On December 30, 2023 Anonymous
from France commented to the effect:
You [Pete] are
right that the French are not a direct substitute for the superpower American alliance
against China’s regional "assertiveness" (to be diplomatic).
You have to
look through the French perspective.
As the
result of hundreds of years, sometimes of colonial presence, about 2 million
French citizens are scattered between the Mozambique Strait (in the western
Indian Ocean) east to French Polynesia (mid Pacific Ocean). Those French territories
[see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overseas_France
] have the same status as the State of Hawaii has to the US.
These
overseas French citizens, since 1945, have no desire to be independent. In the
case of New Caledonia, 3 consecutive referendums over 20
years defeated Melanesian nationalist urges, with New Caledonia remaining French. These citizen communities
are heavily mixed ethnically and religiously. France’s string of regional alliances
with friendly neighbours (eg. India, Australia) is natural and not "projecting
power". The French military presence is commensurate with past threats (and
"showing the flag").
France
understands Australia’s belief in the American alliance against China. Contrary
to popular belief the French are nor anti-American – there being a long history
of French-American alliance, since 1778, and even earlier.
At the end of the day countries are alone - as the Ukrainians and Israelis will discover probably. [Pete comment: Lucky Israel has nuclear weapons to ensure its independence].
Trump [most likely to return as President] is clearly a transactional, mercantilist leader, raising alarm
in NATO, but it is just clearer than before. Nothing new under the Sun.