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French versus Japanese Competition on Australian Submarine Pricing

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Toulon, the French Navy's main base. Homeport of many DCNS products including: current nuclear carrier Charles de Gaulle, DCNS (and partners) built FREMM (multi-mission) frigates, Rubis SSNs and the future Barracuda SSN, (Map-diagram courtesy scoop)
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French naval bases and Headquarters in metropolitan France (2015). On the northwest coast is Cherbourg (where (all?) French Navy submarines are built) and Toulon Naval Base is in the south, on France's Mediterranean coast. (Map courtesy wikipedia French Navy entry).
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In Submarine Matters S is providing good comments on the Japanese approach to the sale of a future submarine to Australian. There has been some German information, particularly from MHalblaub, and it should not be forgotten that the Prime Minister’s wife, Lucy Turnbull, AO, remains President of the German-Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

However there has been little information about France DCNS’ place in the competition. To that end Commentson January 24, 2016 from KQN are very informative, as follows. [Pete has added some links and some bolding]:

“On the US combat management system, pricing will depend on how the deal is structured. It is possible for Australia to get the same price that the USN is paying. That will be the floor price since the US will not discount beyond that. 

Japan is jump starting an export defence business, so I bet it will be aggressive on pricing. It cannot afford to lose its 1st deal which happens to be a mega deal. After all to grow a business, you need to take on some debt. Japan will still benefit since after all, with or without Australia, it is investing into LIB Soryu 2. If it can get Australia to tag on, things will look better on the balance sheet.

Price wise, I would watch out on DCNS if I am Japan. DCNS is a state owned enterprise so you can never be sure what cost of money the French state will use on this business case (besides the EU is flooding financial markets with cheap money). State owned means government employees and that means without this deal, they are still on payrolls. And then the whole economy is bad, with near 11% unemploymemt.

If [the submarine] deal closes at the end of 2016, it gets dicy for the French government. April 2017 is election in France. [President of France] Mr Hollande may deem this a must win so he can get re-elected. Still France is a bit stuck on pricing as they cannot afford to fuss up Malaysia [which bought 2 Scorpene subs] with a low pricing here. France needs Malaysia to buy their [Dassault Rafale jet fighters]. To the extent that [France can leverage the Shortfin] from the Barracuda investment. France can also leverage this to lower its price just as Japan [leverages the Australian Super Soryu from the LIB Soryu Mark 2 investment].

TKMS in my view is the one that gets cornered on pricing. They cannot low ball so much to make the Koreans [with 209 and 214 derivatives] and Singaporeans [218s] mad, just in Asia alone. The German economy is out performing, there is full employment so this deal may not be so critical?

KQN and Pete

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