A most interesting report commissioned by businesman GaryJohnston has been released today (September 27, 2017).
The report Australia’s Future Submarine Getting This Key Capability Right (September 2017) (Media Release and whole Report(PDF 12MB)) was written by Australia’s Insight Economics consultancy.
The report was launched by ANU Professor Hugh White and also by Michael Keating (former Head of the Australian Public Service) at the National Press Club, Canberra ((September 27, 2017). A transcript of the Press Club launch may follow tomorrow.
Some central issues in the report include:
1. capability gap - any midlife upgrade of the 6 Collins subs might only make them useful until
around 2030. But the future submarine "Shortfin" may only be operational in 2040. Hence
Australia may lack submarines for 10 years.
Suggestions:
2. rather than extend Collins, take urgent steps to acquire 6 off-the-shelf submarines, modified to
extend their range and built in Adelaide. At the National Press Club it was suggested 2 submarine
builders be asked to submit interim (but already operating) submarine designs. They are Germany
(maybe TKMS’s Type 212s/214s/218s/Dolphin 2s) and France (Naval Group’s Scorpenes)
builders be asked to submit interim (but already operating) submarine designs. They are Germany
(maybe TKMS’s Type 212s/214s/218s/Dolphin 2s) and France (Naval Group’s Scorpenes)
3. because of the long transits to the Navy’s areas of operations, acquire a submarine tender (ship)
forward based in Australian waters.
4. the 6 interim subs and tender might cost under $10 billion.
5. hold a review on whether Australia should either acquire more off the shelf
submarines; or build the Shortfins; or acquire nuclear subs [eg. Barracudas]
PETE COMMENT
Suggestions that Australia's interim and/or future submarines have Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) could delay either build by 10 years. AIP is less problematic.
An order of 6 interim submarine Scorpenes with AIP, built in Adelaide, would make the most sense as:
- legal problems of already signed agreements (with Naval Group) would be minimised
- many Scorpene submarine parts, supply chains, personnel and operating methods would be
common to the later Shortfins
- engineering and legal continuity with Lockheed Martin integrating the combat systems into
Scorpenes could more easily carry over to the Shortfins
Scorpenes could more easily carry over to the Shortfins
- Naval Group is the only Western supplier that can offer both (conventional) SSKs and then
by the 2040s.
Pete