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North Korean Hwasong-15 Barely An ICBM "with light to no payload"

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Sources (but in particular North Korea’s Central News Agency (KCNA)) announced that a Hwasong-15 ICBM was test-fired at 3am Pyongyang time, November 29, 2017. It was launched near
 Pyongsong, NK, and reached an altitude of 4,475 km over a flight distance of 950 km. It splashed down 53 minutes later at a planned point in the Sea of Japan. See MAP and Range Graph 1. below.

Wikipedia carries expert advice on the Hwasong-15 “Based on its trajectory and distance, the missile would have a range of more than 13,000 km (8,100 miles) – more than enough to reach Washington DC. and the rest of the US”. However preliminary calculations placethe range from 13,000 km on the high-end "with light to no payloads" to 8,500 km with more standard 500 kg nuclear payloads. See Range Graph 2. below.

COMMENT

With a "light to no payload" the Hwasong-15’srange indeed covers all of Earth's continents, except South America and Antarctica. So the Hwasong-15 could hit the city of Darwin Australia with a 500 kg nuclear warhead and Australia’s more southerly cities with a light to no payload.


Experts may be again under-rating the pace of North Korea’s ICBM-nuclear warhead advances when theycast doubt on North Korea’s ability to master the technology needed to design a warhead capable of withstanding the enormous pressure of re-entry into the earth’s atmosphere and suggested the isolated country may still be years away from developing a credible delivery vehicle for a nuclear weapon.”

MAP Hwasong-15’s  flight (Map courtesy CNN via Twitter 29 November 2017)
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Range Graph 1. The Hwasong-15 ICBM's test-flight on November 29, 2017 (Diagram courtesy Australia's news(dot)com(dot)au on 29 November 2017)
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Range Graph 2. Indicating Hwasong-15s of 13,000 km range with "light to no payloads"could hit Washington DC. and the rest of the US, (Courtesy many sources viaUS Public Radio International (PRI))
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So should we be worried about North Korea's Hwasong-15s?

Pete

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