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TKMS and Saab developing Horizontal Multi-Purpose Locks (HMPLs)

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As Australia's competitive evaluation process continues there are increasing options in terms of:

-  vertical multi-purpose locks (VMPLs) (most developed by the US and there called "Virgina Payload Tubes (VPTs)") and

-  horizontal multi-purpose locks (HMPLs) that are being developed by Saab-Kockums and TKMS-HDW. Saab may fit a 1.5 meter HMPL (which Saab calls a "Multiimission Portal") to the A26 submarines that Saab is building for the Swedish navy. 

VMPL and HMPL's are being built to potentially carry:

-  extra torpedos 
-  extra anti-ship missiles
-  extra land-attack missiles (like the Tomahawk)
-  diver swim out cell
-  diver delivery vehicles
-  an unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) too large to fit in torpedo tubes, or 
-  UUV that cannot be reversed back into torpedo tubes.

This is a cutaway that TKMS released in September 2015, of a Type 216. The thick torpedo tube appears too large to be a 650mm torpedo tube. The inclusion of what may be a 1.5 meter tube may be TKMS's semi-public way of indicating that a horizontal multi-purpose lock (HMPL) is an option. It would be cheaper, lighter and involve less re-arrangement than the vertical multi-purpose lock (VMPL) that TKMS is also offering. (Courtesy TKMS via news-com-au)
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The proposed design of the 1,000 ton TKMS Type 210mod displays an HMPL (a grey tube) more distinctly. The HMPL sits below what appear to be 4 x 400mm (Baltic small style) torpedo tubes.(Courtesy TKMS website)
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The Saab Australia site image can be expanded here. Note large looking (perhaps 1.5 meter) HMPL or "Multimission Portal" (a Saab registered trademark).

The Saab site description indicates - "Saab's A26 [submarine] design includes a new innovative 6m x 1.5m Multimission Portal flexible payload capability with a lock system in addition to its conventional torpedo tubes. The lock system makes it easy for commandos to enter and exit the boat, and is large enough to allow the launch and retrieval of Unmanned Underwater Vehicles. UUVs are expected to play a larger role in future submarine warfare. They can already provide advance surveying and sensing capabilities, and their modification toward a combat role is a certainty. This will likely begin with coordinated decoying tactics, but UUVs are expected to graduate to active combat capabilities before the A26 leaves service."
A UUV exiting an A26 submarine via its Multimission Portal (Courtesy Saab A26 website).

Pete

Russian Missiles Aimed at IS Targets in Syria - but 4 crash in Iran

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Artist's impression of a Klub (NATO designation "Sizzler", Russians oftern call it "Kalibr") missile probably being used in anti-shipping mode. It may also fly low, below radar detection, in land attack mode. As Islamic State probably has no anti-missile defences the Russian Klub's fired overnight would have mainly flown high to maximise their range.
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It appears that 4 of the missiles Russia aimed at Syria actually crashed in Iran. Iran and Russia have not admitted the full extent of Putin's failure.

Several hours ago a force of four Russian ships in the Caspian Sea fired 26 cruise missiles 1,500 km to hit 11 Islamic State targets in Syria. The ships were the Gepard class frigate Dagestan and Bauyan-M class corvettes, Grad SviyazhskUglich and Veliky Ustyug. The missiles they launched from their VLS were Klubs.

This is Russia's first use of modern cruise missiles for land attack that I know of. The missiles were surface ship fired Klub land attack missiles. Similar submarine fired Klubs are owned by India and Vietnam and used in their Kilo subs.

The Klubs used are capable of hitting a target within 3 meters at a range of up to 2,500 km (according to RT). Actual variant of the Klub could be the land attack surface launched "3M-14T - DOD designation SS-N-30A"

The firing of the Klubs a day ago represent a Russian gesture that Russia is now a major player in Middle East interventionist, power politics. The US, with its presumption that it controls how interventions go, is unnerved by the rapid escalation of Russian military force in the hithertoo US dominated Middle East. 

Only a week ago it was the beginning of Russian fighter-bomber airstrikes over Syria. Now it is regional missile overflights - overflying the US client state of Iraq. Russia flying missiles over oil important Iran and Iraq presents quite a geo-political-economic headache for the US. 

Russia is very much aligning itself with religiously Shiite (Islamic) dominated Iran, Assad's Syria and Iraq. This unnerves the Sunni (Islamic) states that the US protects, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and also Turkey (a country less religious but still mainly Sunni). Meanwhile Israel may welcome Russia providing support to Assad's rule in Syria. Even though Israel doesn't like Assad Israel would see the anarchy of terrorist groups (including IS) "ruling" Syria as worse than Assad.

Russian warships launching Klub cruise missiles.
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The missiles were launched from the Caspian Sea. Russia already had permission from Iran and Iraq to overfly their territory. The Assad government was pre-briefed by Russia about the missile strikes on IS. (Map courtesy RT)
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Airstrikes by Russia and the US coalition as at October 5, 2015. Note both Russia and the US have targeted the IS headquarters at Raqqa and IS near Aleppo.  (Map courtesy BBC).

Pete

Pakistan to receive Chinese Type 035 Ming class submarines

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Chinese video announcement. "Pakistan is to build 4 Type 035 Ming class submarines in Karachi and 4 AIP Mings will be supplied direct". (Youtube courtesy PLA-N)
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Chinese Ming class, Type 035 SSK, also may be upgraded to mount the Russian supplied Klub-S land attack missile. Similar to those fired by Russia at Islamic State targets in Syria.
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Pakistan has been keenly awaiting submarine assistance from its powerful Chinese ally and now details of the 8 submarines have emerged. Pakistan's Dawn newspaper reported, October 7, 2015, that:

"China will build in Karachi four of eight submarines that it is selling to Pakistan.
Minister for Defence Production Rana Tanveer Hussain told at the inauguration of the Defence Export Promotion Organisation (DEPO) Display Centre in the federal capital that the deal for the acquisition of submarines from China had been finalised and four of them would be built here.

He further said that construction of the submarines would simultaneously begin in Pakistan and China.

China, he said, would transfer the technology to Pakistan for submarine construction.

Mr Hussain did not specify when the construction would begin, but said it would be happening soon.

A training centre would be set up in Karachi for this purpose.


The minister did not either say which type of submarines were being purchased from China."

China, in recognition of Pakistan's government budgetary conditions, is providing affordable submarines on special credit terms with prudent technical upgrades. Upgrades may include air independent propulsion (AIP) and Russian supplied Klub-S "Sizzler" land attack missiles with a 300 km range - insufficient to reach Delhi but within reach of Mumbai.

HISTORY OF THE CHINA-PAKISTAN SUBMARINE DEAL

Tough negotiations between Pakistan and China have continued for almost a decade but have now been completed.


- March 9, 2011 The Hindu “Pak plans to acquire 6 submarines from China”


- March 1, 2014  Times of India story

- March 31, 2015 Dawn article  "ISLAMABAD:  Naval officials informed the Standing Committee on Defence Monday that the federal government has endorsed a summary to get eight submarines from China.".

- April 2, 2015 Reuters article  - - Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has approved a deal years in the making to buy eight submarines from China. A Pakistani government official said on Thursday, in what could be one of China's largest overseas weapons sales once it is signed. The  official...said the deal to buy the diesel-electric submarines would likely be signed by Chinese President Xi Jinping when he visits.


Chinese President Xi Jinping April 2015 visited Pakistan and a special agreement negotiated.




Diagram of the Ming 035 stealth submarine. Radar absorbent anechoic tiling will be placed on the hulls of the 8 Type 035s.

PM's Wife Honorary President, German-Australian Chamber of Industry and Commerce

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Stand for TKMS at PACIFIC 2015 as depicted on the German-Australian Chamber of Industry and Commerce website, 8 October 2015 "This year’s biennial Pacific International Maritime Exposition garnered an intense international interest driven by the Future Australian Submarine and Frigate programs as well as other programs to upgrade Australia’s naval capabilities." (Photo and description courtesy German-Australian Chamber of Industry and Commerce http://australien.ahk.de/en/news-pr/news-single-view/artikel/pacific-2015/?cHash=37846a657255a170515190aad8a3463c).
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That the wife of Australia's Prime Minister is Honorary President of the German-Australian Chamber of Industry and Commerce has no bearing on Prime Ministerial or Defence Department decision making for what is Australia's largest defence acquistion competition. Germany is one of the three competitors.

Large German company ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) is offering the Type 216 submarine to Australia. "ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems Australia Pty Ltd" is listed as a Member of the German-Australian Chamber of Industry and Commerce in its "Member Directory" (see under "T" or "Thyssen" http://australien.ahk.de/en/members/member-directory/?no_cache=1 ).

There is no evident concern from the other two competitors (Japan and France) in the multi $Billion Australia future submarine (Project SEA 1000) contest.

It is unclear whether office holders have similar roles in any Australian-France or Australian-Japanese Chambers of Commerce.

Perhaps TKMS has already won, or lost, anyway?

As at 3pm, October 10, 2015 (Australian Eastern Standard Time) the website of the German-Australian Chamber of Industry and Commerce "Board of Directors" listed major office holders http://australien.ahk.de/en/about-us/board-of-directors/ including :


"Patron / Schirmherr:

  H.E. Dr Christoph Müller 

  Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany
President / Präsident:

  Ms Lucy Hughes Turnbull AO
  Turnbull & Partners Pty Ltd

Vice-President / Vizepräsident:

  Mr Paul G Koenig 

  European Australian Advisory Group
Vice-President / Vizepräsident:
  Dr Wolfgang Babeck
  Buse Heberer Fromm"


The "About us" section of the  of the German-Australian Chamber of Industry and Commerce indicates http://australien.ahk.de/en/about-us/:

"AHK Australia - First Port of Call

Since its foundation in 1977 the German-Australian Chamber of Industry and Commerce (AHK) has become an important partner in fostering bilateral trade between Germany and Australia.
One of our main objectives is to advise German and Australian companies on market development and to support them in the initiation of business relations.
The Chamber is a membership organisation which offers an extensive networking platform; our know-how combined with the expertise of our partners makes us a strong and competent partner for all your business needs.
Our members come from a diverse group of industries. Membership is available to every (international) company involved in business relations between Germany and Australia."

Japan fine-tuning campaign for Australian Future Submarine

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COMMENT

Blogger Julien Araneta in Comments [October 12, 2015 at 5:14 PM] below identified an excellent  report by Navy Recognition (see below) which concerned PACIFIC 2015, Sydney Exhibition Center, Glebe Island, October 6 to 8, 2015. The original comments from Naval Recognition and additional comments in square brackets are diverse. 

The removal of Prime Minister Abbott has forced a rapid revision in Japan's selling style - which concentrates on presentations by civilians from Japanese industry and the Japanese Ministry of Defence. Hence Japan's Defence Ministry spokesman Masaki Ishikawa and Izumi Ishii of MHI now feature. Japan is tightening up its bid and making it more understandable for a wider public including influential Australian politicians. Japan has moved very quickly since Admiral Sato's delegation visited Adelaide in late August 2015

One issue that did not seem to be mentioned in presentations is pressure hull steel type to be used. This is noting the Soryu's NS110 may still be too confidential for Japan to transfer to the Australian Soryu and in any case may be too difficult to cut and reweld and is weakened when that occurs. The cut/reweld problem may particularly impact on Australian Soryus given their longer desired operational life of 30 years. Japanese Soryus are just operational for 24 years maximum. Thirty years means that the need to replace Australian Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) and diesel engines (for higher diesel usage - longer ranges travelled) is much more likely. It is therefore likely that Japan and Australia are formulating another pressure hull steel alloy with fewer issues.

ARTICLE WITH [COMMENTS]

See original Navy Recognition post at  http://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/news/naval-exhibitions/pacific-2015-naval-show-daily-news/3152-japans-government-and-industry-held-an-industry-briefing-on-soryu-submarine-at-pacific-2015.html. The text and photos from that Navy Recognition post are below. In square brackets are comments from Anonymous, S and Pete.

"Japan SEA1000 Industry Briefing at PACIFIC 2015

At PACIFIC 2015, the international maritime exposition currently held in Sydney Australia, the Japanese Government and Industry held an industry briefing on its bid with the Soryu for the SEA1000 program. Japan has a small pavilion at the exposition with scale models of the SEA1000 proposal, a Soryu class, an Atago class Destroyer and the 20DX Frigate.

At PACIFIC 2015, the international maritime exposition currently held in Sydney Australia, the Japanese Government and Industry held an industry briefing on its bid with the Soryu for the SEA1000 program. Japan has a small pavilion at the exposition with scale models of the SEA1000 proposal, a Soryu class, an Atago class Destroyer and the 20DX Frigate.Izumi Ishii, Vice President of Integrated Defence & Space Systems at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. during SEA1000 Industry Briefing at PACIFIC 2015

The briefing which Navy Recognition was attending was presented by Japan's Defence Ministry spokesman Masaki Ishikawa and Izumi Ishii, Vice President of Integrated Defence & Space Systems at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd.

The Team Japan as presented by the Defence Ministry spokesman is to incorporate state of the art technologies from both Australia and Japan into proven technologies for ocean navigation, to work with local industries in whatever arrangement best suited for the Australian Government and to involve Australian industries from the design phase throughout the program.

At PACIFIC 2015, the international maritime exposition currently held in Sydney Australia, the Japanese Government and Industry held an industry briefing on its bid with the Soryu for the SEA1000 program. Japan has a small pavilion at the exposition with scale models of the SEA1000 proposal, a Soryu class, an Atago class Destroyer and the 20DX Frigate.Japan SEA1000 Industry Briefing at PACIFIC 2015


According to Izumi Ishii, the submarine offered for the Australian SEA1000 program will be "a quite different submarine compared to the Japanese Soryu because of its American combat system, larger size and increase range but it will have some commonality with the Soryu".

MHI envisions two design centers: One in Japan and one in Australia with a growing Australian portion as the program transitions from concept design to basic design and eventually detailed design. A full scale mock-up of the submarine would be built in Australia for basic training (but no shore integration center is planned for now).

While both MHI and KHI (Kawasaki) build Soryus for the JMSDF, only MHI is involved in the competitive evaluation process for SEA1000.

The Japanese government has set up a website to help Australian companies getting in touch with Japan industries for the program. MHI will be conducting 1 on 1 meetings with companies accross Australia over the next few weeks.

At PACIFIC 2015, the international maritime exposition currently held in Sydney Australia, the Japanese Government and Industry held an industry briefing on its bid with the Soryu for the SEA1000 program. Japan has a small pavilion at the exposition with scale models of the SEA1000 proposal, a Soryu class, an Atago class Destroyer and the 20DX Frigate.

["Anonymous" in Comments [October 12, 2015 at 5:17 PM] indicated SEA 1000 Concept (in the diagram above) shows double layer arrangement of future Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) (the Current Soryu adopts single layer arrangement of existing Lead-acid Batteries (LABs), and adopts [very difficult] Gas Tungsten Arc Welding (GTAW), Gas Metal Arc Welding (GMAW) and Shield Metal Arc Welding (SMAW), I think. Training of welders will be crucial element of technology acquisition, especially for NS110-GTAW. 


Anonymous added that the Japanese Ministry of Defence (MOD) may release a list of subcontractors which is partially disclosed. Translation and understanding of NDS (MOD Standards) are also very important. There are so many things to do.]

["S" in Comments [October 12, 2015 at 5:22 PM] indicated (along the lines) that Japanese research on new main batteries for submarine revealed that the energy density of LIBs was twice that of LABs and lifetime of LIBs was 1.5 times that of LABs. 

But, from analysis of “Life Cycle Cost (LCC) Management Reports on 23SS (LABs-Soryu) and 27/28SS(LIBs-Soryu)” and other budget papers, S concludes that the life time of current LIBs will be twice that of LABs [that is higher than "1.5 times"] and that prices of LIBs will be high. When adding 24-years of operational life of 22 Japanese submarines with 30-years operational life of the 8 Australian submarines, more than 300,000 LIB unit cells will be needed. There may be a reduction in the price of LIBs caused by mass production effects.] 

FURTHER COMMENT

Reduction of LIB prices may also occur due to much more diverse and frequent non-submarine uses such as:

-  in UUVs for civilian and military purposes  
-  in large land vehicles (eg. trucks for mining) as well as cars and 
-  much more common Tesla like (solar to battery) static use on an industrial scale.

Cost of LIBs will, of course, be one item in the many items that make up the submarine's up-front, training, running and other maintenance costs.

Right up until the winner is announced Japanese delegations will likely be travelling around Australia to promote their SEA 1000 solution to politicians, the RAN, businesses and wider public (through the media). Delegations will also be more widely discussing industrial alliances with businesses in all Australian states and territories (as all will likely be involved in the build).

Thankyou Navy Recognition for use of your report.

Pete

Japanese warship at MALABAR 2015 - October 12-19, 2015.

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JDS Fuyuzuki, the most modern of the Akizuki Aegis style destroyers. It is attending the India-US-Japan Malabar 2015 naval exercise. Its Mk-41 Vertical Launching System is theoretically capable of accommodating Tomahawk land attack missiles


The annual Malabar naval exercise ("MALABAR 2015") from October 12 to 19 this year, includes Japan, the host India and regular attendee the US. Japan was just an observer in some previous Malabars. The main exercise scenario is the destruction of hostile submarines, warships and aircraft.

Japan’s and Australia’s participation, in Malabar 2007 (in late 2007) hosted by India, incurred China’s displeasure. On a civilian level Japan, Australia, India and the US contemplating informal discussions triggered a demarche (stern note) from China earlier in 2007. China was concerned about the creation of a China containment quadrilateral in 2007-2008 and is still concerned that one may emerge.

Japan’s one participant in MALABAR 2015 is the brand new JDS Fuyuzuki (Youtube) an Akizuki Aegis type destroyer.

Despite the US Navy’s perpetual budgetary complaints the US is represented by a supercarrier, USS Theodore Roosevelt, Aegis cruiser USS Normandy, littoral combat ship USS Fort Worth, the Los Angeles class SSN USS City of Corpus Christi and a P-8A maritime patrol aircraft.

The Indian Navy is represented by a Rajput class destroyer, Shivalik and Brahmaputran class frigates, a fleet support ship, the Sindhughosh (Kilo) class SSK INS Sindhudhvaj and a P-8I maritime patrol aircraft.

Whether Australia participates in future Malabar exercises remains an issue.

Please connect with Submarine Matter'sHMAS Sheean's visit to India and Malaysia - broader quadrilateral soundings, September 29, 2015.

Pete

The Identities of the Russians Involved in Shooting Down MH17

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The final report of the Dutch Safety Board on the shootdown by Russian made BUK missile of Malaysian Airlines MH17, is in line with reporting in July 2014 when the shootdown occurred. The Russians likely involved are indicated below.


Pictured is Lieutenant Colonel Igor Bezler of the Russian military intelligence directorate GRU, who commanded the separatists who shot down MH17. He has probably long been recalled to Russia to keep international investigators away from him.



Where MH17 was shot down. (Diagram credit). Also see http://www.flightradar24.com/data/airplanes/9m-mrd/#3d6095b .
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The "Buk" SA-11 surface to air missile (SAM) system that was used by the Russian military directed separatists. It shows the 25 km ceiling-altitude of the missile - which was more than enough to shoot down MH17 - hence murdering those aboard. (Diagram credit )
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A Buk missile system was captured by pro-Russian separatists 3 weeks before the shootdown. That short training period would have given the Russian rebel Buk missile operators sufficient time to learn how to fire the missiles - but, as it transpires, insufficient time to learn the procedures to avoid hitting civilian aircraft - like MH17.

JULY 18, 2014 - ONE DAY AFTER THE SHOOTDOWN

RUSSIAN MILITARY INTELLIGENCE CONTROLLED THOSE WHO SHOT DOWN MH17

"The Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200[ER] flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur was allegedly shot down [on July 17, 2014] by a group of Russian-backed Cossack militants near the village of Chornukhine, Luhansk Oblast, some 80 kilometers north-west of Donetsk, [in eastern Ukraine very near the border with Russia - see map above] according to recordings of intercepted phone calls between Russian military intelligence [GRU] officers and members of terrorist groups, released by the country’s security agency (SBU).
One phone call apparently was made at 4:40 p.m. Kyiv time, or 20 minutes after the plane crash, by Igor Bezler, who the [Security Service of Ukraine] SBU says is a Russian military intelligence officer and leading commander of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic. He reports to a person identified by Ukraine’s SBU as a [Colonel in Russian GRU military intelligence] Vasili Geranin [on Geranin see last paragraph of text on the Bezler Wikipedia article] regarding the shot down plane, which is about to be examined by the militants.
The second intercepted conversation released by [SBU] was apparently between militants nicknamed “Major” and "Greek" immediately upon inspection of the crash site. 
“It’s 100 percent a passenger (civilian) aircraft,” Major is recorded as saying, as he admitted to seeing no weapons on site. “Absolutely nothing. Civilian items, medicinal stuff, towels, toilet paper.” 
In the third part of conversation Cossack commander Nikolay Kozitsin talking to an unidentified militant cynically suggests that the Malaysia Airlines airplane could've been carrying spies, as, otherwise, it would have no business flying in that area.
Read the full transcript of an intercepted phone call below: 
Igor Bezler: We have just shot down a plane. Group Minera. It fell down beyond Yenakievo (Donetsk Oblast).
Vasili Geranin on Geranin see last paragraph of text on the Bezler Wikipedia article]: Pilots. Where are the pilots?
Igor Bezler: Gone to search for and photograph the plane. Its smoking.
Vasili Geranin: How many minutes ago?
Igor Bezler: About 30 minutes ago.
SBU comment: After examining the site of the plane the terrorists come to the conclusion that they have shot down a civilian plane. The next part of the conversation took place about 40 minutes later
40 minutes later.
Major”: These are Chernukhin folks who shot down the plane. From the Chernukhin check point. Those cossacks who are based in Chernukhino.
"Greek": Yes, Major.
"Major": The plane fell apart in the air. In the area of Petropavlovskaya mine. The first “200” (code word for dead person). We have found the first “200”. A Civilian.
"Greek": Well, what do you have there?
“Major”: In short, it was 100 percent a passenger (civilian) aircraft.
"Greek": Are many people there?
“Major”: Holy sh__t! The debris fell right into the yards (of homes).
"Greek": What kind of aircraft?
“Major”: I haven’t ascertained this. I haven’t been to the main sight. I am only surveying the scene where the first bodies fell. There are the remains of internal brackets, seats and bodies.
"Greek": Is there anything left of the weapon?
“Major”: Absolutely nothing. Civilian items, medicinal stuff, towels, toilet paper.
"Greek": Are there documents?
“Major”: Yes, of one Indonesian student. From a university in Thompson. 
Militant: Regarding the plane shot down in the area of Snizhne-Torez. It’s a civilian one. Fell down near Grabove. There are lots of corpses of women and children. The Cossacks are out there looking at all this.
They say on TV it’s AN-26 transport plane, but they say it’s written Malaysia Airlines on the plane. What was it doing on Ukraine’s territory?
Nikolay Kozitsin: That means they were carrying spies. They shouldn’t be f…cking flying. There is a war going on" ENDS
Pete

Japan's Lithium-ion Battery Advantage and Improved Snorkel

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This is a heavy duty Japanese made Lithium-ion Battery (LIB) of the type to be used in an energy storage facility in Chile (Photo courtesy GS Yuasa). GS Yuasa do not advertise LIBs for submarines but they would be in its "Industrial and Military" area.
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Please connect this article with the text and reader Comments of Submarine Matters’ article Japan fine-tuning campaign for Australia Future Submarine, October 12, 2015.

COMMENT ON LITHIUM-ION BATTERIES (LIBS)

The Japanese Government and private industry have been methodically analysing the performance of Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) intended for use in submarines for more than a decade. LIBs may be the technology area that Japan has the greatest lead over its French (DCNS) and German (TKMS-HDW) competitors.

It appears that recent performance data on LIBs for submarine are kept very confidential by all 3 countries, on commercial and national security grounds. This makes it very difficult to ascertain whether any of the 3 have superior LIBs.

The US may also be developing LIBs that may be useful for submarine use. It is unknown whether the US Government (and US private industry) would exchange more LIB technical information with the US’s Pacific ally, Japan, or its NATO allies, Germany and France.

Japan's GS Yuasa makes LIBs for a wide variety of heavy industrial and military (including submarine) uses. The heat sink-weight of batteries and other measures should contribute to safety.

S’s TRANSLATION OF A JAPANESE DOCUMENT

In a Comment on October 12, 2015 at 10:33 PM"S" provided a translation from a 2007 Japanese Ministry of Defence report on LIBs  http://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/hyouka/seisaku/results/18/jigo/sankou/jigo05_sankou.pdf 

“FY2006 Policy Evaluation Report (Result of Policy Implementation)” by Department of Finance & Equipment from Oct/2006 to Mar/2007

Project Name: Research on new main batteries for submarine

Policy System: I-4-(2)-2 Research (Development)

Abstract:
We studied high performance main batteries as main batteries for next submarine, which is alternative of current lead acid batteries, and got necessary technological data.

Budget: About 4,6 billion yen

Evaluation

1. Aim of Project
Lead acid batteries have drawbacks such as heavy weight, large volume, cumbersome treatment and long charging time. The aims of this project are to study lithium ion batteries with high energy density as main batteries for next submarine, and to demonstrate their feasibility and effectiveness.

2. Status of Achievement

Effect of Achievement

We established technology base of large lithium ion batteries with high capacitance for main batteries of submarine by achieving following technological terms (a-d). We obtained technological data on performance, safety and life of submarine main batteries, which would contribute to enhancement of stealth ability, motion performance and attack avoidance ability, extension of submerging period, and improvement of maintenance

(a) Energy density
By adopting lithium ion batteries, we realized new batteries with twice higher energy density per unit weight volume than that of lead acid batteries.

(b) Charging efficiency
We confirmed that lithium ion batteries showed more efficient charging and lower reduction in capacity at high efficient discharging than lead acid batteries.

(c) Safety
We confirmed that lithium ion batteries ensured designed safety in overcharging, overdischarging and external short circuit situations.

(e) Repeatable numbers of charge and discharge cycle
We confirmed that lithium ion batteries showed 1.5 times larger repeatable numbers of charge and discharge cycle than lead acid batteries, having excellent life time.

(2) Period of Achievement

We started research trial in 2002, finished laboratory testing by 2005.

(3) Profit
In this research, we have tried realization of lithium ion batteries with high capacity considering implementation and established new technology base in a short period.

["S" in Comments [October 12, 2015 at 5:22 PM] indicated (along the lines) that Japanese research on new main batteries for submarine revealed that the energy density of LIBs was twice that of LABs and lifetime of LIBs was 1.5 times that of LABs. 

But, from analysis of “Life Cycle Cost (LCC) Management Reports on 23SS (LABs-Soryu) (see Soryu Table) and 27/28SS(LIBs-Soryu)” and other budget papers, S concludes that the life time of current LIBs will be twice that of LABs [that is higher than "1.5 times"] and that prices of LIBs will be high. When adding 24-years of operational life of 22 Japanese submarines with 30-years operational life of the 8 Australian submarines, more than 300,000 LIB unit cells will be needed. There may be a reduction in the price of LIBs caused by mass production effects.] 

A good commentary on Submarine Lithium Ion Batteries is at Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter (APDR) October 2015 edition, Vol. 41, No.8, pages 46 to 48.

EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST "SEA 1000 JAPANESE GOVERNMENT & INDUSTRY"

Japan is liaising with Australian industry more closely and is seeking Expressions of Interest in the diverse areas for any future SEA 1000 contract – see http://gateway.icn.org.au/project/3720/sea-1000-japanese-government-industry.

An example under http://gateway.icn.org.au/project/3720/sea-1000-japanese-government-industry is "3. Building" item "06. Inspection Service" which asks those interested to "Express interest for any submarine inspection service opportunities". S has provided examples of "Inspection Service" as follows:

"According to NDS Z 2 0 0 3 C ( 2 ) (Standards of Ministry of Defence: Non-destructive inspection of war ship steel and classification of its result), following non-destructive inspections are needed for steel; i) magnetic particle inspection, ii) dye penetrant inspection, iii) ultrasonic testing, and iv) radiographic testing. Qualification from level 3 to level 1 is required for each inspector."

For "3. Building" item "02. Welding" Inspection Service" it does not go down to the level of detail on whether Gas Tungsten Arc Welding (GTAW) of pressure hull naval steel NS110 is required.

Some anonymous advice is "the MOD may release a list of subcontractors which is partially disclosed. Translation and understanding of NDS (MOD Standards) are also very important. There are so many things to do."

IMPROVED SNORKEL

The MOD has highlighted some of its research achievements in its "Technical Research & Development Institute, R&D, Department of Development" website at  http://www.mod.go.jp/trdi/en/research/gijutu_senpa_en.html . Highlights include Sonar System for Next-Generation Submarines, Heavy Weight Torpedo G-RX6 and Snorkel System for Next-Generation Submarines.

Snorkel System for Next-Generation Submarines shortened as Improved Snorkel comes with this diagram and description:

"In order for our submarines to cope with the future situation properly, we are also developing and implementing the snorkel power generation system which to be smaller size and higher power to make platform more silent and covert." (Photo and text courtesy Japanese Ministry of Defence)
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The most publicised advantage of the Improved Snorkel system for the future Soryu is its ability to operate in typhoons/major storms, often described as higher sea states.

An equally important, though lesser known innovation, is its higher power allowing snorts to be quicker, thus reducing the near surfaced danger period. The ability of LIBs to be charged more quickly than lead-acid batteries is a major advantage. The smaller size of the snorkel should reduce the chances of it being seen visually or by radar. 

In Comments [at October 15, 2015 at 12:42 AM] S advised (along the lines) There is very little information on the Improved Snorkel. S estimated air intake velocity for the big snorkel. The diameter is estimated from a picture of snorkel and the statement from the Japanese Navy the “snorkel of the Soryu is as big as a drum”. When that snorkel it operating to two Soryu standard 12V/25/25SB diesel engines the maximum intake velocity at full power operation is very fast (135km/h). Even in gentle rain, but not substantial wave conditions, kilograms of water will be introduced into the snorkel in an hour at a 135km/h intake velocity. The design of the Improved Snorkel system is a critical factor for quick charging the LIBs."

S added "By the way, acoustic stealth performance is not expected in snorkel operation. MAN diesels show 100-115DB of noise, I do not think that new KHI diesel engine will show drastic reduction in noise. Current 12V/25/25SB generates terrible noise in surface operation. Also huge amount of exhaust bubbles from the snorkel generates easy-to-detect noise.”

Comment

A stealthy snorkel system may disperse diesel exhaust better in the water so it is less easily chemically “sniffed” by manned aircraft, UAVs, surface craft or other sensors. Heat/infra-red signature or water disturbance by snorkel, exhaust or snorkel wake may be less. Snorkels can be better camouflaged for night, day and storm use. Snorkels can be better streamlined allowing a submarine to operate on snorkel more quickly through the water. Perhaps a snorkel can be made taller,  allowing “snorting” at a deeper-safer depth for the main sail and main hull of the submarine. 

Pete

Indonesia-Russian talks, Amur submarines, fighters & reactors

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KRI Nanggala (402) is the second of Indonesia's current Cakra class submarines. 
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Just about the boppyist Submarine Youtube Submarine Matters has ever run (this just happens to be the Bananarama version and aren't they nice :)  The Youtube shows the many phases of Improved Chang Bogo construction in South Korea - with 3 Improved Chang Bogo (Type 209s) being built for the Indonesian Navy. One Chang Bogo was to be built in Yogyakarta - but just building one there wouldn't justify the high production line costs. Notable parts of the Youtube include at:
1 minute - operation of a UUV including mine detection, 1min 20 secs - installing lead-acid batteries into a sub, 2m 30s - installing a Permasyn Motor, 4m 15s - some automatic welding equipment then inspecting weld work, 5m 15s - Indonesia's KRI Cakra (401), 6m 20s - installing diesel engines
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An Improved Kilo (Project 636) at top of diagram. Then two Amurs - the 1650 ton (surfaced) 1650 then the smaller 950 (theoretically squeezing in 10 VLS).
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Since 2007, if not earlier, the Indonesian Navy has considered buying between two and ten Russian Kilo submarines. Sometimes new Kilos are mentioned and sometimes used. However many times the Indonesian Navy wants Russian submarines the broader Indonesian Government (in which the Army is influential) presumably says no. It could also be that Western countries, including the US, dissuade Indonesia from getting too close to the Russians via submarine purchases. Submarines are high price items that would require substantial numbers of Russian naval and technical advisers in Indonesia.

Russia has supplied advanced Sukhoi fighter-bombers to Indonesia for years but only in small numbers.

Part of the reason for not buying Kilos has been inadequate aid or lack of easy credit terms from the Russian Government. Low oil prices (Russia's main trade revenue earner) has often made it difficult for Russia and Indonesia to conclude a deal.

However the increasingly militant foreign/defence policies of President Putin may possibly override such financial concerns. Russia may even offer as yet unbuilt and unsold Amur submarines instead of the 30 year old Kilo designs. Indonesia might take the risk of being the first customer for Amurs. Also Amurs may suffer from Russia not yet producing a mature AIP system - a system Indonesia might prefer in expensive new submarines.  

Russia Beyond the Headlines (RBTH) October 15, 2015 reported increasing negotiations between Indonesia and Russia in mid October 2015 http://asia.rbth.com/politics/2015/10/15/3_key_areas_in_russia-indonesia_ties_50049.html including:

"Defense

In September 2015, the Indonesian government said it would buy a squadron of Sukhoi Su-35 fighters to replace its outdated US made F-5 Tigers. Jakarta also plans to buy 5 Russian submarines.

Initially Indonesia looked at buying Kilo class diesel electric submarines, but later chose the more advanced Amur class submarine, which is the export version of the Lada class. 
Russia is ready to loan Indonesia $3 billion for these purchases.

According to industry analysts, Indonesia may also be looking to buy medium-range anti-aircraft [surface to air (SAM)] missiles. The country already has a number of Sukhoi fighter jets [Su-27s and Su-30s], Mi-17 and Mi-35 helicopters, BMP-3 amphibious infantry fighting vehicles, one BTR-80 wheeled amphibious armored personnel carrier and Kalashnikov AK-101 and AK-102 rifles.

Nuclear energy

In June 2015, the countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the construction of large nuclear reactors and floating nuclear power stations.

In an interview with RBTH Indonesia, [Indonesia's] ambassador to Russia, Djauhari Oratmangun, said nuclear power plants could help meet Indonesia’s growing demand for electricity...."

ANONYMOUS COMMENTS

Anonymous, over the last two days, has made some very interesting comments on these Indonesia-Russia negotiations:

"Indonesia's extravagant wish to buy 10 Russian Kilos was, as far as I can tell, driven by its Defence Minister [General (Ret.) Ryamizard Ryacudu] who seems to be a pretty hardcore Russophile. Cooler-headed Indonesian observers I talked with says that Indonesia may buy two Improved Kilo, but there is nothing concrete about that and it might be zero given the current Indonesian economic weakness.

The $3 billion in the RBTH article matches what Indonesian sources said, so that part seems correct.

Indonesian military officials and politicians, egged by Russia, have often stated that they are going to buy this or that from Russia without consideration on what they're going to use it for or how they are going to pay for it. There is a small but vocal Russophile faction, but most of the time the sane majority prevails and those statements were quietly ignored. However, once in a while they do throw a bone at the Russophiles to placate and retain their political support.

I rate the Su-35 procurement as likely, and the 5 Amur submarine procurement as unlikely. A half-half compromise of 8 Su-35 and 2 Amur is also possible. Militarily that is nuts, but hey, thats politics. Getting both is financially impossible and irresponsible. Even Russian credit doesn't stretch that far.

Russia also makes lots of noise about selling nuclear power plants to Indonesia. This is actually pretty plausible. Despite the Ring of Fire [earthquake-volcano zone] location, the physics of plate tectonics actually means that there are several geologically stable spots in Indonesia. Some of these spots are sufficiently inland or sheltered to be safe from tsunamis. 

Whether Indonesia will build utility scale nuclear power plants and who gets the contract remains to be seen though. I am quite certain that Indonesia will build them eventually though. Indonesia will run out of natural gas within 20 years and of coal within 50 years and despite all the talk about renewables, the actual growth rate of renewable energy use in Indonesia is not enough.

However, in the near term, the only confirmed plan to build a nuclear reactor in Indonesia is the 30 MW experimental reactor in Serpong to replace the 30 year old experimental reactor of similar rating (used to make medical isotopes and breeding new rice variants, among other things, but not actually connected to the power grid) that is reaching its end of service life. Russia is likely to get this project, but this is still far far away from an actual nuclear power plant. 

Russian media has this habit of talking big, but the actual realization is often much smaller and more uncertain than they make it to be."

Pete

Turnbull Govt New Policy - 70% Future Submarine to Be Built in Australia

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With the end of Parliamentary Question Time finished in the first week of (Prime Minister) Turnbull's Government some observations can be made.

The replacement of Tony Abbott with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is worrying Japanese submarine sales teams in Adelaide and Canberra. There is concern that understandings to buy the Japanese submarine have now been cancelled.

Turnbull’s diplomatic style and attitude to any alliance with Japan is unknown. Abbott’s sudden closeness to Abe may need to be recreated by Japan.

Turnbull is politically a moderate while Abbott and Abe were kindred conservatives.

Turnbull’s wife, Lucy Turnbull, is powerful in her own right. Her most prominent past role was Lord Mayor of Sydney.

Turnbull's current attitude to the China military threat may not be the same as Abbott’s. The views of Turnbull’s Defence Minister, Kevin Andrews or a replacement, may be more influential. The trilateral Japan-US-Australia alliance (or quadrilateral - adding India) is probably still the informal though not official policy.

It has yet to be confirmed in Hansard (officially recording Parliamentary House of Representatives statements) whether Kevin Andrews, who is still Defence Minister, stated in Parliamentiary Question Time (September 17, 2015) that perhaps 70% to 80% of new submarine work could be done in Australia. If so this may signal a change in policy. Note that the current feeling by industry in Australia is that Australia will order 8 submarines overall – not 12.

[Fairfax, Sydney Morning Herald journalists reported (September 17, 2015) the same Andrews statement:
"I see that one of the bidders has said that they can build a significant part of a submarine here in Australia - some 70 to 80 per cent," Mr Andrews told Parliament. "That means that we're going to have more jobs, a significant part of that build, perhaps 70 to 80 per cent of submarines, built here in Australia." Note the DCNS offer described in the same article.]

Perhaps in Japan’s favour is that Australia still appears locked into using the US submarine combat system - giving the US considerable political, economic and alliance influence over Australia’s choice of submarine.

Japan needs to be prepared for “build in Australia” or at least the Hybrid Build option which may mean 70% build in Australia. The build percentage could conceivably include submarine steelmaking in Australia.

Pete

Iran’s submarine forces

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Iran's main naval base is at Bandar Abbas. But if the Strait of Hormuz was blockaded the Iranian fleet (including submarines) would be bottled up in the Persian Gulf. Iran has therefore been building up naval facilities at Chabahar - less easily blockaded.

Iran has a small navy with a small submarine force of 3 Russian built Kilo class 2,300 ton (surfaced) and many more mini-submarines. Most are at Iran's main naval base of Bandar Abbas. In a major war those unfortunate Kilos would be rapidly destroyed as they can only operate in small well identified parts of the very shallow Persian Gulf (average depth is 50 meters and maximum depth is only 90 meters) and must travel  through the narrows of the Strait of Hormuz. See map with depths below.

The very shallow depths in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz force ships and Iran's Kilo class subs into very restricted waters. This makes Kilos even more vulnerable - one reason why Iran has gone for mini-subs A third of world oil that travels by sea goes from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. 
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Irans most important mini-submarines are 21 Ghadir class 115 ton (surfaced). They have 2 x 533mm torpedo tubes for torpedos or mines. Mini-subs permit safety in numbers against the powerful Western forces in the Persian Gulf. Numerous mini-subs also permit "swarm" tactics against more formidable, but less numerous, Western naval vessels. If just one Ghadir sank or at least ruptured a tanker's tanks this may be a major environmental and economic disaster for the region. (Photo courtesy FARS News Agency via Covert Shores

The congested, shallow, hence noisy waters of the Strait of Hormuz may limit the effectiveness of fixed or floating sound-acoustic sensors. However more effective may be magnetic anomally technology including detectors (indicator loops) slaved to remote control arming and firing mines.

Iran is better known for developing swarm tactics using small fast surface suicide boats. See them firing small missiles at a mockup of a US carrier. One minute in land based anti-ship missiles are fired.

Pete

Russia selling land attack Klub Missiles to India, Kilo sub upgrade

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A submarine launched land attack Klub ("Sizzler") cruise missile. Note that the more accurate designation for such a Klub is 3M-14E Klub S - DOD designation SS-N-30B. Basic length 6.2 m, 450 kg warhead. Range 300km. Russia is also selling SLCM land attack Klubs to Vietnam for use by Vietnamese Kilos.
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INS Sindhukesari is to be the first Indian Kilo sub to receive the land attack Klub upgrade. (Photo courtesy Indian Navy via IDRW-Org)
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REPORT

Following Russia’s October 8, 2015 demonstration that it can operate land attack cruise missiles over long distances a Russian upgrade to some of India’s Type 877 (older version) EKM (export model) Kilo submarines is interesting.

India's 9 working Kilos are known as the Sindhughosh class. They have had anti-ship capable Klub (NATO name is "Sizzler") missiles for several years. Now the Klubs on 4 Kilos will be augmented by or replaced by land attack capable Klubs.

The Indian Navy is signing the $771 million contract with Russia to extend the service life of the 4  to 35 years. Thirty years is the international average. The contract is with Russian shipbuilder Zvezdochka and will be sending the first submarine, INS Sindhukesari, for the refit in Severodvinsk Russia, in June 2016. Once INS Sindhukesari is refitted the Indian Navy will decide whether to upgrade the remaining 3 Kilos in India or again in Russia. If in India the 3 Kilos will be refitted with Zvezdochka’s assistance by India’s Reliance Defence and Aerospace company at the Pipavav shipyard in Gujarat.

The Russian Navy has done this 'second refit' to its own Kilo fleet.


ISSUES

1.  It is interesting that just 4 Kilos are to be refitted instead of all 9 servicable Kilos. This is noting the 10th INS Sindhurakshak suffered a catastrophic explosion/fire in August 2013 and is probably a write-off. First to be refitted, INS Sindhukesari, is one of the most recent 4 servicable Indian Sindhughoshclass Kilos built. If modernity is the criteria then the other three to be upgraded might be INS Sindhukirti then INS Sindhuvijay, then INS Sindhurashtra.

2.  It is interesting how the land attack Klub program interplays with other Indian SLCM programs including BrahMos (300 km range) and Nirbhay (1,000 km) programs. Any of these SLCMs could be made nuclear tipped. Nuclear tipped Klubs may be a response to the possibility of nuclear tipped Pakistani SLCMs.

3,  If the land attack Klubs were nuclear tipped how would they relate to K-15 (700-1,000 km) shorter range SLBM plans?

4.  Under MTCRland attack Klubs would officially be limited to 300 km range but given Russia’s recent 2,000 km range Kalibr demonstration a longer range Klub may be India's more quiet wish.

5.  It is unclear with this October 2015 refitting plan cancels or is in addition to a July 2015 Indian Kilo refitting plan.



Pete

Philippines naval challenges - submarines less useful

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China's claimed territorial waters run close to Luzon and right up to southern Palawan. This makes Palawan of major importance for Philippine naval reconnaissance resources.
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In Submarine Matter's article Philippines Increasingly Interested in Submarines of June 9, 2015, my  suggestion was an update of South Korea's Dolgorae class mini submarines (above). At 175 tons, with two torpedo tubes, crew of 14, Dolgoraes are affordable. Upfront purchase price, basing, maintenance and crewing all make sense given the Philippines budget. South Korea itself  produced its Dolgorae's in the 1980s-90s to accustom its Navy to submarine operations.

Recommendation of an update to the Dolgorae is also in the context of higher priotities for the Philippine Navy which mitigate against heavily investing in submarines. Such priorities for the Navy and Coastguard include:

-  handling natural disasters mainly in the form of regular typhoons (like Koppu right now) that cause destruction, starvation and disease. Naval resources are particularly necessary given the Philippines 7,000 isolated islands and many parts of the larger islands that have limited road access. Landing craft that can bring supplies to shattered coastal communities are in demand. The landing craft supplied to the Philippines include Australian Balikpapan class (up to 520 tons) and 2 US supplied Bacolod City class landing ships (4,265 tons maximum).

-  another major non-state challenge is secessionist Islamic and other movements on islands which may require the landing of infantry and equipment to counter these movements. Again landing craft/ships are useful. Also the two Makassar class landing platform docks with landing craft and helicopters can counter threats.



The Youtube features landing craft and especially landing platform docks. New corvettes and frigates may please some but are probably unaffordable given wider demands on limited budgets.

-  a third challenge is fishing and South China Sea islands disputes with China, Taiwan and other Southeast Asian countries. The landing ships and landing platform docks come in handy for projecting power, show the flag and resupply Philippine island garrisons. Coastguard cutters and similar size naval ships are also useful.

-  Philippine warships fighting against Chinese ships would be counter-productive. The Philippines supporting US and Japanese ships with information and port access might be more useful. 

It is only to China's advantage that some Southeast Asian countries are involved in some island disputes among themselves in the South China Sea. Unity in the face of the common Chinese challenge would be better. Unity would also encourage US, Australian and Japanese solidarity against China.
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Pete

South Korean HHI's HDS-400 Small Submarine Mystery

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Above is South Korea's HDS-500 (aka KSS-500A). Does Hyundai Heavy Industry (HHI's) HDS-400 look like the South Korean design concept above? Or does HDS-400 look like the TKMS Type 300 design concept below? 

A TKMS Type 300 (for 300 tons surfaced) design concept. (Diagram courtesy Turkish Navy "ship bucket")
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It has been reported in late September 2015 at IHS Jane's Navy International and herehere and here that Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) is building a small submarine, known as the HDS-400, for a secret naval customer. Apparently one Kim Moon-ju, a Communications (Public Relations) Officer for HHI, would not divulge details of the customer. The HDS-400 reportedly weighs 400 tons (surfaced), is 40 m long, and has a maximum speed of 15 knots. Those specifications may suggest a submarine that can approach a well guarded enemy coast, insert or extract special forces or spies, or operate more securely in shallow seas. 

The main mysteries include who is the lucky naval customer and how is the HDS-400 propelled? 

One approach to answering such mysteries is to look at South Korea's small submarine record. I classify a midget or mini-submarine as 200 tons (surfaced) or less and a small submarine as over 200 tons. Since 2011 South Korea has been trying to market a design variously known as the HDS-500, KSS-500A and HDS-500RTN (when recently offered to Thailand). The HDS-500 design weighs 500 tons (surfaced), is 37 metres long and could be propelled by Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) alone with the LIBs charged from a generator on the wharf. No diesels means no noisy, exposed, indiscrete snorting is necessary. Or the HDS-500 could have diesel engines to charge LIBs.

Note that if the HDS-400 is launched before 2020 it might still rely on lead-acid batteries depending on how South Korea's and maybe Germany's LIB development programs are going. This recognises that South Korea has mainly relied on German Type 209 and 214 designs to date. A relationship that may partially continue.

If a 100 tons lighter HDS-400 is LIBs only this could widen its appeal both to the South Korean Navy as a customer or to a foreign customer.

Reasons the South Korean Navy may be an HDS-400 customer include:

-  need to trial the sub with realistic testing as it is an unusual size, battery only and new style LIB submarine.
-  if diesel engines charge LIBs it would be valuable testbed for subsequent LIBs on future larger submarines used by South Korea and perhaps by Germany. South Korea is developing a future larger submarine variously called KSS-3, KSS-III, D-3000 and KSS-3000 with perhaps a launch by 2025 timeframe which may be well aligned to use LIBs.
-  South Korea needs some mini-small subs to test ASW warfare forces and sensors. This is because its main opponent, North Korea, uses mini-subs frequently.     
-  South Korea's remaining two Dolgorae class mini-subs are still operational but were launched in 1990 and 1991. So they are nearing the end of their operational lives (2020) and need to be replaced if South Korea wishes to maintain a mini-small submarine capability. 

Reasons a foreign navy my be the first or later customer for the HDS-400 include:
A foreign customer need not be small as a small battery only (or LIB only) submarine could approach a coast that has a higher intensity of ASW sensors or shallower water than a standard size submarine of 1,000 tons upwards. Possible navies interested are many, including:

-  Turkish Navy that was considering TKMS Type 200 (diagrams below) and Type 300 (diagram above) designs in the past. Turkey has built and operates full size TKMS subs.
-  Vietnamese Navy - Vietnam will soon have all 6 Kilo subs in total  - in Comments for Submarine Matters recent Philippines article "Anonymous - from Europe"said "The Vietnamese Navy acquired several ["Yugo" class mini-subs of about 100 tons] from N-Korea to preserve the skills & knowledge and use them for Special Operations in the South China Sea ... rumors on Viet forums is that the VN-MoD has placed an order for 4 Hyundai HDS-400A. The first is under construction in S-Korea and there might be "ToT"? involved for the remaining units. The N-Korean midget-subs are nearing their service-life later this decade. This is an excellent opportunity for Philippine Navy to piggyback and place an order. VN can benefit from lower unit-prices. Those subs cannot win a war, but could very useful for recon, sabotage etc. Just like VN in 1990s they could be foundation a fleet of larger SSK later."
-  Taiwanese Navy. This might explain South Korea's secrecy. It would be easier to build and hand-over a submarine to Taiwan before China decides to publicly object. Just 400 tons makes an HDS-400 a defensive submarine.
-  many other western-friendly navies that already have full size subs could be future customers

Western-friendly navies with limited budgets and/or have to operate in shallow water, include:

-  Royal Thai Navy
-  Philippines Navy
-  Sri Lanka
-  Bangladesh
-  maybe Myanmar/Burma
-  many in Europe, Africa, Middle East, Latin America

So, like the great Type 218SG mystery, the who is buying HDS-400 mystery? will eventually be revealed.


USEFUL WEBSITES ON MIDGET AND MINISUBS


This Wiki website mentions many other midget or mini-submarine consumer and producer countries. North Korea is a politically less popular supplier or on-seller. Yugoslavia, when it was one country, was a producer. Italy was a producer and still may be.

Covert Shores also has a wealth of detail and diagrams on midget or mini-subs.


Above and below are concept drawings of a TKMS Type 200 (200 ton surfaced) mini-sub design (Drawings courtesy Turkish Navy shipbucket)

Both the TKMS Type 200 and Type 300 designs can use strap on heavyweight (533mm) torpedos, one on each side, and/or lightweight (400mm or less) torpedos fired from torpedo tubes.

Pete

Soryu photos and diagrams on the way to winning (maybe)

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S, in Comments [at October 24, 2015 at 11:26 AM], advised that Soryu SS-508 due to be launched next week (November 2, 2015) will include the newly developed TCM (Torpedo Counter Measures) MOD (Mobile Decoy) as well as a NAE (Noise Augmentation Emitter). Photos and diagrams appear difficult to find? S indicated that from recent news "I feel that Japan may win the CEP." To which Pete says

Diagram - Inside the Soryu Submarine

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"wispywood2344" has drawn and labeled this very useful diagram of the Soryu.  A larger version of the diagram is at http://blog.livedoor.jp/wispywood2344/others/Soryu_cutaway.svg.  --- Looking at the diagram: -  The coloured sections (1 to 12) are within the pressure hull where the crew lives. The pressure hull is protected by the strongest steel - Japanese Naval Steel (NS110).  The

The Russian Cable Cutters Are Coming :0

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In World War Three those dastardly Russians might cut our cables! Funny - the Internet is designed to minimise the communications impact of WW3 like scenarios. Click on this site for much expanded undersea cable map. (Map courtesy Alfa img) --- Brace yourself, with the thought "Anything is possible!" If you recall Submarine Matter's Russian "Drone" and Submarine Propaganda - But Whose? be

Prime Minister Turnbull Remain Neutral on Submarine Issues

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New Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, relaxed but careful in power. He won't be drawn on submarine issues. (Photo courtesy The Guardian)
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During an October 28, 2015 interview on ABC Radio 891 in Adelaide, South Australia, Prime Minister Turnbull refused to pre-empt the Competitive Evaluation Process (CEP). This is most irritating for South Australians. Turnbull remains balanced and popular - such a change from the dark days of former Prime Minister Abbott.

1st Article


PM distances himself from subs pledge

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has distanced himself from a promise made before the last election to build Australia's next submarine fleet in South Australia.

The federal government is still undergoing a competitive evaluation process, despite David Johnston, the former defence minister, pledging the 12 submarines would be constructed in [South Australia].

Mr Turnbull told ABC radio on Wednesday he wouldn't go "back into the archaeology" of what was said by [Senator David Johnston], but there will be a substantial defence industry in South Australia. 
See WHOLE ARTICLE


PETE's COMMENT

I interpret Jenning's unusual "metal bashing" comment, in the ABC Online article, to mean welding specialists from Japan will do the welds even if they do it in an Australian shipyard. If it is Japanese welders then use of the the very difficult to weld of NS110 in Australian Soryus is more likely. 

It appears from the ABC Radio interview that the Turnbull Government is not necessarily tied to assembling the future submarines in Adelaide, South Australia. 

This may be because Turnbull and Defence Minister Payne have now had more time to recognise that other states, particularly Victoria and Western Australia, have strong claims to shipbuilding experience and efficiency

Six Liberals from South Australia may have been part of the 54 Liberal Party votes that were essential to give Turnbull power on September 14, 2015. But the 6 may have had no real choice. Abbott’s clear "Build in Japan" decision would have provided even less likelihood of any submarine build taking place in South Australia.

On September 23, 2015 Industry Minister Christopher Pyne appeared to confirm that the submarines would be built in South Australia but that might have just been a short-term tactic of the Turnbull Government to make the 6 South Australian Liberals feel that they had achieved a victory. Pyne's September 23 statements may also have been made for temporary consumption by South Australians. 

So the Turnbull views on ABC Radio above may indicate a longer-term reality that the Turnbull Government will divide the submarine between all the States. 

This may be in broader recognition that naval shipbuilding is an Australian national activity not just South Australian. Submarines are not the only items in the naval shipbuilding mix. South Australia can also benefit from being part of the Frigate and Offshore Patrol Vessel builds.

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2nd Article

Meanwhile Australia’s ABC Online, October 28, 2015, interviewed Peter Jennings made available to backup Turnbull’s comments http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-28/highly-likely-submarines-will-be-built-in-australia/6893766

“Peter Jennings, is executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)” and “chair of the Government-appointed independent expert panel providing advice to the minister on the [2015] Defence White Paper.”

"It seems to me highly likely now that these [submarines] will be constructed in Australia," Mr Jennings told 7.30. "I think that's the option that governments will find politically and technologically most suitable.

"Whether that is all going to be in South Australia or if we will have a mix of different states, that's a separate matter.

...[Jennings] said that should be the industry's focus rather than submarine hull construction, something he termed "metal bashing".

"It means dealing with the smart innards of these technical systems, rather than the metal bashing that's associated with hull construction, which is always the low-end and frankly the least value of these major projects," he said....

PETE's COMMENT

I interpret Jenning's unusual "metal bashing" comment to mean welding specialists from Japan will do the welds even if they do it in an Australian shipyard. If it requires Japanese welders then use of the very difficult to weld of NS110 in Australian Soryus is more likely. 

Pete

Undersea Cable Cutting History

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Undersea fibre-optic cable. Many layers. (Courtesy KCS
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Cables need armour (against sharks etc) and electical repeaters (signal boosters) (Courtesy several cable makers etc) 

In connection with the New York Times article about the Russians not even contemplating cutting honest Western undersea cables - that article seems like another attempt of the US Navy and industry to boost the sales prospects of the US Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs).

This useful book link indicates how long submarines have been involved in undersea cable cutting

"The U-151 [in 1918] also cut the undersea cables between New York and Nova Scotia and New York and Colon, Panama." 



U-151 had an amazing performance then and now. It was built in 1916 (World War One) 1,500 tons (surfaced), 18 torpedos, 2 x 6 inch guns, 56 crew and a range of 25,000 nautical miles. 


This begs the question why does Australia in 2015 think a 4,000 ton (surfaced) submarine is necessary to give less than half the range of a World War One submarine? 

Are we to believe the Australian submarine needs to be 1,000 tons heavier than any current conventional submarine in order to give it a "long range" of just 11,000 nautical miles?


The first CS Alert all you need to cut German Atlantic cables in 1914!
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Surface ships have been more commonly used to cut undersea cables. In World War One, the British General Post Office Cable Ship CS Alert was used to locate and cut five German cables heading into the Atlantic. A similar operation cut the German cables that connected Great Britain to the German coast. Successive missions by the CS Telconia and other ships later in the war eliminated the remainder of Germany's cable network and, in some instances, pulled the cables up with their grapples and relaid them into British and French ports for use by the Allied powers instead. Theft? See this source 

At the beginning of World War Two Atlantic cables would have been cut in 1939, mainly by surface ships. In the Pacific the Japanese advance was so fast that allied cable cutting sometimes took until 1945. "/C" commented  October 25, 2015 at 7:49 PM at http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2015/10/south-korean-hhis-hds-400-small.html about British XE-class mini-submarines  used to cut Japanese undersea cables in 1945 between Hong Kong and Saigon and between Hong Kong and Singapore. 

One of the cutters was Max Shean from Western Australia doing very hazardous duty.

Since 1945 cables continue to be broken by fishing trawlers, anchors, earthquakes, currents, and bitey sharks. In response to this threat to the communications network, the practice of cable burial has developed. Still, cable breaks are by no means a thing of the past, with more than 50 repairs a year in the Atlantic alone, and significant breaks in 2006, 2008, and 2009.


The risk of fishing trawler nets causing cable faults was exploited during the Cold War. For example, in February 1959, a series of 12 breaks occurred in five American trans-Atlantic communications cables. In response, a United States naval vessel, the U.S.S. Roy O. Hale, detained and investigated the Russian trawler Novorosiysk. A review of the ship's log indicated it had been in the region of each of the cables when they broke. Broken sections of cable were also found on the deck of the Novorosiysk. It appeared that the cables had been dragged along by the ship's nets, and then cut once they were pulled up onto the deck to release the nets. The Russian stance on the investigation was that detaining Novorosiysk was unjustified, but the United States cited the Convention for the Protection of Submarine Telegraph Cables of 1884 to which Russia had signed as evidence of violation of international law.

Thus the Russians do have a record of cutting cables but they do not need dark ominous $Billion dollar submarines or UUVs to do it – just small cable ships or even trawlers.

Shore stations can locate a break in a cable by electrical measurements, such as through spread-spectrum time-domain reflectometry (SSTDR). A SSTDR can detect a cable break in less than a second. 


Since the 1850s a number of ports near important cable routes became homes to specialised cable repair ships. Halifax on the Canadian coast was home to a half dozen such vessels for most of the 20th century including long-lived vessels such as the CS Cyrus West Field, CS Minia and CS Mackay-Bennett. The latter two were contracted to recover victims from the sinking of the Titanic. The crews of these vessels developed many new techniques and devices to repair and improve cable laying. See this source

In a major war cable cutting has three main advantages:

1.  It immediately disrupts an enemy's international communications.

2.  It also immediately disrupts domestic communications because, in the digital age, much of the internet AND telecommunications between major cities of the same country rely on international servers and links.

3.  Having lost international cables an enemy is forced to use satellites, microwave links and other radio links. Since the beginning of World War One cables have been cut, in part because radio links are much more easy to intercept - see  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Submarine_communications_cable#British_dominance_of_early_cable

Pete

Now Two Americans in Key Australian Future Submarine Roles

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Rear Admiral (retd.) Stephen Johnson (above) appointed General Manager, Australian Future Submarine Program in October 2015. Johnson joins former Secretary of the US Navy, Donald C. Winter, in key roles relating to the Australian Submarine Program. 
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The other American, Donald C. Winter. He is the senior member on the Expert Advisory Panel for the Australian Submarine selection. Winter is also former Secretary of the US Navy and former Corporate Vice President Northrop Grumman. (Photograph Courtesy Northrop Grumman)
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So with the appointment of Johnson where does that leave Australian Rear Admiral Gregory John Sammut who is still listed as Head Future Submarine Program?
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Sarah Kimmorley of Business Insider Australia, October 30, 2015 reports:


"US submarine ­com­mander Stephen Johnson has been appointed general manager of Australia’s biggest defence project, the navy’s new submarine fleet. 

The ­retired rear admiral was in charge of the US Navy’s undersea technology in Naval Sea Systems Command, commander of the Undersea Warfare Centre and director of the Strategic Systems Programs, overseeing the TRIDENT II strategic weapon system.

According to The Australian, Johnson’s extensive experience running large hi-tech projects, including development of the Seawolf class submarine, earned him the politically fraught role.


Johnson will be responsible for choosing the $20 billion new submarines to replace the six existing Collins-class subs...:  see WHOLE BUSINESS INSIDER  ARTICLE

PETE's COMMENT

The appointment of an American, Admiral Johnson, to manage the future submarine project, so early in the project, is a surprise. There appears to be no confirmation, that is no Media Releases by the Defence Minister or PM. 

It is notable that former Secretary of the US Navy, Donald C. Winter, is the most senior Member of the Expert Advisory Panel on the selection of the future Australian submarine. Winter was appointed to that role in June 2015 but nothing has been heard from or about the Expert Advisory Panel, since.

Submarine Matterslast month commented on the continuity of US influence in Australia's future submarine selection.

So these two appointments of Americans in key parts of the Australian future submarine program must have political significance:

1.  to the Pacific alliance with the US.

2.  does the appointment of Johnson and Winter almost, or certainly, indicate the selection of the Japanese submarine bid?

3.  the selection of the American AN/BYG-1 Combat System has been assumed as a given. Are the appointments part of a US-Australian bilateral process making that Combat System a certainty? 
See this February 2015 Defence Ministerial Media Releasewhere it says:

"the Government has endorsed a set of key strategic requirements for our future submarines:...c) The combat system and heavyweight torpedo jointly developed between the United States and Australia as the preferred combat system and main armament."

4.  is the appointment of Admiral Johnson a milestone or reflect a lack of tangible milestones in the Australian Submarine Program?

5.  does it mean the Submarine Program and the Defence White Paper will be delayed?

Having two Americans in key positions is not necessarily questionable. They may be the best men for the jobs. Equally Australians would fill such positions within the Pentagon-shipbuilding complex - wouldn't they?

Pete
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