In
response to Anonymous interesting points of November 19, 2023, all the considerations in Australia's future SSN(s) build are very complex.:
Yes
"one class is far safer over the thirty years we will operate these
SSNs."
But
a major concern is timing.
Given
the combination of the UK's and Australia's very inefficient Ship/Submarine
building industries it is possible UK built SSN-AUKUSs may be delayed until the mid 2040s.
It
is likely Virginias cannot be delivered to Australia in the 2030s (basically
because the efficient, but distracted, US's main effort is building Columbia
SSBNs in that decade) with too few new Virginias even for the USN. Equally the UK will be building its own latest generation SSBNs, the Dreadnoughts, throughout the 2030s, with launchings every 3 or 4 years. See these over-optimistic SSN-AUKUS enter into service with UK RN timings.
So that may well leave Australia with no SSNs in the 2030s. Australia will suffer considerable technical and political risks in the 2040s in choosing between the Virginia Block VIs or SSN-AUKUSs. Relying on the US to deliver the world’s most
advanced SSN technology is already politically risky as it relies on highly variable presidential personalities, unstable congressional politics and perhaps a reluctant USN.
The SSN-AUKUS will be advanced, though not so much as a Virginia VI, but less politically risky. The UK RN might only be able to afford 8 x SSN AUKUS. The UK needs our money and economies of scale that at Australian SSN-AUKUS order can bring. Meanwhile the US needs neither as the USN requires 66 x Virginias (see right sidebar) so the US can take us or leave us, even if we are paying an "industrial base" deposit in advance.
I don't think GDEB will be available to supervise an SSN-AUKUS
build in Adelaide. This is in part because GDEB's (and US
Government's) highest naval priority in the 2030s will be the Columbia SSBN
build. Note GDEB might be very busy until 2042:
"In March 2016, the U.S. Navy chose General Dynamics Electric Boat as the prime contractor and lead design yard [for the Columbia SSBN].[21] Electric Boat...will do most of the work on all 12 Columbias, including final assembly...All 12 submarines are expected to be completed by 2042" see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbia-class_submarine#Overview
It
is actually the other Virginia SSN builder, HII that will be helping Western Australia maintain Virginias and Astutes and South Australia to build SSN-AUKUS:
- a
major boost to Western Australia’s maritime defence industry has been achieved
with the signing of a MoU the State Government and HII https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/wa-government-signs-mou-with-huntington-ingalls-industries-australia/
and
- HII
is assisting the South Australian shipbilding sector including on
"SSN-AUKUS"https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/us-partnership-to-shore-up-south-australias-shipbuilding-capabilities/
HII
working with BAE to build the front halves (and not reactor rear halves) of 6
or all 8 SSN-AUKUS in Adelaide makes sense.
Also
Lockheed Martin Australia (assisted by GD Mission Systems) will be integrating the Combat System (database,
weapons and sensors) which will be the bulk of the front end build for the SSN-AUKUS.