As Virginias for the RAN might only arrive in the late 2030s, it is fortunate the first Collins LOTE is scheduled from "mid-2026". See the Australian Submarine Agency (ASA) reference https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/collins-class-submarines
US Virginias
The most authoritative source, the ASA, is no longer talking first Virginia for Australia in 2032. Rather ASA is on record as writing https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/australias-nuclear-powered-submarines :
"The United States intends to sell Australia 3 Virginia Class SSNs (nuclear-powered submarines) from as soon as the early 2030s, which was authorised by the US Congress in December 2023. Australia retains the option to seek approval for up to 2 more if needed....".
The US offer very much relies on much higher yearly Virginia production, through to commissioning, rates of Virginias than the US (now also entering full Columbia SSBN production) has been able to achieve since the 1990s.
Also a US President in the 2030s must be satisfied that the USN is receiving all the Virginias it needs before he/she can approve any spare Virginias for Australia.
UK SSN-AUKUS
The UK's final Astute (Agincourt) might be commissioned in 2026 or later. Simultaneously many of the UKs limited nuclear sub building force will be committed to the 4 new generation SSBN (Dreadnought) program until about 2045. This is if Dreadnoughts are commissioned every 4 years from 2033 see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dreadnought-class_submarine#Boats_of_the_class
About the SSN-AUKUS for Australia the Australian Submarine Agency writes - see https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/australias-nuclear-powered-submarines :
"The UK will commence construction of its first SSN-AUKUS in Barrow-in-Furness UK, as early as the late 2020s. The UK intends to deliver its first SSN-AUKUS to the UK Royal Navy in the late 2030s.
[It is only after SSN-AUKUS are delivered to the UK RN that they can be completed at Osborne, Adelaide, for the RAN.]
Hence the Australian Submarine Agency, very ambiguously on timings, writes - https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/australias-nuclear-powered-submarines :
"Australia's nuclear-powered submarines - SSN-AUKUS - will be based on the UK's next generation design that incorporates technology from all 3 nations, including cutting edge US submarine technologies."
In plain English the UK RN will need to commission its first SSN-AUKUS from "late 2030s" then one should expect several years of trials before commissioning this first-of-class (say 2042) then years to tool up Osborne, Adelaide for production - (say from 2045).
French Barracuda SSNs
There is a myth that France could deliver SSNs to the RAN simply and more quickly if President Macron or Naval Group so will it. But France's very limited NUCLEAR (as distinct from CONVENTIONAL) submarine designing-building workforce are mainly committed to finishing their own Navy's last Barracudas - until 2031 see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barracuda-class_submarine_%28France%29#Boats.
In parallel the balance of France's NUCLEAR submarine workforce are working on France's 3rd Generation SSBN (French acronym "SNLE 3G") see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNLE_3G#Design_and_operation :
"first steel [was] cut for the vessels in 2023 and completed submarines delivered at a rate of one every five years from 2035, with the programme completing in 2050."
All this means is France will not have some nuclear manpower resources for
any Australian Barracuda SSN Project until the late 2040s, if not after 2050. That includes too few Frenchmen even to train up
an Australian workforce - with our workforce totally inexperienced in building
SSNs.
Hedging Plan
As SSNs from the US are politically unprovable until the 2030s and unlikely to be in the form of SSN-AUKUS for the RAN before 2045, and even less likely and later from France, a hedging plan is appropriate. That is:
- as ASA has written, Australia doing its Collins LOTE. I suggest Saab with its experience, effectively LOTEing the Gotland-class, can assist see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gotland-class_submarine#Mid-life_upgrade_contract .
- Australia is also developing XLUUVs (partly under AUKUS Pillar 2). XLUUVs can lay smartmines, do electronic intercepts and other reconnaissance and even tow sonars.
- Australia alongside the US and UK, partly under AUKUS, could develop ever longer range missiles for long range strike,
including anti-shipping.
Please don't get me started on the possibilities of the Australian developed third generation "SILEX" laser enrichment of Uranium technology or where I'm going might be too obvious...