will improve the economies of scale of SSN(R) production to the UK's benefit. This may translate into the UK giving Australia a slight discount, maybe of the order of 5%, on SSN(R)s.
No similar economies of scale benefit would exist for the US if Australia were permitted to buy 8 SSN(X)/Virginias - as the production run for the USN alone may amount to fifty subs over 30 years, out to 2053.
If Australia buys a UK or US SSN design either of the designs chosen will still incorporate the US AN/BYG-1 combat system (aka " the TCS") of a type that is already in our Collins-class submarines.
US 30% chance- If so this may be a future SSN(X) or Improved Virginia-class SSN. These may be powered by the existing S9G reactor already in current Virginias or even by a future S9W reactor, not yet on the USN's long list.
Australia picking a US SSN design is less likely in part due to repeated statements from US admirals and, lately, politicians, that a US supply of Virginias to Australia, or even helping build them within Australia, will be too disruptive to the US SSN industry in its main role of supplying the USN’s pressing needs. US needs are increasing, due to the long term Russian submarine threat, but also due to the rising threat of China building subs of increasing capability. The threat from North Korean SSBsalso requires more SSNs for the USN.
Furthermore APDRreports Jan 1, 2023 "The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) has concluded that the country’s already overstretched industrial base faces increasing difficulties constructing Columbia nuclear missile firing SSBNs and this is already causing delays on the Virginia program...In other words, for the foreseeable future it will be impossible to ramp up the speed of the construction of the Virginia class..."
In any case the USN and broader government does not like exporting its most sensitive military/naval technology if it can at all avoid it. The advanced tech Virginia SSN is up there with the F-22stealth fighter. The F-22 cannot be exported under US law.
Other Possibilities 20% Chance
A common "AUKUS" design (with UK, US and Australian design input) is selected, with the UK being Australia's main sponsor-builder.
OR
The Australian government decides to delay a decision partly due to the extreme cost of 8 AUKUS SSNs (whose numbers may be reduced to 6).