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Submarine Costs Killing Aus Defence Strategic Review?

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The A$268 Billion estimated by the Australian Government as necessary to prepare for and buy Australia’s future nuclear submarines may have constrained funds for most of the defence purchases that were to be recommended by Australia's Defence Strategic Review (DSR)The subs are to be 3 to 5 imported Virginias and then up to 8 SSN-AUKUSs home built in Osborne, South Australia. 

The secret version of the DSR Report was handed to PM Albanese and Defence Minister Marles by the main author, retired Air Chief Marshal Sir Angus Houston, on February 14, 2023 (photo above). The public version of the Report was expected to be released basically the same time as the March 14, 2023 AUKUS submarine announcement. A delay caused by culling of subsequently unaffordable Report recommendations may have occurred.

Albanese would be aware of significant political and public resistance to paying A$100s Billions for the subs and therefore public reluctance to pay for other new big ticket defence items. 

A possible big ticket highlight of the public DSR Report may have been a recommendation that Australia consider buying a squadron of B-21 future stealth bombers from the US. A$100s Billions for the subs would clash with A$10s Billions for a squadron of B-21s to be based in central Australia. This would probably place a B-21 purchase, always a long shot for Australia, off the table, eliminating it as a Report recommendation.

Alternatively the DSR Report might re-announce the October 2022 announcement of a plan for B-52s being based part-time at Tindal, in the Northern Territory. But even a Tindal infrastructure upgrade for the B-52s and for other support aircraft might cost A$Billions. So a Tindal upgrade might also be unpopular with the public on defence bill-shock grounds.

In short the huge future cost of the subs may have severely constrained DSR recommendations making the public DSR Report a very thin document indeed. Might be a great opportunity for the Report to wax lyrical about those subs?! :)


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