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Against North Korea Nuclear Deterrence Surer Than Ballistic Missile Defences

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Shooting down NK ballistic missiles with AEGIS - SM-3 then THAAD in the boost phase and beginning of the mid flight phase is probably the best chance to shoot down the missiles. But still difficult to shoot down all. Shooting down single or multiple missile warheads in the terminal phase when they are plunging from space at hypersonic speeds is the most difficult time to hit them. (Map/Diagram courtesy US Missile Defense Agency, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin via CNN)
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Ballistic missile defences (BMD) to defend countries ever further from North Korea (NK) include:

South Korea (SK) relies on:
-  Patriot missiles, 
-  only one battery of US THAAD missiles (more blocked by China)
-  US ship based AEGIS aiming SM-3 missiles. Several ships per US carrier group) see Submarine 
   Matters’ article in April 2017.
-  SK does have AEGIS destroyers but they do net yet have SM-3. 
-  SK lacks its own nuclear weapons - the best deterrent against NK nuclear weapons

Japan has:
-  AEGIS destroyers mounting SM-3 
-  some AEGIS armed US ships may also protect Japan.
-  Patriot missiles
-  For more complete protection Japan should quickly purchase AEGIS ashore and/or THAAD. 
-  Japan lacks its own nuclear weapons - the best deterrent against NK nuclear weapons

Guam has:
-  THAAD
-  the US has nuclear weapons - the best deterrent against NK nuclear weapons
-  Japan’s new Defence Minister Onodera said Japan’s right of collective self-defence could legally 
    permit Japan to intercept NK ballistic missiles aimed at (or near) for Guam. But Japan's BMDs
    may be incapableof shooting down an NK missile launched for Guam.

Guam already in range. A risk is NK might aim to launch missiles near Guam but they might hit Guam by mistake - thus resulting in US retaliation. NK is steadily developing ICBM with the range to hit Australia. (Map courtesy The Daily Telegraph).
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Australia has:
-  no SM-3, THAAD or Patriot missiles. A major reason is that they would likely be very ineffective
   against ICBM warhead re-entry vehicles once the ICBMs have reached Australian airspace from
   China, Russia or North Korea. Also Australia, with its spread out cities is much more difficult to
   defend than close together cities in SK, Japan or Guam.
-  the best deterrent against NK is nuclear weapons. Australia lacks its own nuclear weapons - 
-  Australia, like SK and Japan, therefore relies on the US nuclear weapon deterrent

See this very useful interactive site(on SM-3, Aegis, THAAD and Patriots) from the US DoD Missile Defense Agency.

Pete

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