Democratic ASEAN did so well reining in the Philippines'own Marcos and Indonesia's Suharto that the Philippines'New President Duterte should be a cinch.
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As readers will have noticed Submarine Matters covers more than just submarines. Broader East Asian issues often come up.
Filipinos seemed to know what they were in for when they voted in Duterte as President in May 2016. Duterte was already infamous for his Davao Death Squad henchmen. He has a largely impenetrable accent matched by Trump-like, shock jock charm. So he must be a bit of a star, right? Maybe not.
The beginnings of a human rights failure in a key South China Sea state prompt strategic concerns. During the Marcos years the US could backup Marcos's power, but the US no longer enjoys such relative power. However the US may find itself pole-axed by Duterte's special brand of diplomacy.
If the excesses of a dictator causes popular reactions then the Philippines may unfortunately entertain a PRC puppet master. First economic power (by a narrow margin China is now the Philippines'third highest trade partner). Money builds political influence.
China taking over Subic Bay and Clark military facilities by 2040? Who knows? Certainly some try to insist things never change.
In that regard it is encouraging that ASEAN has a plan to investigate matters in the Philippines. The habit of non-interference concerning abuse of power, including death squads, would be so much more convenient. As abuse of power becomes dictatorship then legitimacy is lost. Radical change then unfortunately (or fortunately in the case of People Power) may happen.
"More than 400 suspected drug dealers have been killed by police across the Philippines since Mr Duterte took over [a few weeks ago], officials say" http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-08/philippine-officials-surrender-after-being-linked-to-drugs-trade/7702758
Britain’s Daily Mail advises“60,000 people turn themselves in to authorities in the Philippines after the president tells citizens to'go ahead and kill' drug users”... “At least 43,000 alleged drug traffickers have been 'neutralised"' whatever that means.
“[Duterte] vowed on one occasion during the election campaign that 100,000 people would die, and so many bodies would be dumped in Manila Bay that the fish there would grow fat from feeding on them, according to the South China Morning Post.”
Certainly a vision statement not to be emulated. But Suharto succeeded in his own violent rise to power. But as in 1965 the use of death squads to secure power is a bad look for any respectable member of ASEAN. ASEAN has just managed to lift Burma from dictatorship but now the Philippines appears to be slipping in to it.
Despite shared Spanish influences the Philippines is not Argentina on a bad day Mr Duterte.
Despite shared Spanish influences the Philippines is not Argentina on a bad day Mr Duterte.