Hi Scott at 11/07/2024 12:11 AM
The super secretive Australian Submarine Agency likely has an Alternative Scenarios ("Plan B, C and D") Planning Section, probably thinking along the following lines:
Even if Trump cancelled the Virginia class offer I (Pete) don't think he (the US) would prevent the UK supplying SSN AUKUSs to Australia. There is too much cash for the declining UK economy at stake. Therefore the UK would exert its still considerable political influence on the US to make the SSN AUKUS offer stand.
On French SSNs and SK SSKs:
China is certainly unhappy (and India possibly) with any SSNs being
supplied to Australia. There are many reasons why France would hesitate at
providing Barracuda/Suffrens to Australia.
- One being France rates trade and (Indian and Pacific oceans) strategic vulnerability from China higher than trade with Australia.
- Also until
the early 2040s France's limited nuc sub sector is fully committed supplying
the remaining Suffrens and the 4 x third generation SSBNs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNLE_3G to the French Navy. This is to the exclusion of multi-SSN foreign orders.
- Australia was also unimpressed with France's nuc subs for the French Navy first priorities expressed by France in 2021. French Navy priorities were to come first before the delayed Australians Attack-class program was fully tackled some time in the 2030s. On those French priorities see my https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2021/02/frances-new-ssbn-aus-attack-class-2nd.html
I don't think the South Korean (SK) KSS-III VLS loadout is suitable for Australia's
strategic circumstances. The clear China target is too far for slow, limited
range, KSS-IIIs (compared to SSNs) to sail from Fleet Base West to within future Australian nuclear missile striking distance of PRC coastal targets.
However if SK industry, in SK, in under 10 years, could build standard SSKs, like the DSME-3000 (which is not burdened by K-VLS silos and has AIP
and LIBs) then it may be a good and
time sensitive replacement for the Collins. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KSS-III_submarine#DSME-3000
Cheers Pete