Turnbull's main target is beating Labor in the Election, not announcing the winning contender.
Cartoon by Valdman for the (Adelaide) Advertiser, April 7, 2016
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Prime Minister Turnbull's main pre-Election concern is, unsurprisingly, to win votes in South Australia and other shipbuilding States. Turnbull needs to head off submarine build uncertainty which the Labor opposition in South Australia and nationally, is exploiting.
Turnbull's "submarine announcement" might be restricted to saying, his Government has decided that:
1. all 12 submarines will be built in Australia
2. with final assembly in South Australia (but Turnbull may not risk saying "ASC")
3. BUT with significant work (undefined) from the other Shipbuilding States/Territories which just happens to be ALL other States/Territories
[Turnbull won't be saying the descending order of work in other States/Territories, which may possibly be:
- Western Australia (especially Civmec)
- NSW (maybe mostly at Tomago, maybe steel from Wollongong)
- Victoria (Williamstown)
- ACT (DoD, RAN, uniformed, officials, politicians, their staffs, many public servants, white collar consultants and some electronic component offsets)]
- Tasmania
- Queensland
- Northern Territory (port upgrades in Darwin)
As any building decisions only need to be set in stone by 2026 Turnbull (who probably won't be PM in 2026) has a lot of wriggle room. The first of the new subs will, after all, only be launched in 2031 and commissioned in 2033. This is noting the mid-life upgraded Collins class will operate into the 2030s.
No announcement as to the actual winning COUNTRY/company contenders necessarily needs to be made until after the Election.The winning contender announcement is less political if all contenders will be said to build all subs in Australia anyway.
Meanwhile Industry Minister Pyne (from South Australia) will say this is a huge win for (normally Labor voting workers in) South Australia.
Noting that Twitters of Tweets don't make it to Submarine Matters but alerting to an article link is appreciated :) over the last 6 hours Pyne continues to talk to AAP/9News and in that same article Labor Leader Bill Shorten points to Turnbull's political vulnerability on submarines
Noting that Twitters of Tweets don't make it to Submarine Matters but alerting to an article link is appreciated :) over the last 6 hours Pyne continues to talk to AAP/9News and in that same article Labor Leader Bill Shorten points to Turnbull's political vulnerability on submarines
As no final WHERE TO BUILD decision needs to be made until 2026 everyone is happy.
Note that where-ever a submarine is built subs are only put together from parts overwelmingly made in the winning contender's country - anyway.
Like any 2016 Election Promise a decision by a new-different Government in the early 2020s may be totally different. Such a 2020s Government may well decide to have the first one or two submarines built in Japan, Germany or France.
But six to ten then built in Australia will be in the Collins tradition.
Pete