On October 9, 2023 retortPouch commented along the lines:
I agree with Pete that it's difficult to really figure out the design heritage [of Taiwan's just announced Hai Kun-class aka "Narwhal" (TSS-3s) because the Japanese Uzushio-class onwards and Dutch Zwaardvis-class diesel submarine families are quite explicitly export Barbel-class derived]. They share very similar design features. Taiwan's Hai Lung-class (TSS-2s) are indigenized Zwaardvis class subs, which can provide a design template.
However it is known that Japanese manufacturing technical asst. was provided in the form of very critical welding technology by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI).
As for the TSS-2s’ and
TSS-3s’ usefulness, I suspect they are particularly useful, and not too late, in
contradiction to the PRC’s Global Times article. Taiwan’s subs are/will be indeed inferior in indiscretion ratio to the PRC's Stirling AIP equipped Yuan-class subs.
But the growing presence of an expanding fleet of credible Taiwanese subsurface
platforms provides many options to counter PLA-N maritime action. This concerns
especially Taiwan’s options in the periods of tension prior to war when there
is PRC political threats of blockades, even if not actually executed. During the
buildup to war Taiwan and the PRC may both launch special operations,
electronic intelligence gathering and seabed operations (eg. cutting undersea
telecommunications cables and smart mine laying etc.). This is a set of ops
which Taiwan finds difficult to execute right now. Taiwanese submarine and
seabed operations would complicate PRC planning, and provides exploitable
opportunities to effect large changes in the battle situation.
The fact that the Global Times comes out to mention the undersea war should flag notice.
I am not very confident in
Taiwan's ability to fend off a PLA "takeover" scenario right now.
However, I reckon things
are slowly going on the right track, especially since the end of the Administration
of Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan’s President from 2000 to 2008.
It is hard for me to tell if [Taiwan’s military strengthening, in particular building TSS-3s] is happening fast enough. This is because the CCP, via the PLA, itself has a limited risk appetite, and cannot simply charge headlong into a painful, costly and embarrassing campaign. The balance right now is complex... making it more complex is the subs' job.