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One of China's remaining Type 035 Ming-class conventional submarine soon to be scrapped or sold off to Bangladesh (and other small nations?).
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A Russian built Kilo conventional submarine - main users are Russia, India and China. Vietnam is a growing operator (having bought 6).
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India feels threatened by the prospect of increasing Chinese submarine proliferation in the Indian Ocean. Such proliferation comes through such means as:
- Chinese anti-piracy conventional and nuclear propelled subs moving across the Indian Ocean for operations off the Horn of Africa,
- submarine visits to such ports as Columbo, Sri Lanka, and
- sale of Chinese subs to such Indian neighbours as Bangladesh (around 2019) and perhaps in future to Burma and Pakistan.
For more than a year there have been reports of a pending sale of obsolescent Chinese Ming-class submarines to Bangladesh. See my article http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2013/12/china-selling-two-type-035-ming-class.htmlof December 24, 2013. It is highly likely that, after expected delivery of the Mings in 2019, part of a Bangladesh Ming crew and on-shore maintainers would be Chinese for a transition period. This would cause a range of anxieties in India.
In late 2014 Indian intelligence and the Indian Ministry of External Affairs have pushed the possibility (or for India a hope) that Bangladesh might buy Russian submarines instead.
It is unclear whether these "Russian" Submarines would be:
- new build Kilos (surely too expensive for Bangladesh without credit-finance)
- used Kilos from Russia (cheaper but probably unreliable with a short remaining service life) or
- ex-Indian Kilos (cheaper but probably unreliable with a short remaining service life).
Two nations that probably will not buy submarines in the short to medium term are:
- the Philippines (it usually receives low-or-no cost used naval and coastguard vessels) - see http://thediplomat.com/2014/12/the-philippine-navys-submarine-quest/ December 31, 2013, and
- Burma - see http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2014/01/29/Burmas-submarine-dream.aspxJanuary 29, 2014.
Pete