The Collins Life of Type Extension (LOTE) has been little discussed of late drawing suspicions it may be cancelled like many RAN ship and submarine projects. However I consulted the Australian Submarine Agency (ASA) website which has recently added more certainty to the LOTE project, budget and all.
See https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/collins-class-submarines
"...Australia's Collins Class submarine fleet will undergo a life-of-type extension (LOTE) at Osborne shipyard in South Australia.
The LOTE will keep the Collins Class submarine
operationally capable and available into the 2040s, supporting the transition
to Australia's nuclear-powered submarines.
Budget: $4.3 - $6.4 billion
Timeframe: First LOTE scheduled for mid-2026
Industry: more than 1500 jobs
Location: Osborne South Australia (LOTE) and
Henderson Western Australia (sustainment)"
PETE COMMENT
The estimated range of the Budget: $4.3 - $6.4 billion (Australian dollars) is clearly quite broad.
Some defence commenters, with some accuracy, claim it is best to triple an Australian government defence program budget estimate due to the many uncertainties impacting multi-year projects. Such uncertainties include:
- shortage of skilled shipbuilding labour in the "white" Western world generally (meaning higher wages than intended are required to attract labour). No such shortage exists in Northeast Asian countries.
- higher than expected inflation, which has already hit Australia since January 2023
- project deadlines not met, part caused by:
- the Australian defence industry tendency to add many more upgrade items "bells and whistles" than originally envisaged.
So the new "Rule of Triples" ((you saw it coined here first) in Australian budgeting may mean (with 2 years of LOTEing for each of the 6 Collins = 12 years) by 2038 the budget may well balloon to between A$13 Billion and A$19 Billion.
Some might now say - "well if LOTEing costs that much why don't we buy/build a new class of Interim Conventional Submarines?
To which I counter:
It would take about 3 years (ie. by 2027) for the Australian Government to summon up the support for New Conventional Submarines.
Then 2 years minimum to choose the foreign main contractor (2029).
Then the Build in Osborne Political Reality (ie. no whole sub foreign build) pans out to Signing the Contract (2030).
Then the always slow Osborne build takes 15 years (2045) until first of class is launched.
Then 2 years ironing out working up bugs until Commissioning first of class (2047).
Then each successive submarine in the class would take around 18 months (ie. June 2048. December 2050, June 2052 etc).
The kicker is these New Conventional "Interim" Submarine timing realities would directly clash with the SSN-AUKUS timings which may start to be built in Osborne in 2042.
So LOTEing makes sense especially if Saab Kockums is involved, in part because Saab did the Mid-Life Upgrade of Sweden's Gotland-class, similar to Collins in significant ways. A new Combat System for the Collins, integrated by Lockheed Martin, may be a high price aspect. New diesels needed, probably MTU 4000s, will also be expensive. Submarines are always expensive.