This, to scale diagram, permit comparison between the US Ohio and Chinese "Jin class" Type 094 SSBNs. Diagram courtesy China Power (an interesting source in itself on China's SSBNs).
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COMMENT
China's SSBNs are only effective through their missiles, SLBMs. The latest developed missile, the JL-2, suffers from inadequate range (perhaps 8,000 km with a light payload - one 500 kg warhead). The main inadequacy is the inability, from "bastion waters" (protected by Chinese defence forces) to hit targets in the continental US.
China also lacks the opportunities to fully test (with sufficient secrecy) the JL-2 over its full, estimated 8,000 km range. China lacks Russia's long national length and the US's California to distant Pacific testing range facilities.
Lack of full range testing also prevents the JL-2 being tested for accuracy, as measured by CEP. Lack of CEP assurance denies China knowledge of whether its missiles can destroy enemy missiles in their silos. Computer modelling provides only partial assurance.
As illustrated below the USN and Pentagon appear to continually over-estimate the operational numbers, maturity and capabilities of Chinese SSBNs and SLBMs. Perhaps justification of a high tempo building program for US SSNs and SSBNs comes into this.
It is relevant that the total number of very likely inferior JL-2s mounted by China's four known Type 094s (Jin class) is 48. In comparison only two of the USN's superior Ohio class SSBNs are needed to mount a total of 48 (superior) Trident II D5s.
ARTICLE
"Submarines and sea-based missiles
China has built two types of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), the JL-1 and JL-2, which were developed for two types of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines.
The 1,700-km-range, two-stage JL-1 (CSS-NX-3) SLBM developed for a single old Xia-class (Type 092) submarine first entered service in 1986 and is not considered operational. The Xia is based at the North Sea Fleet base near Qingdao in the Shandong province. The submarine underwent a lengthy shipyard overhaul in 2005 and 2006 but appears to have stayed in port since then. The Xia/JL-1 weapon system is expected to be retired soon.
Development of the new JL-2 (CSS-NX-14) SLBM for the second-generation Jin-class (Type 094) submarine is nearing completion. The US intelligence community has predicted for several years that the missile was about to become operational, only to see further delays. After several setbacks, China appears to have overcome technical difficulties and successfully test-launched the JL-2 in 2013.
The JL-2 is a modified version of the DF-31. Equipped with a single warhead and possibly penetration aids, the JL-2 has never been flight tested to its full range but is estimated to have a range of 7,000-plus km. The 2015 Pentagon report estimates the range as 7,400?km (Defense Department, 2015: 10). Such a range is sufficient to target Alaska, Guam, Russia, and India from waters near China—but, unless the submarine carrying the weapon sails significantly eastward, not the continental United States.
Four Jin-class submarines are operational (without missiles) and all homeported at the South Sea Fleet base on Hainan Island, according to the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) (Office of Naval Intelligence, 2015: 20). There is some uncertainty about how many nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) China plans to build. The ONI predicted nearly a decade ago that China might build five Jin SSBNs (Kristensen, 2007 12). That projection was repeated in 2013 when ONI estimated that there would be four to five boats by 2020 (Kristensen, 2014b 17). The 2015 Pentagon report appears to agree with that projection, saying “up to five may enter service” before China begins work on a next-generation SSBN (Defense Department, 2015 10).
Yet in early 2015 other government sources began suggesting that China might produce more Jin SSBNs. In his prepared testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee in February 2015, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said that China “might produce additional JIN-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines” (Clapper, 2015 6). And in April 2015 Admiral Samuel J. Locklear, commander of US Pacific Command, told the same committee that “up to five more [Jin SSBNs] may enter service by the end of the decade” for a total of eight Jin submarines (Locklear, 2015 19).
The reason there are different estimates of how many Jin-class SSBNs China plans to build is unclear. The higher number seems strange given that China is already expected to proceed to development and production of a third-generation (Type 096) SSBN over the next decade.
With 12 missile-launch tubes per submarine, four operational Jin SSBNs could carry 48 missiles with as many warheads—a significant increase from the 12 SLBMs that the sole Xia-class submarine was equipped with.
The Pentagon asserts that the Jin/JL-2 weapon system “will give the PLA [Chinese] Navy its first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent” (Defense Department, 2013 9). Yet the Chinese SSBN fleet faces several doctrinal, technical, and operational constraints. Under current doctrine, China’s Central Military Commission does not allow the military services to have warheads deployed on missiles under normal circumstances. Handing over custody of nuclear warheads to deployed submarines in peacetime would constitute a significant change of Chinese doctrine.
Moreover, no Chinese ballistic missile submarine has ever sailed on a deterrent patrol so China’s navy and the Central Military Commission have essentially no experience in operating a submarine force during realistic military operations. Developing this capability will require development of new command and control technologies and procedures.
But even if China deployed warheads on the SSBNs and sent them to sea in a crisis, where would they sail? For a JL-2 to reach the continental United States, for example, a Jin SSBN would have to sail through the East China Sea and well into the Pacific Ocean, through dangerous choke points where it would be vulnerable to hostile antisubmarine warfare5(see Map below).
Figure 1. Potential Julang-2 SLBM launch areas for targeting continental United States
The map indicates why (with the JL-2s limited range) Type 094 "Jin" SSBN need to dangerously sail east away from Chinese protected "bastion" waters of the "South Sea Base" (South China Sea) or from the "North Sea Base" Yellow-Bohai Seas.
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China’s main concern is making sure that its minimum nuclear deterrent would survive a first strike, and for that reason it spends considerable resources on modernizing and hiding its land-based missiles. This makes its submarine program puzzling, for it is much riskier to deploy nuclear weapons at sea, where submarines can be sunk by unfriendly forces, than to hide them in caves or forests deep inside China’s extensive territory (Kristensen, 2014a 16)."
See the whole article Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris Chinese nuclear forces, 2015 (July 2, 2015).
See the whole article Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris Chinese nuclear forces, 2015 (July 2, 2015).