The wishful thinking that France
might sell nuclear subs to Australia just won’t die off despite the evidence.
When, in 2016, Australia was seeking a "regionally superior submarine" which would have needed many characteristics of an SSN, Naval Group's Chief Executive Herve Guillou ambiguously told AAP on March 24, 2016:
"“If, in 2050, Australia wants a nuclear submarine, they can design a nuclear submarine,” see https://indaily.com.au/news/2016/03/24/france-pitches-nuke-sub-option-for-australia/
Hence Guillou was only floating a possible French SSN offer from 2050, that is AFTER France completed the Attack class SSK contract to Australia. Why didn't French government owned Naval Group simply offer an SSN to Australia in 2016?
Later, in 2022, in the face of the US and UK's AUKUS submarine offer France’s President Macron said French Barracuda SSNs were not for sale to Australia.
Macron said the sale of any nuclear submarines to Australia “risks increasing tensions with China and make Australia dependent on other countries.” See https://see.news/macron-warns-australias-nuclear-subs-deal-will-not-deliver of 18 November 2022.
France appears unwilling to risk alienating its higher priority trade partner China.
On the broad political level the France-China relationship was raised to the level of “global strategic partnership” in 2004 which was reaffirmed in 2019.
During Macron's April 2023 visit to China he emphasised strategic autonomy, suggesting that Europe could become a "third superpower” less dependent on the US. As Australia is dependent on its major ally the US, Macron's de Gaulle like non alignment is of little help to Australia.
Despite France describing itself as an Indo-Pacific military power I think it likely Macron sees France's military power in the region as slight. France simply cannot compete with China's rising regional naval power. France's entire permanent Indo-Pacific fleet centres on several aging light frigates of the Floreal-class (to be replaced by corvettes in 10 years time). This small surface force doesn't compare with the hundreds of more modern, larger ships of China's Navy.
So France is aware of the limits of its power. It did not want to offer a complete SSN to Canada or to Brazil as this would anger the US and France does not want to offer an SSN to Australia as this would anger China.