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Russia hopes that it could develop the 4th generation Lada class have been discontinued mainly because Russia has been unable to develop satisfactory air independent propulsion (AIP) technology for the Lada. See January 2016 reports from Russia.
At the root of the problem is lack of Russian research-building financial and labour resources for AIP. This has made the Lada and related export Amur class, uncompetitive. This is compared to AIP equipped submarines from Germany, France, Sweden, South Korea, China and Japan.
At the root of the problem is lack of Russian research-building financial and labour resources for AIP. This has made the Lada and related export Amur class, uncompetitive. This is compared to AIP equipped submarines from Germany, France, Sweden, South Korea, China and Japan.
Prospective Amur customers have probably been offered the existing Improved Kilo (636) class instead. This is assuming customers would not accept a Russian offer of a future "fifth generation" Kalina class SSK (more on the Kalina below) with the Kalinas only likely to be operational (with AIP) in the Russian Navy in the mid 2020s.
Customers, including the Russian Navy and some foreign customer navies have waited 15 years for Russia to develop an AIP. But Russia has devoted much effort into making up submarine development and construction time lost in the early 1990s - early 2000s. In early 1990s - early 2000s the disruption of the Soviet Union falling apart meant low defence budget flowing through to unfinished submarine builds and loss of expert labour for submarine building and research. The catchup process since 2010 has mainly focussed on creating two new nuclear submarine classes:
- the Borei class (aka Borey, Project 955) SSBN, and
- the Yasen class (Project 885) SSGN or "multi-purpose" SSN
These nuclear submarine development and construction projects have come at the expense of creating AIP for a whole new Lada/Amur class SSK. Russia's main conventional and nuclear submarine designer, the Rubin Design Institute (see left sidebar in Rubin's website) has been over-extended with all its submarine projects. This is in the context of defence budget shortfalls brought on by:
- Western economic sanctions in response to Russia's ventures in Crimea and in eastern Ukraine.
- Russia’s increasingly threatening posture in the Baltic. This reduces the likelihood that Baltic countries that invented the most modern AIP would supply AIP technology and designs to Russia. This includes Germany (fuel cell AIP) and Sweden (building new advanced versions of Stirling AIP).
- more importantly low world oil prices have led to low oil revenue for the Russian Treasury and hence less revenue to fund increasingly ambitious defence programs, and
- expensive defence programs particularly include Russia interventions in eastern Ukraine and in Syria.
Lack of foreign orders for Russian SSKs (other than 6 Kilos for Vietnam (almost finished) and 1 Amur for Morocco (in limbo)) has also led to a lack of money to fund Russian AIP and a new Lada/Amur class.
As Russia has been unable to develop AIP for submarines, mainly Russian Navy media releases, has artificially created "progress" by naming two further generations of submarines (fourth and fifth) to replace its last actual submarine generation - the Kilo "third generation".
Fourth generation Lada/Amurs are now out so a sort of Five Year Plan to build the "fifth-generation" Kalina has been declared. Customary face saving and denial has been part of the declaration process.
The Kalina Future - LIBs?
The Kalina Project may take until the early 2020s to launch an AIP Kalina and until the mid-2020s to fully test and commission it.
It is significant that until then the Russian Navy has ordered six additional Improved Kilo class (636.3) submarines for its Pacific Fleet. It is possible the six may be retrofitted with Russian AIP once AIP is developed.
Given China’s earlier interest in buying four Ladas China may be the first customer for Kalina Class submarines.
Russia would realise China would reverse engineer some features of the AIP and other advanced Russian submarine features. But Russia needs the foreign exchange from the export submarine business and Russia may want to further deepen its alliance position with China.
Alternatively Russia may be able to develop (through research and intelligence collection) Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) for Kalina submarines. This may make an AIP step unnecessary. Russia may develop LIB technology jointly with China or receive LIB technology from China. China may already have a deep enough espionage network in place in Japan and South Korea (maybe also France and Germany?) to collect substantial LIB secrets.
BACKGROUND - RUSSIA's FIVE CONVENTIONAL SUBMARINE GENERATIONS
Fourth generation Lada/Amurs are now out so a sort of Five Year Plan to build the "fifth-generation" Kalina has been declared. Customary face saving and denial has been part of the declaration process.
The Kalina Future - LIBs?
The Kalina Project may take until the early 2020s to launch an AIP Kalina and until the mid-2020s to fully test and commission it.
It is significant that until then the Russian Navy has ordered six additional Improved Kilo class (636.3) submarines for its Pacific Fleet. It is possible the six may be retrofitted with Russian AIP once AIP is developed.
Given China’s earlier interest in buying four Ladas China may be the first customer for Kalina Class submarines.
Russia would realise China would reverse engineer some features of the AIP and other advanced Russian submarine features. But Russia needs the foreign exchange from the export submarine business and Russia may want to further deepen its alliance position with China.
Alternatively Russia may be able to develop (through research and intelligence collection) Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) for Kalina submarines. This may make an AIP step unnecessary. Russia may develop LIB technology jointly with China or receive LIB technology from China. China may already have a deep enough espionage network in place in Japan and South Korea (maybe also France and Germany?) to collect substantial LIB secrets.
BACKGROUND - RUSSIA's FIVE CONVENTIONAL SUBMARINE GENERATIONS
In information on Russia’s Rubin Design Bureau website – at http://www.ckb-rubin.ru/en/projects/naval_engineering/conventional_submarines/ Russia’s post World War evolution of conventional diesel-electric submarines includes five generations:
First Generation - Whiskey Class (Project 613, 236! built), Zulu Class (Project 611, 26 built) and Foxtrot Class (Project 641, 74 built) - all heavily influenced by the most advanced World War Two German submarines.
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Second Generation – the ocean going Tango Class (Project 641B, 18 built). Arguably an evolution of late model Foxtrots and/or Zulus.
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Third Generation – Kilo Class (Project 877 and Improved 636, a total 57 built so far for both classes). The first Kilo (of the Project 877 series) was commissioned into the Soviet Navy in 1980. Production of the early Kilo (Project 877s) began in 1980 and continued until 1999. Upgrades, particularly adding Club missile capability continue. Production of the first Improved Kilo (of the Project 636 series) began in 1996. Production of six new 636.3s (for the Russian Navy) will begin in 2016 for likely completion of the six in the early 2020s. Russia like other customers would have preferred to have AIP as an option.
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Fourth Generation – Lada Class discontinued (Project 677) – was to be export marketed as the Amur 1650 and smaller Amur 950. The first of the Lada Class, was the St. Petersburg (lets call it L1) entered sea trials in 2004 but was unsuccessful due to no mature AIP and broader diesel-electric propulsion problems. L1's displacement, at 1,800 tons (surfaced) is 25% smaller than submarines of the preceding Kilo Class. Significantly two other submarines in the Lada Class (lets call them L2 and L3) have not yet been completed.
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Fifth Generation – future Kalina Class (the future first of class can be called Kalina 1). Likely to look like the Lada. Kalina 1 may be ready for trials after 2020 fitted with Russian AIP (when developed) or Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs).
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- Russian SSK Development - Kalina Class Awaiting Any AIP, April 4, 2014 http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2014/04/russian-conventional-submarine.html
- Russian Submarine Development, Rubin Designer’s Views, January 23, 2014 http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/russian-submarine-development-rubin.html
- China’s Yuan Class Submarine Related to Russia’s Kilo and Possibly Lada Classes, April 7, 2012, http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2010/09/chinas-yuan-class-submarine-related-to.html and
- National Interest's 5 Most Lethal Russian Submarines, July 11, 2015.
Pete
- National Interest's 5 Most Lethal Russian Submarines, July 11, 2015.
Pete