There has been considerable discussion by submarine commentators (here and here) over the very long term Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP). The Canadian competition is to replace Canada’s Victoria-class with new subs commissioned in 15 to 25 years time. Canada needs a large submarine design to meet its under ice and oceanic long range, long endurance needs. Twelve conventional subs are envisaged, valued at around US$62 Billion (presumably including subs, training, spares and many other add-ons).
There has just been an announcement that two South Korean (SK) shipbuilding companies, Hanwha Ocean (was DSME) and HD HHI, are competing for the future Canadian order. Apparently both SK companies signed a technical cooperation agreement with British defence firm Babcock on June 7, 2023 to strengthen their future bids.
Mention of SK companies boosts expectations that KSS-3s might become contenders. KSS-3 Batch 2s offer AIP and LIBs for longer deep submergence. Important for Canada they should also offer longer and safer under ice performance. Japan’s two Soryu Mark
2s (see Oryu and Toryu at Table here) with AIP and LIBs also might be a future contender type. Japan's Taigei-class with its higher tonnage of
LIBs also might be a contender. Long snorting range of these large SK and Japanese
subs also might be important for Canada’s three ocean needs.
Canada might take 5 to 10
years to select a winning design, so it is early days yet. If Canada joins AUKUS
even (US permitting) the UK SSN-AUKUS design might be a contender for Canada in about 10 years
time.
In part anticipating a multi-year gap between the withdrawal of the Victoria-class and introduction of a new class Canada is also developing an XLUUV undersea drone capability.
Canada might also be interested
in the (likely 3,000+ tonne) winner of the Netherlands’ Walrus replacement
competition. For that competition Germany is
building large Type 212CDs, France is offering a conventional Barracuda “Shortfin” design and Sweden is offering a large “Oceanic Extended Range” A26 design . These large Euro-sub contenders are waiting for a Dutch decision in
the mid-late 2020s.
However SK and Japan still
have the advantage of operating at sea AIP and LIBs in large submarines. Italy’s
AIP and LIBs Type 212NFS suffers from its small size and might need TKMS approval for any export to a
third country.
Canada’s future submarine competition is yet another long term project that SubMatts periodically will return to.