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Osama bin Laden, some time before his execution in early May 2011
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It is highly likely that when President Obama assumed office in January 2009 he would have been briefed by American intelligence that bin Laden had been under house arrest at the Abbottabad, Pakistan, compound since late 2005. While his predecessor, President Bush, appears to have been aware since late 2005 itself.
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Former General and President of Pakistan (June 20, 2001 - August 18, 2008) Pervez Musharraf. An astute, hands on leader, who also appointed senior ISI and Intelligence Bureau officers. He would have been aware of the bin Laden house arrest operation since its inception in 2005.
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Why do we trust President Obama's and Pakistan's narrative of Osama bin Laden's final years?
Do you accept parts or all of the following narrative or accept America’s unlikely narrative that the US had no idea where bin Laden was from the time bin Laden left Tora Bora in late 2001 to the time the US “discovered” his whereabouts in late 2010?
I wrote about my suspicions about bin Laden being '...hemmed in..' (which turns out to be under house arrest) in 2007. This below, in the Comments section of
http://defensetech.org/2007/09/13/why-bin-laden-isnt-rotting-at-gitmo/ "Pete · [commented] 256 weeks ago" .
"This Defense Tech article reads like a Bush Administration media release.
At Tora Bora, shortly after 9/11, bin Laden was permitted to escape because Bush decided to rely on a porous Pakistani Army blocking force. Bush and his men knew that the Pakistani's were frequently sympathetic to al Qaeda and the to the Taliban. Hence no surprises all round that bin Laden was allowed to escape.
Why? The bin Ladens are one of the great familiies of Saudi Arabia who provided financial assistance to President Bush as well as in oil ventures before he entered politics.
Basically the US and Saudi Arabia have made a deal that bin Laden shouldn't be killed but just hemmed in. The Arab's don't want bin Laden to be killed to become a popular religious martyr for fear of destabilising Saudi Arabia.
The Bush Administration has remained true to its word. Bush has a hands off policy regarding the architect of 9/11 but has invaded Iraq for less.
Pete"
A former, though recent, head of Indian foreign intelligence (RAW) estimated the following in 2011 "Do you know how many intelligence operatives work for America inside Pakistan? …There are around 3,000 [three thousand] intelligence operatives helping Americans collect information.”http://www.rediff.com/news/special/if-america-kept-pakistan-in-the-dark-on-osama-their-ties-will-end-says-as-dulat/20110505.htm .
This indicates the depth of US intelligence coverage of Pakistan is rather comprehensive. Also making it probable that there was extensive US contact with some (or many) Pakistani intelligence officers. This wide coverage of Pakistan (not to mention sigint) is one reason why the US would very likely been well aware where bin Laden was imprisoned from late 2005. The late 2005 timing is in line with accounts given by his wives, Abbottabad neighbours and US "before and after" satellite imagery - see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osama_bin_Laden%27s_Abbottabad_compound#History.
So why did his imprisonment/house arrest occur from late 2005 and not before? That year marked a mixed AQ-homegrown bombing of the London transport system on July 7, 2005 (now known as "7/7"). The British would have stated loud and clear to the US and Pakistan that Britain was unhappy that bin Laden was still at large and still effective. 7/7 may have been a (or the) major reason for bin Laden being finally placed in secure and permanent house arrest in late 2005.
Given close contact between some senior Pakistani intelligence officers and bin Laden since the 1980s it is highly likely that Pakistan would continue to keep track of him - especially after 9/11, after 7/7 and especially when he was living in Pakistan. Construction of the unusually large Abbottabad compound in that military suburb-base could not have occurred without the knowledge of Pakistan military intelligence (ISI) and security intelligence the (Intelligence Bureau (IB)). IB had/has a particularly close relationship with Pakistan's leadership - to an extent as a balance against ISI's power.
From 2005 bin Laden was in most respects a prisoner under house arrest behind the high walls of the compound in Abbottabad. Regarding the Pakistan - US security and political principle of house arrest, there were some significant parallels with the house arrest of another famous figure, A Q Khan http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-brink-of-war-unstable-pakistan-has-us-on-edge-a-732110.html . A Q Khan's house arrest occurred under sustained US pressure - pressure that was also applied to the international compromise on bin Laden's future.
From 2005 bin Laden was in most respects a prisoner under house arrest behind the high walls of the compound in Abbottabad. Regarding the Pakistan - US security and political principle of house arrest, there were some significant parallels with the house arrest of another famous figure, A Q Khan http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-brink-of-war-unstable-pakistan-has-us-on-edge-a-732110.html . A Q Khan's house arrest occurred under sustained US pressure - pressure that was also applied to the international compromise on bin Laden's future.
While bin Laden was living in Abbottabad from 2005 al Qaeda communications in the Abbottabad area, bin Laden's laptop use and written messages would have been monitored by Pakistan and later also by the US. It is notable that Abbottabad was the site of a major British signals intercept base during WWII. This makes it quite possible that Pakistan maintained/maintains legacy intercept facilities in Abbottabad as it was/is apparently an advantageous interception site. Such facilities may be within the Military Academy grounds a short distance from where the (now removed) Abbottabad compound stood. Certainly bin Laden would have been monitored from the Observation Post set up in a house near the Abbottabad compound – not from 2010 but from 2005.
It is significant that in 2002 President Bush wanted bin Laden "dead or alive" but by 2006 Bush was saying "capturing bin Laden is “not a top priority use of American resources.”". This again supports my contention that Bush no longer saw finding bin Laden was a top priority because Bush knew, since 2005, where bin Laden was (in Abbottabad) and that bin Laden was safely locked up there. In line with the above The New York Times and in turn The Washington Post reported that the CIA paramilitary unit dedicated to capturing bin Laden was shut down by the Bush Administration in late 2005. My inference is that the decision to shut down this Find bin Laden Unit was made because, by late 2005, the US knew where bin Laden was - safely under house arrest in Abbottabad.
Bin Laden would have been conscious of the likelihood that Pakistan was intercepting messages to and from the rest of al Qaeda. As a man of the world he would have expected that Pakistan was passing most or all of these messages to American intelligence.
It is no coincidence that this passage of al Qaeda information to American intelligence helped the West to head off all major al Qaeda attacks on Western countries from late 2005.
This is not meant to be a criticism of the US or Pakistan. In fact if it is accurate it was an excellent intelligence gathering operation which also had a covert action component, that is the disruption of the al Qaeda grouping for five and a half years.
It must be remembered that bin Laden valued his own life and his immediate family's (including the wives and children who stayed with him in Abbottabad). The Bin Laden wives progress to and from Abbotabad would have been track by numerous agencies - they were persons of extreme interest. When he was arrested in 2005 he realised he was living on borrowed time - that his death sentence had been postponed by the US and Pakistan. Bin Laden would not have been surprised that the US would carry out its revenge/justice for the 3,000 deaths of 9/11 on his hands.
The postponment was due to the US and Pakistan's realisation that bin Laden was of more use being kept quietly alive up to 2011 rather than killing him before that. The US wanted him alive while they could gain vital intelligence from him. The US also relied on the disruptive effects of having the increasingly isolated, hence increasingly ineffectual, head of al Qaeda under house arrest.
Senior figures in Pakistani intelligence as well as the peak Pakistani leadership would have been politically embarrassed if it was known that bin Laden, who was admired by many In Pakistan, was locked up in their country. Following the execute bin Laden operation, in early May 2011, US criticism of Pakistan (and Pakistani criticism of the US) should be seen as overt posturing required to obscure the reality of US-Pakistani cooperation.
While officially Saudi Arabia had shunned bin Laden he was actually held in high esteem by many Saudis who were impressed with his pious anti-Western (anti "infidel") stand. Within Saudi Arabia the handful of officials in the know wanted bin Laden kept alive. He was admired by many in Saudi Arabia especially within the extensive bin Laden clan, which is very influential in Saudi Arabia.
By early 2011 bin Laden's al Qaeda subordinates, who were aware of his house arrest, would have become increasingly suspicious and demoralised the longer he remained immobile in Abbottabad. They would have communicated with him less and relied on him less. With this decline bin Laden's intelligence value to the US and Pakistan of keeping him alive also declined.
However the political value, to President Obama, of “finding” and having bin Laden executed on Obama’s watch would have increased. The execution of bin Laden cemented the image Obama sought of being seen as tough and effective on terrorism. President Obama also sought and seeks to expunge any perception among US voters that he has any Islamic leanings that stem from his Muslim name, Barack Hussein Obama.
However unpalatable President Obama's need to capitalise on bin Laden's death President Obama's performance is vastly better than his predecessor, Bush, who manufactured the need to invade Iraq which in turn made life hell, maimed or final for thousands of US servicemen who trusted Bush.
By early 2011 Saudi Arabia (occupied with internal political tension generated by the Arab Spring http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_spring#Saudi_Arabia ) would have been in a weakened political position to push that bin Laden be kept alive.
Pakistan's leadership could not (and still can’t) admit that Pakistan was cooperating with the US in keeping bin Laden under house arrest for so long. This was partially due to the respect for bin Laden amongst many in Pakistan. Bin Laden represented so many things important to them, including his religious piety and as a type of Caliphate nationalist leader prepared to stand up against what he saw as a West seeking to dominate the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
It is hoped that this alternate narrative is more plausible than the official American story that the US (with its extensive intelligence assets) was simply ignorant about where bin Laden was from late December 2001 to late 2010.
So this is not another anti-American theory. Despite criticism all credit to the Pakistani leaders, Pakistani intelligence, President Bush, President Obama and American intelligence for keeping this excellent intelligence operation so secret for so long. To any who doubt that such a major intelligence operation can be kept secret for so long it is suggested they look into the history of the highly successful World War Two Anglo - American, Ultra - Enigma - Purple Operation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra_secret#Post-war_disclosures .
The result of this six year joint Pakistani-US Operation "House Arrest” was that the intelligence gathered and disruption inflicted helped to prevent al Qaeda from carrying out any major terrorist acts in Western countries from late to 2005 to the present day.
The articles also went international, see The (UK) Examiner, July 10, 2012, on an additional aspect, how much did former Pakistani President Musharraf know (?), http://www.examiner.com/article/did-pervez-musharraf-knew-where-bin-laden-was-hiding-pakistan .
Also on the Western press angle: there is an new industry of US journalists, in DC and NYC, who are sycophanticly writing "we were there" stories about how bin Laden was found in 2010 according to enterprizing SOCOM/CIA/those "in the know" types. These hacks are being fed lines by feds and notably this side of Obama's "I got bin Laden" November reelection. The US never lost its intensive Intel coverage of the "terrorists in Pakistan target" just as the US has never taken its eye off the "loose nukes in Pakistan target". If you pay Pollyanna http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollyanna_principle journalists enough they will perpetuate the safe Administration version of how the US managed (especially Bush 2005) to magicly NOT want the Most Wanted man on Earth.
Pete