COMMENT
Over the last 24 hours Philippine President Duterte has exceeded even Trump's best brainstorms by inviting Chinese ships to patrol the Philippines southern shared seas against pirate, Islamist and separatist activities. Major problems with Duterte's invitation include:
- Chinese patrols would also be close to, or in, Malaysian and Indonesian claimed waters in the still
unnegotiated Tri-border area.
- Duterte's invitation to China may therefore increase regional (territorial and oil claim) tensions
between the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia and with China.
- any Chinese ships patrolling would act as a potential wedge-threat against Australian shipping
lane trade and strategic connections with southeast and northeast Asia.
- even though only Chinese Coast Guard vessels might do the patrolling. The long range "Coast
Guard" ships are armed and weigh up to 12,000 tons like destroyer-cruisers (see photo below).
- Where the Chinese Coast Guard goes the Chinese Navy (PLAN) may back it up and follow it.
- Chinese Coast Guard aircraft, based in the region, may be next.
- Duterte's invitation comes at a bad time of rapidly decreasing US international and Asia-Pacific
regional popularity triggered by Trump.
Dutertes February 2017 suggestion basically invites China to patrol seas in the still unnegotiated "Tri-border area". This includes seas the Philippines shares with Malaysia (Sulu Sea) and with Indonesia (Celebes Sea) (Map above courtesy Stratfor).
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ARTICLE
“China ‘likely to agree to Duterte’s request for anti-piracy patrols”
...China is likely to agree to Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte’s request to sending sea patrols to help stop growing crime by Islamist militants along the southern coast of the Philippines.
Duterte said earlier in a speech to newly promoted Filipino generals that he had asked China to “patrol the international waters without necessarily intruding into the territorial waters of countries” in the southern waters of the island country in response to abducting sailors and attacking vessels in waters off the southern Philippines.
...Zhu Xin, associate professor at Beijing’s University of International Relations, believed China would again make a supportive gesture by agreeing to Duterte’s request.
“It is obvious that China feels positive about Duterte,” Zhu said. “Furthermore, China would probably consider the terrorist problem a regional one rather than only considering its relations with the Philippines.”
...Xu Liping, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, shared the view that it was “highly possible” that China would respond positively to the deal as it had already cooperated with other Asian countries like Malaysia to fight terrorism.
BACKGROUND - Chinese "Coast Guard" Ships
China is building and converting very large "coast guard" ships that are more tools of long range regional power projection. Participating in patrolling southern Philippine water soon may be Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) ship 2901. This is one of China's largest coast guard ship class, along with sister ship 3901, displacing 10,000-12,000 tons. Built in a Shanghai Jiangan Shipyard by China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC). For photo and comments see China Defense Blog more details in Popular Mechanics.
China is also modifying modifies 2,000 ton Type 053 frigates into coast guard ships, including CCG 1002 and 1003. Globasecurity lists several classes of CCG ships of different tonnages - all carrying the "Hai Jing" prefix which could be translated as "Chinese ship" .
Pete