Australia's Defence Minister, Marise Payne, working quietly on the 2016 Defence White Paper and on the Submarine Winner Decision. (Photo courtesy AAP)
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David Wroe in the Sydney Morning Herald (SMH), February 9, 2016, reports http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-leaning-towards-fullstrength-fleet-of-12-submarines-20160209-gmpiel.html:
"The Turnbull government is leaning strongly towards building a full-strength fleet of 12 submarines rather than the reduced fleet of eight boats the Coalition was previously considering.
...But it is understood that given the advantages of creating a large and permanent submarine workforce, the need to honour the Abbott-era promise and the strategic uncertainty Australia faces in the Asia-Pacific region in the decades to come, the Turnbull government is inclined to commit to the full 12 boats in the revamped white paper.
That major defence statement, which will lay out the nation's security plans for the next decade, is [Defence White Paper] due to be released next month.
COMMENT
I would say Australia will end up with 8 x Japanese designed subs, but with an option (never taken up) of 4 more. We are working with such long lead times that long terrm government promises made in 2016 count as nothing in 2026.
A promise of "12" amounts to a good "continuous build" political promise in Adelaide.
A promise of "12" amounts to a good "continuous build" political promise in Adelaide.
Australia's ongoing struggles to find sufficient submarine commanders and crew for even 2 (of 6) submarines available for action at any one time certainly mitigates against making 12 submarines a viable and economical number.
Pete
Pete