Russian Metrojet Flight 9268 crashed (cause unknown) while enroute from the Egyptian coastal resort airport at Sharm el-Sheikh to St. Petersburg, Russia, on October 31, 2015. 224 people were killed.
The jet apparently exploded higher than 30,000 feet - too high to be shot down by a small man portable missile MANPAD of the type that may be available to terrorists. A larger, higher altitude, truck mounted missile is unlikely as the heat plume, as such a missile rose up, could be detected by the many satellites focussing on the region. Also experts assume terrorist organisations don't have the ability to use large ungainly, difficult to operate missiles. So - a bomb on board?
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Sharm El Sheikh Airport, Egypt (looking rudimentary security-wise) where the Russian airliner took off.
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So how would a Russian security official in the employ of President for Life, Putin report on the crash of Russian airliner Flight 9268?
Even though ISIS (aka IS or ISIL etc) has claimed that it destroyed the plane it is important not to link the crash with Russia's new military venture against ISIS in Syria. There cannot be any contradiction with semi-official Russian news agencies like RT that are spreading the word that it wasn't terrorists.
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Western governments are increasingly coming to the conclusion that a bomb destroyed the plane: "The Americans seem to have reached this conclusion based on intercepted communications messages from the Sinai region."
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On Putin's orders the Russian security official may well highlight the possibility that any bomb was due to the ongoing Islamic threat to Russia from Russia's client states in the Northern Caucasus. Caucasian Muslims, particularly from Chechnya and Dagestan, have long been designated the major terrorist threat to Russia. The advantage of saying "it might be the constant Caucasian terrorist threat" is that Putin can reduce and deflect any perception that it is Islamic terrorism reacting to Russia's new "boots on the ground" involvement in Syria.
Westerners can identify with Russian concerns given conditions in the Northern Caucasus were a formative influence on the Tsarnaev brothers who committed the Boston Marathon bombings in April 2013.
Typically Russian security reacts to a possible Northern Caucasus terrorist bombing by organising an operation against Caucasian radicals, killing some in a shootout (to symbolise revenge) and perhaps finding evidence. See Suspected Volgograd suicide bombings mastermind killed in shootout, in 2014.
Through delay, vagueness and the hint that it is ongoing Caucasian terrorism a Russian foreign policy error and Putin's decision-making are thus saved from criticism by ordinary Russians.
Egyptian soldiers collecting personal belongings, into body bags, at the crash site (Photo courtesy Associated Press via Huffington Post)
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The Russian official may be concerned about security standards at secondary Egyptian airports like Sharm el-Sheikh where the Russian airliner took off. The Russian may be concerned that baggage handlers, security gate and customs officers etc may be lax, or the possibility that they are security threats. Only a small minority might be sufficient to facilitate a bomb. That small minority may become significant given Egypt has almost 80 million Sunni Muslims. As ISIS is also very Islamic and overtly Sunni a significant minority of Egyptians might be susceptible to ISIS persuasion.
Unlike countries of the Middle East that have oil, Egypt is not wealthy enough to have all the high tech security equipment and experienced security advisers. Egypt's capital Cairo Airport would have much high tech equipment but less so secondary airports like Sharm el-Sheikh.
Western governments are increasingly coming to the conclusion that a bomb destroyed the plane: "The Americans seem to have reached this conclusion based on intercepted communications messages from the Sinai region."
An Airbus A321 in Metrojet colours - identical to the Russian jet that crashed.
On Putin's orders the Russian security official may well highlight the possibility that any bomb was due to the ongoing Islamic threat to Russia from Russia's client states in the Northern Caucasus. Caucasian Muslims, particularly from Chechnya and Dagestan, have long been designated the major terrorist threat to Russia. The advantage of saying "it might be the constant Caucasian terrorist threat" is that Putin can reduce and deflect any perception that it is Islamic terrorism reacting to Russia's new "boots on the ground" involvement in Syria.
Westerners can identify with Russian concerns given conditions in the Northern Caucasus were a formative influence on the Tsarnaev brothers who committed the Boston Marathon bombings in April 2013.
Typically Russian security reacts to a possible Northern Caucasus terrorist bombing by organising an operation against Caucasian radicals, killing some in a shootout (to symbolise revenge) and perhaps finding evidence. See Suspected Volgograd suicide bombings mastermind killed in shootout, in 2014.
Through delay, vagueness and the hint that it is ongoing Caucasian terrorism a Russian foreign policy error and Putin's decision-making are thus saved from criticism by ordinary Russians.
If it was terrorism and a bomb the Russian security official might consider questioning the risks of continued Russian participation in Iraq and Syria, but he will probably remain mute.
Remains of an engine from the crashed Russian airliner (Photo courtesy Maxim Grigoryev/TASS)
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Passenger waiting at Sharm el-Sheikh airport. Perhaps 20,000 British stranded in Egypt will be evacuated by the UK Royal Air Force from November 6, 2015 (Photo and evacuation tip courtesy BBC via Huffington Post)
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Passenger waiting at Sharm el-Sheikh airport. Perhaps 20,000 British stranded in Egypt will be evacuated by the UK Royal Air Force from November 6, 2015 (Photo and evacuation tip courtesy BBC via Huffington Post)
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Pete