China is struggling to achieve economic growth reliant on domestic consumption, Instead it is being fueled by unsustainable lending. Such lending is based on infrastructure investments (even though the average returns on those investments are nil). All this, and the following, will delay the time that China’s GDP will surpass the US GDP.
China produces far less oil and gas than its main competitors the US and Russia. China therefore has to import oil and gas more expensively and inefficiently than the US and Russia. China's coal is highly polluting.
China has insufficient clean water (especially in northern China) too little arable/farm land, too high a concentration of cities (too many people), too many factories and power stations. All this is leading to dangerously unhealthy air, water and food pollution for the population.
China has many current and future labour problems: The price of Chinese labour is no longer cheap since 1990. There is a coming demographic inversion with too many people by 2030 over 60yo, causing huge spike in health care costs, supported by too few offspring under 60 working.
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China's overly large population (one dot represents 100,000 people). (Source Thorium)
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China has insufficient clean water (especially in northern China) too little arable/farm land, too high a concentration of cities (too many people), too many factories and power stations. All this is leading to dangerously unhealthy air, water and food pollution for the population.
Solutions? Spreading population?:
North? China has difficulty expanding north over the border to Russia due to Russia’s military superiority. Russian conventional or nuclear armed 9K720 Iskander short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) are aimed at China. Also China has cooperative trade with Russia in energy and many weapons sectors (including conventional submarines and high performance jet fighters).
East? Expansion East into South Korea and Japan is complicated by their own military and US nuclear and conventional forces. North Korea now has a preventative nuclear deterrence.
West? into Kazakhstan (protected by Russia). India and Pakistan have preventative nuclear deterrents
East? Expansion East into South Korea and Japan is complicated by their own military and US nuclear and conventional forces. North Korea now has a preventative nuclear deterrence.
West? into Kazakhstan (protected by Russia). India and Pakistan have preventative nuclear deterrents
South? Bangladesh is already overcrowded and serves as a source of cheap labour.
More possibilities expanding south into poorly defended Southeast Asia including:
More possibilities expanding south into poorly defended Southeast Asia including:
Thailand (noting many Chinese in frontier cities),
Cambodia (to build that mega deep water port).
Laos
Philippines
Indonesia
Laos
Philippines
Indonesia
- A long way to control from China.
- A Chinese company has already leased the strategic Port of Darwin for 99 years.
- After India China is the largest source of immigrants to Australia.
Does China have any viable solutions to its problems?
Pete