Prime Minister Turnbull met Prime Minister Abe at the G20 in Turkey, mid November 2015 (above). They are meeting again tomorrow, December 18, 2015. (Photo courtesy AAP via Australia's SBS News).
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Turnbull visiting Abe in Tokyo, December 18.
As expected in Submarine Matters post of December 6, 2015 Australia's Prime Minister Turnbull is meeting Prime Minister Abe in Tokyo on December 18. Abe will be promoting the Japanese submarine, of course. The China problem will also be discussed.
As well as talks in Tokyo Turnbull (or members of his staff) may visit the MHI and KHI Soryu submarine building yards in Kobe, Japan.
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Defence Minister Payne (red-orange top) next to Japan's Defence Minister Nakatani at the 2 + 2 talks, November 22, 2015. In front is Foreign Minister Bishop (white top) next to Japanese Foreign Minister Kishida. (Photo courtesy The Australian).
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Insider Briefing, Adelaide, December 17
Meanwhile, in Adelaide, December 17, Defence Minister Marise Payne indicated/implied to industry insiders that the 2016 Defence White Paper, which will frame many submarine issues, will be released in early 2016. No submarine contender is likely to be chosen until after the 2016 Australian Federal Elections. The Turnbull Government would lose votes if it indicated which States or electorates would Not be involved in the submarine build. So instead the Government can imply, before the Election that all may benefit. The hard decisions of saying which contender wins (which in turn favours the Australian companies the contender has formed alliances with) are best made after the Election.
In Australia elections typically fall in the Southern Hemisphere Spring (the weather is warm and people positive). The most popular month is September - see Background on Next Australian Federal Election. Turnbull is a popular leader, whose Liberal National Party Coalition is very likely to hang on to power.
South Australia seems the most expectant and sensitive State on this issue. Hence all three contenders have rolled out promises that they will make Adelaide a submarine building and maintenance hub. After the Elections the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) a small submarine fixated party from South Australia, may become more powerful, at the expense of the Turnbull Government.
It was easy to pick Japan as the winning contender when Abbott ruled, but under Turnbull the winner is a well kept secret. Either that or the Australian Government (and the US) have simply not decided yet.
Pete