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Too Few Taiwanese Subs, Probably Too Late.

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This article of Sept 25, 2023 announces the launch of Taiwan's first domestically built so-called “Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS)”. The sub, named "Hai Kun", was launched at CSBC Corporation's Kaohsiung shipyard on Sept 25. It will undergo harbor acceptance trails from October 1, 2023. It might be delivered to the Taiwanese Navy before the end of 2024. A second IDS is expected to be delivered by 2027.

Meanwhile Taiwan’s 2 Dutch built Hai Lung-classsubs, launched in the1986, are  37 years old. Too old, with much obsolete equipment and probably noisy, to be considered fully operational. Taiwan’s 2 World War Two US builtHai Shih-classsub’s are 79-80 years old, making them accidents waiting to happen, hence very scrap worthy.

The PRC’s government instructed Global TimesreportedSept 25, along the lines – Taiwan is dreaming if it thinks its 2 modern IDS submarine force, by 2027, will make much difference. In addition to many more PRC subs the PRC has many other ASW platforms, including aircraft and surface ships. 

Pete Comment

Taiwan’s 2 new subs by 2027 are probably Japanese designed and joint Taiwan-Japanese built. As both Japan and Taiwan have efficient shipbuilding industries the 2 submarines will have been built very quickly. But if the PRC invades by the oft described target year of 2027 Taiwan's two modern IDS subs and (by then) two 40 year old Hai Lung-class subs will be quickly destroyed. A larger force of US SSNs (Trump permitting) and Japanese SSKs will be very much needed to aid Taiwan. 

I assume the PRC has added to its numerous mobile ASW resources with an intense network of fixed undersea sensors and smart mines programmed to detect and destroy Western (including Taiwanese) subs and ships.



In support of my IDS is Japanese designed theory: Compare model (photo above from many outlets) of Taiwan's IDS with the similar extended fin/sail in similar position also with X-cross rudders of Japan's Taigei-class sub below (Photo courtesy Seaforce online).




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